The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic

[pawel7777]

I'm going to ignore the upcoming two fight nights and go straight to UFC 300 (Pereira vs. Hill). The whole card looks stacked! I cannot believe that the Jiří Procházka and Aljamain Sterling respective
fights have been demoted to prelims.

The early prelims (Bantamweight Bout - Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt) is a banger as well. I would be surprised if this doesn't end in a KO/TKO.

The entire early-prelims looks way better than any of the UFC Fight Night main cards:



I'm not sure if it's a good idea to have it that packed, especially when they struggle to make the "non-numbered" events interesting.

[pawel7777]

Looks like good old Weidman still has it in him. Despite being 39 he looked really motivated and hungry for a fight. They both pulled off a nice show for the fans.
You don't always get a TKO granted from a double-eye poke, but a win is a win. And it opens a possibility for a rematch.
Even without the controversial ending Chris looked better than Silva and won the first two rounds (at least that's what I got from the fight highlights I've just watched).

The main card results:

[notblox1]

Looks like good old Weidman still has it in him. Despite being 39 he looked really motivated and hungry for a fight. They both pulled off a nice show for the fans.
You don't always get a TKO granted from a double-eye poke, but a win is a win. And it opens a possibility for a rematch.
Even without the controversial ending Chris looked better than Silva and won the first two rounds (at least that's what I got from the fight highlights I've just watched).

He won, but many people are saying that it was a dirty controversial win because of eye poking.
I never liked him and his fighting skills, but reach advantage was crucial advantage in this fight, and his long fingers
Weidman is soon going to be 40 years old, and maybe it is better to retire with a win than to continue with a rematch.

[Zed0X]

Yeah, it wasn't a clean victory for Weidman but I don't think Dana would care that much about the fight. Silva is planning to appeal the decision to a no contest but I doubt it will end in his favor.

The discussion now is if the UFC would make policy changes to reduce eye pokes. Intentional or not, it still affects the outcome of the fight. Maybe it's time to change gloves?

[electronicash]

Yeah, it wasn't a clean victory for Weidman but I don't think Dana would care that much about the fight. Silva is planning to appeal the decision to a no contest but I doubt it will end in his favor.

The discussion now is if the UFC would make policy changes to reduce eye pokes. Intentional or not, it still affects the outcome of the fight. Maybe it's time to change gloves?

once in a fight i think is enough and that the fighter should avoid stretching his fingers to the man's face but weidman did it twice. it already meant he intentionally mean to do it.  and then he celebrates in the last round like he did the most remarkable fight of the night KO. he still think like he was once the most famous man that day when he defeat Silva who was showboating and he got lucky for it.

i think his father would not shout that's my boy this time. that's cheating.

[pawel7777]

He won, but many people are saying that it was a dirty controversial win because of eye poking.
I never liked him and his fighting skills, but reach advantage was crucial advantage in this fight, and his long fingers

I think the referee is much more to blame here, but I don't like how Weidman was celebrating his dirty win knowing what he did.
What do you guys think about Bo Nickal? He's rarely discussed in this thread. Obviously he's getting fast tracked to be a nef UFC superstar and have an impressive 5-0-0 record with all being first round finishes: 2 KOs and 3 submissions - all scored on "no-names", and his next opponent is also not really well-known either (which begs a question on why is it a main card fight of the UFC 300, when much more established fighters are on prelims or early-prelims). But I like how hardworking and dedicated he is. If the hype is real, he might be an American response to all the successful Dagestani/Chechen fighters. I wouldn't mind seeing him matched up against Khamzat.

[notblox1]

What do you guys think about Bo Nickal? He's rarely discussed in this thread.

I heard about from his wrestling history but he is still fresh in MMA.
He started in DW Contender Series few years ago, and I think he only had two fights in UFC, so it is to early to say.
Maybe I can comment more after I see him fighting with other top fighters, but I think he is going to struggle in stand up.

[pawel7777]

I heard about from his wrestling history but he is still fresh in MMA.
He started in DW Contender Series few years ago, and I think he only had two fights in UFC, so it is to early to say.
Maybe I can comment more after I see him fighting with other top fighters, but I think he is going to struggle in stand up.

He's a top-level wrestler who went into MMA after failing Olympic trials. Currently, his mma record is 5-0 but yeah, he has not yet faced any top opponent. Dana White is a big believer in him, as he put him on the main card of the UFC 300 despite much more recognisable fighters being placed in prelims or early prelims.
His next opponent is Cody Brundage, a 10-5 unranked fighter who is hardly a top fighter. But Brundage has a good finish ratio, so maybe he'll be able to test Bo more than his previous opponents.

[notblox1]

He's a top-level wrestler who went into MMA after failing Olympic trials. Currently, his mma record is 5-0 but yeah, he has not yet faced any top opponent. Dana White is a big believer in him, as he put him on the main card of the UFC 300 despite much more recognisable fighters being placed in prelims or early prelims.
His next opponent is Cody Brundage, a 10-5 unranked fighter who is hardly a top fighter. But Brundage has a good finish ratio, so maybe he'll be able to test Bo more than his previous opponents.

Olympians are great athletes but coming to MMA and UFC is a completely different story.
Wrestling is important but he needs to have other skills, and he needs more training and experience with boxing, kicking and standup.
Brundage coming from Muay Thai will be a challenge for Nickal, but Nickal has reach advantage.
UFC made a mess with UFC 300 but it should be interesting event to watch.

[electronicash]

He's a top-level wrestler who went into MMA after failing Olympic trials. Currently, his mma record is 5-0 but yeah, he has not yet faced any top opponent. Dana White is a big believer in him, as he put him on the main card of the UFC 300 despite much more recognisable fighters being placed in prelims or early prelims.
His next opponent is Cody Brundage, a 10-5 unranked fighter who is hardly a top fighter. But Brundage has a good finish ratio, so maybe he'll be able to test Bo more than his previous opponents.

Olympians are great athletes but coming to MMA and UFC is a completely different story.
Wrestling is important but he needs to have other skills, and he needs more training and experience with boxing, kicking and standup.
Brundage coming from Muay Thai will be a challenge for Nickal, but Nickal has reach advantage.
UFC made a mess with UFC 300 but it should be interesting event to watch.

and Nickal also have a ko punch. though we haven't seen him fought someone from the higher rank, i think he can actually make it to the top one day. the guy is massive so he is very noticeable in the UFC but he is taking the slow route from being part of the contender series to fighting in UFC for the 3rd time. if Dana favored him, he would have fight already the top fighters immediately like just like Alex Pereira.

i think he may just reach there after this fight and he is ready to fight someone like Khamzat.  Nickal as big as he is will likely not duck Khamzat.

[pawel7777]

The last event's main card results:



They say a win is a win, but that's not the kind of win Allen will be proud of. He was in real trouble as Curtis put him on wobbly legs and if he pressed harder, he probably could finish Allen with a KO.
I believe Allen was originally scheduled to fight Vettori, and I think Marvin is on a higher level than Allen.
It was a good fight to watch though as both of them went all out and were not saving themselves, to the point both had to sit down on the floor right after the final buzz.
I don't expect it will affect the ranking positions of either of them.

[Zed0X]

Curtis causing problems to Allen again even after taking the fight on short notice. The fight could have gone either way but I still find it crazy that one judge scored it 49-46. Anyway, it was still a great fight. These two deserve a rubber match.


It's finally the fight week for UFC 300!

I'm taking the following on single:
Charles Oliveira @2.80 (vs.  Arman Tsarukyan)
Max Holloway @2.50 (vs. Justin Gaethje)

At least one of them is going to win their fight.

[pawel7777]

(...) The fight could have gone either way but I still find it crazy that one judge scored it 49-46. (...)

Yeah, Allen looked flabbergasted when that was announced 

I'm taking the following on single:
Charles Oliveira @2.80 (vs.  Arman Tsarukyan)
Max Holloway @2.50 (vs. Justin Gaethje)

At least one of them is going to win their fight.

Odds are decent for both.
It's a well known fact that oddsmakers have strong preference to younger fighters, that's why you can get a good value bets betting on guys like Oliveira, who's not really that old at 34. He could still be in his prime. But since he hasn't fought in almost a year, I wouldn't bet on him personally.
As for Max, I also have a feeling he could win it. He's striking is really good and it won't be easy for Gaethje to connect. And I can't imagine Justin wanting to take it to the ground, where he probably have some advantage.

[notblox1]

Odds are decent for both.
It's a well known fact that oddsmakers have strong preference to younger fighters, that's why you can get a good value bets betting on guys like Oliveira, who's not really that old at 34. He could still be in his prime. But since he hasn't fought in almost a year, I wouldn't bet on him personally.

Odds are not always giving us the correct picture of upcoming fights.
I was shocked when I saw how low odds on Bo Nickal are to win against Cody Brundage, I would never put anything on his win, and I am considering taking a small bet against him.
I think we are going to see several big surprised in UFC 300 event.

[pawel7777]

(...)
I was shocked when I saw how low odds on Bo Nickal are to win against Cody Brundage, I would never put anything on his win, and I am considering taking a small bet against him.
(...)

I was thinking of that too.
Generally speaking, I don't think it makes sense to bet on anything below x1.10 on an mma fight (or even boxing), doesn't matter how good the fighter is. We've seen some weird injuries out of nowhere (e.g. Aspinall, Fiziev, Rakic), plus, there are lucky punches, disqualifications etc, there are too many things that could go wrong for such low pay-out bets to be worth it.