1. There Will Be Relief Waves in a Downtrend
Nothing goes down forever or up forever. In a downtrend, there will inevitably be relief rallies. As Ryan mentioned, there will be several deep drops in a year. You can apply this knowledge to catch these rallies.
2. Most Projects Won't Reach Their Previous Highs
Projects like XRP, EOS, QTUM, and last season's DeFi projects significant raised capital but couldn't find their peaks this season. This is because new projects with better technology and #DevelopmentTeam s are emerging. The interest in older projects is waning, they are overvalued compared to their real value, and many have already taken profits, especially for fundamental and platform coins.
3. BTC Leads the Market, ETH Leads Altcoins
BTC, born in 2009, has faced numerous challenges and legal issues. It has survived and continues to attract both big players and strong community support. When the market grows, it receives the first wave of investment and leads the market upward. ETH, with its smart contract technology, serves as the foundation for most blockchain platforms. To predict market trends, observe the ETH ecosystem.
4. Downtrends Are Market Cleansing
In the crypto market, various elements like builders, traders, developers, and whales participate. Some components, such as speculators, don't add much value but are necessary for liquidity and market excitement. Downtrends cleanse the market of non-valuable elements. The crypto market is still in its infancy and has potential.
5. Truly Good Projects Survive Downtrends
The financial market has cycles, and the lessons from the growth cycle of 2021 show that good projects emerge during the crypto winter. In 2018, coins like SOL, AVAX, DOT, and NEAR were born. Besides holding onto existing projects, watch for new ones.
6. Each Downtrend Is Different
This downtrend is larger in scale than the previous one. The participants and technology are different. The market evolves, so don't apply old knowledge to the new market. Stay updated, as human psychology is a critical factor.
7. The Market Grows After Each Downtrend
Currently, the crypto market's capitalization is small, but its potential can reach values similar to other financial markets. Despite legal constraints and negative perceptions, the market continues to develop and grow.
8. Priorities During a Downtrend
a. Balance your portfolio by holding top coins like BTC and ETH. Few people hold both, but they should be a priority. Increase your stablecoin reserves, cut losses on junk coins and meme coins, as most projects won't reach their previous highs.
b. Reevaluate your investment approach, including valuation, capital management, information search skills, and the ability to turn information into insights.
c. Maintain an open mindset and consider a bottom perspective to learn from changing market conditions. Offer a more objective view of issues.
d. Hold more cash than invest because in a downtrend, the trend is to withdraw cash from the market. Going against this trend can lead to more losses.
e. Avoid Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) against the trend, as it can increase losses. Only DCA if you are willing to buy at the price you can accept