The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic

[pawel7777]

(...)
i think a lot of people lost in this fight card knowing that the favorite fighters lost their fight particularly Gamroot who his fans have been expecting him to win. but then again its also Dan hooker who is also an experienced fighter.

Yeah, Gamrot was a big favourite but he failed to deliver. He took a gamble accepting a fight with a much lower-ranked Hooker, in enemy's territory at a short notice, and it didn't pay off. It's a shame because he started the fight really well and it was going well until he got caught in the last minute of round one, and I don't think he fully recovered from that. He was also not effective with his grappling. He would take Dan down but wasn't able to do much on the ground. He could've gone for a ground and pound as he did in round one, but instead, he was overly focussed on trying to control Dan, which led to nothing.
Somewhat controversial decision, but Mateusz has himself to blame.

[electronicash]

(...)
i think a lot of people lost in this fight card knowing that the favorite fighters lost their fight particularly Gamroot who his fans have been expecting him to win. but then again its also Dan hooker who is also an experienced fighter.

Yeah, Gamrot was a big favourite but he failed to deliver. He took a gamble accepting a fight with a much lower-ranked Hooker, in enemy's territory at a short notice, and it didn't pay off. It's a shame because he started the fight really well and it was going well until he got caught in the last minute of round one, and I don't think he fully recovered from that. He was also not effective with his grappling. He would take Dan down but wasn't able to do much on the ground. He could've gone for a ground and pound as he did in round one, but instead, he was overly focussed on trying to control Dan, which led to nothing.
Somewhat controversial decision, but Mateusz has himself to blame.

even in the first round gamrot wasn't very effective. he was hurt by a hook. his takedowns seems aiming only to one leg and lifting hooker with it. if it was islam doing it, the other standing leg would be the next to be swept for hooker to lay flat. in a standing fight, it was hooker whos winning which is gamrot's fight plan is not at all working.

but looking at their faces and to decide for myself i think gamrot still made points better than hooker.   

[pawel7777]

So, apparently, Khalil Rountree confirmed in a recent interview that he isn't planning to shoot for a takedown when fighting Pereira in October:
https://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/khalil-rountree/khalil-rountree-reveals-he-isnt-planning-on-shooting-takedowns-against-alex-pereira/
Quick glance at Rountree's record and Wikipedia page: he has a background in Muay Thai and zero submission wins in his career. So at least we know why the UFC was so keen on matching him up against Alex.

[electronicash]

So, apparently, Khalil Rountree confirmed in a recent interview that he isn't planning to shoot for a takedown when fighting Pereira in October:
https://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/khalil-rountree/khalil-rountree-reveals-he-isnt-planning-on-shooting-takedowns-against-alex-pereira/
Quick glance at Rountree's record and Wikipedia page: he has a background in Muay Thai and zero submission wins in his career. So at least we know why the UFC was so keen on matching him up against Alex.

not surprising anymore. most likely the reason why Alex wasn't matched to someone from Dagestan who would control him on the ground. in his first fight in MMA he was pinned down several times by an unknown fighter. and was choked iirc.

Dana is protecting him now as he is one of the cash cow in UFC. he is now like Jon Jones that supposedly has to fight Aspinall because he got the interim title but Dana seem preventing it from happening and instead Jon is to fight Stipe for the title while Stipe hasn't fought for years.

[Zed0X]

^ Jumping straight to UFC 307?

For UFC 306, early odds shows that Sean O'Malley is the slight underdog against Merab Dvalishvili. I didn't understand why at first because I don't watch Merab fights but it looks like his main weapon is his offensive grappling. Since that's like a bad match up for a striker like Sean, the odds makes more sense now.

[pawel7777]

^ Jumping straight to UFC 307?

Only because of the controversial match-up 

For UFC 306, early odds shows that Sean O'Malley is the slight underdog against Merab Dvalishvili. I didn't understand why at first because I don't watch Merab fights but it looks like his main weapon is his offensive grappling. Since that's like a bad match up for a striker like Sean, the odds makes more sense now.

O'Malley has proven that he can take on wrestlers, but Dvalishvili is on another level, at least that's what he looked like when he dominated Cejudo (another wrestler). Sean will have a significant reach advantage and he knows how to use it. And I don't think Merab will be able to finish Sean off even if he manages to take him to the ground.

Betting odds for tomorrow's UFC fight night:

Jared Cannonier x2.95 vs. Caio Borralho x1.40   
Angela Hill x2.04 vs. Tabatha Ricci x1.78         
Ryan Loder x2.28 vs. Robert Valentin Frey x1.63
Kaan Ofli x2.80 vs. Mairon Santos x1.44
Neil Magny x6.75 vs. Michael Morales x1.11
Edmen Shahbazyan x1.33 vs. Gerald Meerschaert x3.35

Decent odds for Jared. He's an underdog due to his age and the fact the Borralho is on the rise, but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins this one.

[electronicash]

^ Jumping straight to UFC 307?

For UFC 306, early odds shows that Sean O'Malley is the slight underdog against Merab Dvalishvili. I didn't understand why at first because I don't watch Merab fights but it looks like his main weapon is his offensive grappling. Since that's like a bad match up for a striker like Sean, the odds makes more sense now.

O'malley has the reach and striking power to KO Merab but if that's what the odds says.  i will just find out which are the fighters to look up to win. i am also not sure how this will end because of the the odds. Omalley surely can deliver a KO. Merab couldn't always hold his opponent but seem like the bookmakers trusted him more.

but every time Dana despises a fighter, it always end up being the loser in his next fight. and Dana hates Merab. it might just be the case once again. can't say i will bet in this fight.

[pawel7777]

Just posting the results of the last night's main card:



I haven't watched any of those fights yet, but judging by the damage on the faces of both fighters in the post-fight interview, the main event could've been an interesting fight. I can't find any highlights videos (or a full fight) of it atm though.

[pawel7777]

(...)
I haven't watched any of those fights yet, but judging by the damage on the faces of both fighters in the post-fight interview, the main event could've been an interesting fight. I can't find any highlights videos (or a full fight) of it atm though.

Jus a follow up:
TNT has just posted highlights:

Pretty even fight until the very last round. I thought, given his age, Cannonier would gas out in the later rounds but he remained dangerous and explosive up till the end. I feel sorry for him as he had his moments and it looked like he might KO Borralho with those nice counterpunches, but Borralho was just a bit too good.
It's a small miracle Cannonier survived that knockdown in rd 5, so losing by UD is not so bad from that perspective.

[electronicash]

the hammer fists didn't  flat lined Cannonier. he lost the fight though. a bit fair in the beginning but Borral eventually made more significant strikes than Jared. Borralho even scored big in round 3 where he wobbled the legs of Cannonier. 

its insane to see Borralho claiming to be the face of MW already after just this fight when he is just in the 12th in the rank. he would likely fold if matched to Whittaker in his next fight.

[pawel7777]

(...)
its insane to see Borralho claiming to be the face of MW already after just this fight when he is just in the 12th in the rank. he would likely fold if matched to Whittaker in his next fight.

The rankings are yet to be updated, should take a day or two. Given Jared is (or was) ranked No. 5, it's possible Borralho will jump in his place and Jared will drop by a few places.

And ever since McGregor's self-promoting strategy turned out to be super-successful we have a lot of fighters talking big things about themselves hoping to copy his success even only to a small degree.

[electronicash]

(...)
its insane to see Borralho claiming to be the face of MW already after just this fight when he is just in the 12th in the rank. he would likely fold if matched to Whittaker in his next fight.

The rankings are yet to be updated, should take a day or two. Given Jared is (or was) ranked No. 5, it's possible Borralho will jump in his place and Jared will drop by a few places.

And ever since McGregor's self-promoting strategy turned out to be super-successful we have a lot of fighters talking big things about themselves hoping to copy his success even only to a small degree.

well people wouldn't mind if they claim something but not too much for he will be laughed at if its not going to happen. if Tank Davis claims to be the face of boxing, the fans wouldn't really mind it since he has really proven it many times in the ring and people will cheer for it.

anyway the next weekend's card is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Burns_vs._Brady




the cauliflower ears certainly looks like they experience a lot of trauma.


Welterweight   Gilbert Burns   vs.   Sean Brady            
Women's Flyweight   Jéssica Andrade   vs.   Natália Silva            
Featherweight   Steve Garcia   vs.   Kyle Nelson            
Flyweight   Matt Schnell   vs.   Alessandro Costa            
Lightweight   Trevor Peek   vs.   Yanal Ashmouz            
Preliminary card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight   Rong Zhu   vs.   Chris Padilla            
Light Heavyweight   Ryan Spann   vs.   Ovince Saint Preux            
Women's Strawweight   Jaqueline Amorim   vs.   Vanessa Demopoulos            
Lightweight   Isaac Dulgarian   vs.   Brendon Marotte            
Flyweight   Felipe dos Santos   vs.   André Lima            
Featherweight   Yi Zha   vs.   Gabriel Santos            
Middleweight   Andre Petroski   vs.   Dylan Budka            

[pawel7777]

Yup, nothing going on this weekend in the UFC and there's Burns Vs Brady the week after, on 7th/8th.
Gilbert's fights tend to be entertaining and Brady has an impressive 16-1 record, losing only to Belal (by TKO), so it should be interesting.
Brady is a x1.58 favourite, odds for Burns are x2.38. I'm not sure if it was due to injury (or injuries) but Brady only had 3 fights since Nov 2021, with his last fight being in Dec 2023.
Gilbert should be extra motivated to defend the family's name after his younger brother's, Herbert, poor performance (and 4th loss in a row) during the UFC 305.

[electronicash]

Yup, nothing going on this weekend in the UFC and there's Burns Vs Brady the week after, on 7th/8th.
Gilbert's fights tend to be entertaining and Brady has an impressive 16-1 record, losing only to Belal (by TKO), so it should be interesting.
Brady is a x1.58 favourite, odds for Burns are x2.38. I'm not sure if it was due to injury (or injuries) but Brady only had 3 fights since Nov 2021, with his last fight being in Dec 2023.
Gilbert should be extra motivated to defend the family's name after his younger brother's, Herbert, poor performance (and 4th loss in a row) during the UFC 305.

Burns is in 2 consecutive loss though. the fight would likely be a good match if Burns is in his prime but he is not and Brady is capable of destroying him at his stage. Its a 2nd chance for Brady to go up again. the fight card is full of fighters who lost in their last fight. but they are very much remarkable at one point like Steve Garcia and Matt Schnell. not so much promotion when its just a FN.

people are anticipating the UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili than this one.

[pawel7777]

Burns is in 2 consecutive loss though. the fight would likely be a good match if Burns is in his prime but he is not and Brady is capable of destroying him at his stage. Its a 2nd chance for Brady to go up again.

I think at this stage of his career, Gilbert is probably more concerned about giving a great show and not dropping from the top 15 ranking than about scoring a win. He probably only has a few fights left in him, given he's 38, I'd imagine his goal is not to aim for the belt, but to squeeze out as much money as possible by fighting often preferably against marketable names.

Anyhow, Chat GPT has some faith in him:



In other news, some time ago Merab Dvalishvili attacked a fan:

I was concerned he could be facing a few months' suspension similar to what Tsarukyan got for punching a fan, but it looked like Merab showed enough restraint at the end and didn't go too far with it. It was also almost 2 weeks ago (judging by the upload date) so if he was to get suspended, that would probably already have happened.