Having situations like this where you are not entirely sure about whats going on, and can't decide which one would be better. In that situation I always suggest that you should not pick what is the "best", because there isn't really a "best", pick the one that you like. Aside from gambling which makes no sense, you just do what you do. I think speculating is not like gambling at all, because its definitely different, but you need to just focus on your own path. If you do what you want to do, then none of this matters at all, its just what people "talk" and talking is free, so just do what you want to do with your money.