The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic

[electronicash]

^ I think the odds are just fair. Cejudo is already on a decline and a gatekeeper for the younger fighters to 'step on'. I don't know about the match up though because it seems a battle between two countries that 'hate' each other Maybe something is arranged here so as not to embarrass the great murica?

fix fights are not so obvious but maybe they can do it in a fight where one is clearly no chance. but Cejudo is one heck of a fighter in his days where he defeated Dillashaw and Mighty Mouse. if he loses,  he does have another career besides being a fighter, he is a trainer afaik. he won't end up like Tony or Alistair.

whichever his last fight ends i guess he can accept it. i read this is his last fight under his current UFC contract.

[pawel7777]

Belal posted this earlier today and looks like it's all confirmed. Maddalena will get his title shot on 10th May in Montreal.
Maddalena is currently ranked 4th so he's good enough to get a chance. I was surprised by that as I thought Shavkat is next in line, but now I read Shavkat is injured and won't be ready for May:
https://x.com/Rakhmonov1994/status/1892424493433573562

He says he'll face the winner later this year. If so, this sounds good to me.

[pawel7777]

It's official now. Ilia Topuria vacated his belt and is moving up to the lightweight.
https://bloodyelbow.com/2025/02/20/ilia-topuria-officially-vacates-featherweight-title-with-islam-makhachev-clash-reportedly-in-the-works/

That's a bold move. Dana wasn't very keen on letting him jump up to challenge Islam, so he left him no choice and vacated his belt. Weight cutting is a pain but I don't believe that was the main reason, Topuria is not particularly big featherweight and I don't think he ever missed weight. The truth is, he'll make much more money fighting anyone from the top 10 of the lightweight than he would for defending the featherweight belt. And fight with Islam could be the fight of his life, I'm glad he went for it.
My first thought when I heard the news was that the UFC will make him fight someone else from the lightweight before allowing him to have a shot for the belt, but the media are reporting that Islam Vs Topuria is already in the works.
Frankly, I don't see any other worthy contenders for Islam right now. Tsarukyan had his chance but blew it and won't be considered anytime soon. I just hope Islam doesn't do the same stunt and doesn't vacate his belt to move to the middleweight to fight Dricus lol

[electronicash]

Belal posted this earlier today and looks like it's all confirmed. Maddalena will get his title shot on 10th May in Montreal.
Maddalena is currently ranked 4th so he's good enough to get a chance. I was surprised by that as I thought Shavkat is next in line, but now I read Shavkat is injured and won't be ready for May:
https://x.com/Rakhmonov1994/status/1892424493433573562

He says he'll face the winner later this year. If so, this sounds good to me.

the last time they were suppose to fight in  UFC10 Belal wasn't able to make it because of his foot injury so instead Shavkat fought against Ian Gary Machado. this time around its Shavkat who isn't available because of an injury so Belal has to fight Maddalena.

These 2 Shavkat and Belal are just trying to go around so they can find interesting match ups in the welterweight division while there is no one else left in the lightweight they could find to fight Islam. it make sense to bring someone from featherweight like Tuporia.

Tuporia losing against Islam means Tuporia could fight  Poirier, Gaethje and Oliveira.

[pawel7777]

the last time they were suppose to fight in  UFC10 Belal wasn't able to make it because of his foot injury so instead Shavkat fought against Ian Gary Machado. this time around its Shavkat who isn't available because of an injury so Belal has to fight Maddalena.

Yeah, unfortunately, this means that Shavkat will have around 1 year break. Partially because of the injury and partially because he will have to wait for Belal (or Maddalena) probably till at least Nov/Dec, as I don't expect he would risk his number 1 contender position to fight anyone else.

(...)
Tuporia losing against Islam means Tuporia could fight  Poirier, Gaethje and Oliveira.

In case of failure, he could always go back to featherweight, but lightweight has the best paydays.

btw I've just learned Gaethje is fighting Hooker soon, on March 9th, it should be a good one.

[electronicash]

it only appears like UFC don't want Shavkat to be the champ yet. but instead they want Maddalena to be the champ first. i'm almost certain Belal will be the underdog and not win against Maddalena.

Maddalena wins then they will hype his fight with Kamaru or Brady and still Shavkay will stay in the rank. you could say he is treated unfairly not getting the belt all because he is too young to be a champ and might stay as champ as he could fight which will make the division boring.

[electronicash]

 

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Kape_vs._Almabayev

Flyweight    Manel Kape    vs.    Asu Almabayev             
Middleweight    Cody Brundage    vs.    Julian Marquez             
Lightweight    Nasrat Haqparast    vs.    Esteban Ribovics             
Featherweight    Hyder Amil    vs.    William Gomis             
Welterweight    Danny Barlow    vs.    Sam Patterson       
      
Preliminary card (ESPN+)
Heavyweight    Austen Lane    vs.    Mário Pinto             
Featherweight    Ricardo Ramos    vs.    Chepe Mariscal             
Bantamweight    Douglas Silva de Andrade    vs.    John Castañeda             
Featherweight    Danny Silva    vs.    Lucas Almeida             
Women's Flyweight    Andrea Lee    vs.    JJ Aldrich             
Flyweight    Charles Johnson    vs.    Ramazan Temirov             
Women's Flyweight    Montana De La Rosa    vs.    Luana Carolina

the next fight night is full of names i don't know but Manel Kape. his opponent isn't really a veteran in UFC but seem like they both have substantial experience in MMA and also a top fighter in their weightclass.

my analysis is that if Manel Kape didn't make it with Mokaev, he may not also defeat this Asu Almabayev. cool to see underdogs wins against a top fighter.

[pawel7777]

Dan Hooker pulled out of the UFC 313 due to injury and now the UFC is looking for a new opponent for Gaethje.
Some are suggesting Arman Tsarukyan, and I think it would be a good fight, but I'm not sure if Arman: a) would take such fight at all on such short notice; b) would be able to make the weight after he (allegedly) failed to do that the last time.
Some fighters already posted on social media offering themselves as replacements: Moicano, Fiziev and Gamrot. I'd be happy with either of them, as long as the fight doesn't get cancelled.

[electronicash]

Dan Hooker pulled out of the UFC 313 due to injury and now the UFC is looking for a new opponent for Gaethje.
Some are suggesting Arman Tsarukyan, and I think it would be a good fight, but I'm not sure if Arman: a) would take such fight at all on such short notice; b) would be able to make the weight after he (allegedly) failed to do that the last time.
Some fighters already posted on social media offering themselves as replacements: Moicano, Fiziev and Gamrot. I'd be happy with either of them, as long as the fight doesn't get cancelled.

its on the news its Rafael Fiziev to replace Hooker.  Fiziev isn't a very experienced than Gaethje and they fought before which Gaethje won. but who knows what could happen, i'm sure that last KO of Gaethje has traumatized him that every time someone throw a fist at him he'd be ducking his head.

i could bet on an upset which Gaethje might feel like he is being the target in a whackamole.

[pawel7777]

its on the news its Rafael Fiziev to replace Hooker.  Fiziev isn't a very experienced than Gaethje and they fought before which Gaethje won. but who knows what could happen, i'm sure that last KO of Gaethje has traumatized him that every time someone throw a fist at him he'd be ducking his head.

i could bet on an upset which Gaethje might feel like he is being the target in a whackamole.

Yup, I've learned about that yesterday. Fiziev should be a decent replacement.

I'm surprised to see Fiziev as a favourite, I would think the odds should be the other way around. But I guess bookies factored in the bad KO that Justin suffered in his last fight and maybe they expect a little bit of decline in his performance since their last fight in March 2023, which was fairly even, given he's 36 now.

Here are the odds for the event (per DuelBits):

Djorden Santos x1.55 Vs Osman Díaz x2.45
Mairon Santos x1.28 Vs Francis Marshall x3.75
Alex Morono x5.33 Vs Carlos Miranda x1.16
Joshua van x1.52 Vs Rei Tsuruya x2.57
Brunno Ferreira x2.12 Vs Armen Petrosyan x1.73
Curtis Blaydes x1.30 Vs Rizvan Kuniev x3.60
Justin Gaethje x2.05 Vs Rafael Fiziev x1.76
Amanda Lemos x2.00 Vs Jasmin Lucindo x1.81
Jaim Turner x1.90 Vs Ignacio Bahamondes x1.90
Alex Pereira x1.84 Vs Magomed Ankalaev x1.96

[electronicash]

although 36 isn't so old, he is fighting a younger one. looks fair for both to fight again and its possible that Fiziev will win.
Alex Pereira  is much older than them but still kicking asses. there is a chance though that he might not win vs  Ankalaev we can see it on the odds. UFC 313 has great fights in there.

Curtis Blaydes x1.30 Vs Rizvan Kuniev x3.60

this one looks like an easy fight for Blaydes.

[pawel7777]

To my surprise, Ankalaev announced in an interview that he will not strictly obey the ramadan rules and will make the exception for the UFC 313:
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2025/03/ufc-313-magomed-ankalaev-ramadan-fasting-fight-week

If someone was going to bet on Pereira on the assumption that Ankalaev would be weakened and disadvantaged by fasting, it's time to reconsider.
I still think Alex should be a favourite as Ankalaev wrestling might be vastly overrated.

[electronicash]

To my surprise, Ankalaev announced in an interview that he will not strictly obey the ramadan rules and will make the exception for the UFC 313:
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2025/03/ufc-313-magomed-ankalaev-ramadan-fasting-fight-week

If someone was going to bet on Pereira on the assumption that Ankalaev would be weakened and disadvantaged by fasting, it's time to reconsider.
I still think Alex should be a favourite as Ankalaev wrestling might be vastly overrated.

i think the Muslim community will reconsider his situation. it can't be good as an excuse if he loses.

we all know pereiera is at his disadvantage if Ankalev will grapple him, pereira will be like fish out of the water mounted by Ankalev. in his first MMA fight, pereira looks like a newbie who doesn't know what to do and he will be in this situation again if he hasn't learn to protect himself in wrestling.

[pawel7777]

Gentlemen, all your financial problems are about to be solved.
Due to some glitch in the matrix, Google has accidently leaked the results of the UFC 313:


credit to: https://x.com/GeneralCovMMA/status/1897124319026884819

With that parlay you could turn $1 to over $1 million.
Seems legit. Especially Alex Pereira winning by submission in round 2.

[electronicash]

if this glitch actually happens this sunday, i would really think someone up there had programmed all the things that is happening in our lives including the things i have been writing in this forum. and google found that guy up there 

pereira had never submitted anyone. it would be the first. even when ankalaev they say is a great wrestler, he doesn't' have a good number of submission wins. but knowing he is a dagestan i think is enough of an information to the people.