
Bitcoin price is trading at $26,997 at the time of writing, marking a 60% drop from its all-time peak of $69,000 in 2021. When predicting the next bull market, exports raises questions regarding the potential future price of Bitcoin.
While most predictions are speculative, one analyst has devised a model that leverages historical data to forecast potential peaks and troughs in Bitcoin price over time.
Bitcoin price in previous cycles
Source: TradingView
Since its inception, Bitcoin has shown outstanding growth that has brought significant benefits to early long-term investors. This price increase can be observed when measuring Bitcoin price from trough to peak and between the highest peaks of consecutive bull markets.
In 2011, BTC peaked at just $33, followed by a peak of $1,240 in 2013, reflecting a 3,800% increase between peaks. Subsequent peaks in 2017 and 2021 were $20,000 and $69,000, representing increases of 1,600% and 350%, respectively. Comparable percentages are also observed when considering the bottoms of different cycles.
Notably, the relative growth between cycles has decreased, likely due to Bitcoin’s increased market capitalization, which requires more capital to influence its price. This decreasing growth is consistent with a mathematical model called logarithmic regression.
Logistic regression modelAn analyst has plotted various logarithmic curves on the Bitcoin chart to forecast Bitcoin’s potential tops and bottoms, using time as the only input. Such models can help investors by offering a simple way to see potential market trends and make proactive plans in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency.

Source: Bawdy Anarchist/ X
Bitcoin’s tops and bottoms typically occur every four years, allowing for predictions of potential Bitcoin prices in upcoming cycles based on logarithmic regression models.
Bitcoin price prediction2025-2026: Bitcoin price could peak in the third or fourth quarter of 2025 between $170,000 and $200,000, before bottoming out around $70,000 the following year.
2029-2030: Bitcoin price could peak between $410,000 and $440,000 and bottom the following year at around $230,000.
2033-2034: Bitcoin price could peak between $750,000-800,000 and bottom around $700,000 the following year.
In the late 2030s, the pattern begins to break down as the predicted peaks begin to fall below the predicted troughs, potentially indicating stabilization in Bitcoin’s price after its peak of $750,000-800,000.
ConcludeWhile models like these make insightful predictions about the potential future price of Bitcoin, it is important to acknowledge their limitations and the need for periodic updates with new data points. . Many external factors, including but not limited to regulatory changes , technological advances, and macroeconomic conditions, can significantly affect model accuracy.
Furthermore, the unprecedented nature of Bitcoin’s trajectory, having never experienced a recessionary environment, implies the potential for more significant failures than the models can predict. Forecasts should be viewed with caution against broader market trends and analysis as with any financial model.
Source:
https://tradecoind2.com/bitcoin-price-is-predicted-to-reach-170000-by-2025/