The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic

[electronicash]

So apparently Conor McGregor will be returning after all, but it won't be MMA but boxing.
Media are reporting the fight between Logan Paul and Conor is due to be finalised, it will take place in India, and the purse is either $250 million, or £400 million ($500m):
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/32539878/conor-mcgregor-logan-paul-fight-annoucement-teased/
https://www.gbnews.com/sport/boxing/conor-gallagher-logan-paul-fight-2670697324

Is there actually anyone interested in such fight to pay (anything) for a PPV? I'm not even sure if I'll be bothered watching highlights of it. How on earth can they afford to pay such amounts? It's either more of a hot air or they got some huge grant from India to promote their country.
But if there's indeed half a billion $ on the line for those two, it's almost like money is hardly worth anything anymore.

nice. it will not be good or him either in boxing or MMA his ankle is already broken. but the money is definitely  plus either he loses this fight or win. its just unbelieveble he pulled this deal of $250M.

yes they say India is not actually a boxing country. this is a country for slapping and ancient wrestling. it would be believable for Logan and Connor fight to be held in US or probably in Ireland his home. but this must be  fight that will make Dana frown again, people still thinks Connor represents UFC,

[pawel7777]

The recent news/rumour is that Jon Jones is asking for $30 millions to fight Tom.
I think he's in a good position to ask for that much, especially if this is the price he is asking to start the negotiations with. He might end up with a bit less but probably will get a cut from the PPV on top, so won't be at a loss.
Whether or not it will be his last fight largely depends on the outcome. If he were to defeat Tom, then why would he retire rather than go for another super-fight against Alex Pereira, which would be much easier for Jones (he would just need to take it to the ground).

From the UFC perspective, it's a bit tricky. Having Jones beat up Aspinall and retire straight after would be a bit of a disaster. They would be left without any dominant champ. Defeated Aspinall would not be half as exciting as he is now. But I think it's pretty clear we'll see that fight happening this year.

[electronicash]

The recent news/rumour is that Jon Jones is asking for $30 millions to fight Tom.
I think he's in a good position to ask for that much, especially if this is the price he is asking to start the negotiations with. He might end up with a bit less but probably will get a cut from the PPV on top, so won't be at a loss.
Whether or not it will be his last fight largely depends on the outcome. If he were to defeat Tom, then why would he retire rather than go for another super-fight against Alex Pereira, which would be much easier for Jones (he would just need to take it to the ground).

From the UFC perspective, it's a bit tricky. Having Jones beat up Aspinall and retire straight after would be a bit of a disaster. They would be left without any dominant champ. Defeated Aspinall would not be half as exciting as he is now. But I think it's pretty clear we'll see that fight happening this year.

i watched that rogan episode which joe really thinks jones will fight aspinall and he;d receive $30 Millions for it win or lose. that's a lot of money, when the fighter gets older that's when they realize they should have been paid more. if jones was just in boxing  he would be paid millions like 10M every fight. now he has to please Dana which Dana will also not let this slide. Dana is going to make an opportunity in this deal, make it to his advantage.

but then hope the fights happen without Alalkish and fight to be held in Saudi.

[pawel7777]

i watched that rogan episode which joe really thinks jones will fight aspinall and he;d receive $30 Millions for it win or lose. that's a lot of money, when the fighter gets older that's when they realize they should have been paid more. if jones was just in boxing  he would be paid millions like 10M every fight. now he has to please Dana which Dana will also not let this slide. Dana is going to make an opportunity in this deal, make it to his advantage.

but then hope the fights happen without Alalkish and fight to be held in Saudi.

I'm 99% sure the fight will happen. Not making it would make no sense and it will be a lose-lose situation.
There might be some harsh times during contract negotiations especially between Jones and the UFC (I don't think Tom will make any super high demands, but maybe he should), but they will come to an agreement eventually.
I think $30 million is not an unreasonable ask but I've no idea how much money the UFC is making on each event.

[electronicash]

i watched that rogan episode which joe really thinks jones will fight aspinall and he;d receive $30 Millions for it win or lose. that's a lot of money, when the fighter gets older that's when they realize they should have been paid more. if jones was just in boxing  he would be paid millions like 10M every fight. now he has to please Dana which Dana will also not let this slide. Dana is going to make an opportunity in this deal, make it to his advantage.

but then hope the fights happen without Alalkish and fight to be held in Saudi.

I'm 99% sure the fight will happen. Not making it would make no sense and it will be a lose-lose situation.
There might be some harsh times during contract negotiations especially between Jones and the UFC (I don't think Tom will make any super high demands, but maybe he should), but they will come to an agreement eventually.
I think $30 million is not an unreasonable ask but I've no idea how much money the UFC is making on each event.

Tom is part o the negotiation. if he receives considerably less in this fight because Jones is asking or more, this fight will be cancelled. Tom's team decides for his value in this match to show how good this negotiation takes place.  which is why it will not be surprising to see Mr White low balls the amount making this negotiation to take place longer than they see.

the UFC will focus more on earning much more on several fight nights to UFC 400 before Jones vs Aspinall finally materializes.  money will be the biggest issue because while Jones is determined to get $30 million, Mr White is also determined to profit by paying less to his fighters.

it is still with Mr whites decision though. if he is willing to pay $30 million. then yes. we sure would like to see them fight.

[pawel7777]

the UFC will focus more on earning much more on several fight nights to UFC 400 before Jones vs Aspinall finally materializes.  money will be the biggest issue because while Jones is determined to get $30 million, Mr White is also determined to profit by paying less to his fighters.

Yeah, with the high demands from Jones, and possibly Aspinall (although I think he'll be much more modest) despite the big hype, it might not be the most profitable event for the UFC if they end up sharing most of the revenue with the fighters.
But they have to go with it anyway, as letting that fight fall through would be a big dent in their reputation.

[electronicash]

the UFC will focus more on earning much more on several fight nights to UFC 400 before Jones vs Aspinall finally materializes.  money will be the biggest issue because while Jones is determined to get $30 million, Mr White is also determined to profit by paying less to his fighters.

Yeah, with the high demands from Jones, and possibly Aspinall (although I think he'll be much more modest) despite the big hype, it might not be the most profitable event for the UFC if they end up sharing most of the revenue with the fighters.
But they have to go with it anyway, as letting that fight fall through would be a big dent in their reputation.

Tom will demand how much he is worth to fight Jones. this should be big fight that they'd be force to give go. Mr White is rich he could really pay these guys with how much they want but doing so will  make every fighter try to do the same. to keep them in line, Mr White will rather be negotiating as low as possible.

i think he did it to Conor so the guy thinks he could keep asking. its why Conor's fight re cancelled because Mr White refuses to pay. would you really believe a pinky toe is reason? not everyone would.

[pawel7777]

Tom will demand how much he is worth to fight Jones. this should be big fight that they'd be force to give go. Mr White is rich he could really pay these guys with how much they want but doing so will  make every fighter try to do the same. to keep them in line, Mr White will rather be negotiating as low as possible.

i think he did it to Conor so the guy thinks he could keep asking. its why Conor's fight re cancelled because Mr White refuses to pay. would you really believe a pinky toe is reason? not everyone would.

I kind of assumed Tom will be much easier to please in terms of fight contract negotiations, as he could make a big name for himself by beating Jon, but on second thought, this would be the biggest fight in his career and there's literally no one else on the horizon that could even come close to Jones (maybe if Alex Pereira decided to move up, but that's a big maybe). So, for Tom, this might be the fight of his life, so it's fair for him also to expect decent pay out. So if all 3 parties: Jones, Aspinall, and the UFC want to see record profits, that could be a problem.

Anyhow, here are results from the last night main card. Only one fight went to the distance:

[Zed0X]

I was already expecting higher than their usual fight purse amounts when Jon hinted of fighting again after Stipe. I think the $30M price tag is just testing the waters. If that already includes PPV, it's probably a fair amount considering his past contributions to the organization. If not, then maybe he'll end up around $5M (exclusive of PPV). If Tom gets $2M - $3M + PPV from that fight, he'll be lucky.

[electronicash]

I was already expecting higher than their usual fight purse amounts when Jon hinted of fighting again after Stipe. I think the $30M price tag is just testing the waters. If that already includes PPV, it's probably a fair amount considering his past contributions to the organization. If not, then maybe he'll end up around $5M (exclusive of PPV). If Tom gets $2M - $3M + PPV from that fight, he'll be lucky.

Dana would be very grateful for such price. he been known to hold fighters til they get old and still in need to fight for money and if he hates Jones for doing all these demand he may just be the next Tony Ferguson. Dana will be happy to see this fight go on with this cost.

Tom will demand how much he is worth to fight Jones. this should be big fight that they'd be force to give go. Mr White is rich he could really pay these guys with how much they want but doing so will  make every fighter try to do the same. to keep them in line, Mr White will rather be negotiating as low as possible.

i think he did it to Conor so the guy thinks he could keep asking. its why Conor's fight re cancelled because Mr White refuses to pay. would you really believe a pinky toe is reason? not everyone would.

I kind of assumed Tom will be much easier to please in terms of fight contract negotiations, as he could make a big name for himself by beating Jon, but on second thought, this would be the biggest fight in his career and there's literally no one else on the horizon that could even come close to Jones (maybe if Alex Pereira decided to move up, but that's a big maybe). So, for Tom, this might be the fight of his life, so it's fair for him also to expect decent pay out. So if all 3 parties: Jones, Aspinall, and the UFC want to see record profits, that could be a problem.

Anyhow, here are results from the last night main card. Only one fight went to the distance:

fight nights are almost like in a small sparring gym with few people in it. but with so many KOs in this card, i didn't watch this one since i thought it will be just fighting women in the mud.

i read it on UFC forum they were laughing how Roman vs Curtis ended because Curtis just got knockout in the last seconds of the fight. but he could have won in UD if it didn't happen?
 

[pawel7777]

I was already expecting higher than their usual fight purse amounts when Jon hinted of fighting again after Stipe. I think the $30M price tag is just testing the waters. If that already includes PPV, it's probably a fair amount considering his past contributions to the organization. If not, then maybe he'll end up around $5M (exclusive of PPV). If Tom gets $2M - $3M + PPV from that fight, he'll be lucky.

I don't think the $30 million would include PPV, as PPV would not be a fixed amount but a percentage of the sales. Unless it's something like $xx millions + x% of PPV, but the total can't be less than $30m.

Tom is in a tough spot, as he doesn't have the leverage on the UFC that Jon has (i.e. "give me what I want or else I won't fight at all and retire"), but he can't settle for pennies as this could be the biggest fight of his career and there's nobody on the horizon that could be close to Jons calibre.

[pawel7777]

The UFC 311 is getting closer.
I don't expect any surprises in the main event. Tsarukyan is a solid fighter, but Islam is just slightly better in every aspect of the game. Unless Arman lands some lucky counter-punch, I don't see him winning.
As for Merab Vs Umar, I think it should be a pretty even fight, despite Umar being a clear favourite. Merab is well-rounded and unpredictable with a really solid wrestling, which could neutralise Umar's biggest strength.

Hill Vs Prochazka - a KO (on either side) is almost guaranteed. Bookies seem to agree, for betting on it going the distance you can get x2.83, while betting on a "No", only x1.35.

[electronicash]

can Merab really escaped the Umars grappling?  he been the top contender in this division and while Dana dislike Merab, i guess this is punishment. i think merab may just defend his throne once and its over for him.

with islam being really good not just taking down opponents but his boxing, i have him wining by KO.

[pawel7777]

So apparently Arman pulled out due to the back injury and Renato Moicano jumps in his place.
That's a bummer.
I don't know if Arman will get a shot at the title next, when he recovers or is the chance wasted.
Moicano is a decent replacement. On paper, he's not as strong as Tsarukyan, but the fact that Islam training camp was all set for Arman could work in his favour, and maybe he'd be able to throw something at Islam that he's not prepared for.
I guess Beneil will be skipping this one, but hopefully the UFC will pay him some compensation.

[pawel7777]

Merab delivered big time. His cardio was simply amazing and he's got that entertainment factor many fighters are missing. It could be heard by the support he received from the fans, who were cheering him super loudly whenever he was successful.
Very good fight overall, I think we'll see a rematch, maybe not immediately but at some point in the future.
I'm not sure what's next for Merab though, there aren't many worthy opponents for him in the bantamweight at the moment. Maybe a rematch with O'Malley or Yan? I don't know.

I expected Moicano to last a bit longer, but Islam is just that good. Props to Moicano for stepping up and saving the show. To his credit, he did a nice left and put Islam down, but I think it was more of a lost balance that a proper knock down, as Islam did not seem much affected by that.
For those who missed that, here's the full fight (2.5 mins video):