The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic

[pawel7777]

Jiri calls for 3rd match to Pereira after his last fight where he won.  now that Pereira isn't the champ i think Dana will allow it unless he prefers to Jiri to fight Ankalaev

That's an odd call. I think he Jiri would have a better chance of getting a fight against Ankalaev, unless he doesn't want to fight him and prefer Alex, which could be more profitable despite no belt being on the line.

In other news, there are some mentions between the UFC and the ESPN. The situation is explained here in a bit more detail:
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/ufc/ufc-espn-netflix-ppv-tko-b2716497.html
Essentially it's not just the UFC being displeased with the ESPN, but the ESPN is also not happy with the PPV results. If both parties are not happy with what they're getting, I think it's more likely than not that they will part ways.
But if the UFC moves to Netflix, they'll likely have to change their business model and ditch PPV, as I can't imagine Netflix would implement that just for them.

[electronicash]

Jiri calls for 3rd match to Pereira after his last fight where he won.  now that Pereira isn't the champ i think Dana will allow it unless he prefers to Jiri to fight Ankalaev

That's an odd call. I think he Jiri would have a better chance of getting a fight against Ankalaev, unless he doesn't want to fight him and prefer Alex, which could be more profitable despite no belt being on the line.

In other news, there are some mentions between the UFC and the ESPN. The situation is explained here in a bit more detail:
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/ufc/ufc-espn-netflix-ppv-tko-b2716497.html
Essentially it's not just the UFC being displeased with the ESPN, but the ESPN is also not happy with the PPV results. If both parties are not happy with what they're getting, I think it's more likely than not that they will part ways.
But if the UFC moves to Netflix, they'll likely have to change their business model and ditch PPV, as I can't imagine Netflix would implement that just for them.

people today need fights that can make them excited. siince they see already that Jiri has no match to Alex twice, its enough. it doesn't make people feel the thrill anymore.

Alex vs Ankalaev probably didn't see as well thats why ppv got mad. if Dana just listen t the request about Jones vs Aspinall, it might save the partnership. but don't you think netflix will do better for UFC?  showing their mini series in UFC will make it bigger. plus the fights every weekends.

[pawel7777]

(...) if Dana just listen t the request about Jones vs Aspinall, it might save the partnership.(...)

I think they're looking to make it happen this summer. I think that's what Dana White said not too long ago.

All fights + odds for the main card:

Wood, Nathaniel x2.25 Vs Chamere, Morgan x1.64
Vucenic, Jordan x1.23 Vs Duncan, Christopher x4.20
McCann, Molly x2.62 Vs Thainara, Alexia x1.48
Nelson, Gunnar x1.75 Vs Holland, Kevin x2.08
Blachowicz, Jan x3.33 Vs Ulberg, Carlos x1.33
Edwards, Leon x2.33 Vs Brady, Sean x1.61

Talking about good odds. Any thoughts on x2.33 for Edwards? I was kind of surprised to see him as an underdog. He's fighting at home and is rightfully ranked higher than Brady. Both only lost to Belal in their most recent fight history, Edwards by decision, Brady by KO (in 2022).

[electronicash]

Hollands fight was the most entertaining among them. even down the ground, he still throw hammer fist upwards.

the rest of the fights are stressful to watch especially Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady.  Brady dominates the fight but wasn't making a bog shot that rocks Leon. but i understand he isn't a KO puncher. Leon doesn't look like in the mood to fight 

[pawel7777]

Hollands fight was the most entertaining among them. even down the ground, he still throw hammer fist upwards.

Yup, Holland was a slight underdog but he did his homework and showed up prepared. He's always an entertaining guy to watch.

The UFC has updated their ranking. In the light heavyweight division, Carlos Ulberg took over Blachowicz's 3rd spot and Jan dropped to 5th. I think the Ankalaev-Pereira rematch is most likely to happen. if Alex wins, maybe they would give him Ulberg next, as he looks like a comfy opponent for Alex. If Ankalaev defends his belt, I think Prochazka would get another shot, but maybe the UFC will match Jiri Vs Ulberg for the top contender spot. That would also be a good fight.

In the welterweight, Sean Brady is now a number one contender, which is not something I agree with, I think that spot belongs to Shavkat.

For some reason, they moved Dustin Poirier down by one place and moved Max Holloway up in the lightweight. I don't quite understand why.

https://www.ufc.com/rankings

[electronicash]

Shavkat will have his time being a champ. maybe UFC couldn't bear someone up there on top  who will stay on top for a long time because they are young like Shavkat.

Alex was a good example for it. they managed to make him a champion for a while and avoid to match him against a fighter who can grapple him to the ground. but still Dana wants Alex to be the champ because people loves seeing a KO puncher.

Jiri I think will defeat Ankalaev if they ever fight. it will short lived Ankalaev champ status.

[pawel7777]

Jiri I think will defeat Ankalaev if they ever fight. it will short lived Ankalaev champ status.

I think so too. Ankalaev would most likely be a favourite against Jiri, but my money would go on Jiri. I think Ankalaev's grappling game is probably much overrated and Prochazka did pretty well against Teixeira who had a solid ground game (a former member of the Brazilian National Wrestling Team).

But I think Alex will get a remath. It's pretty evident that he's aiming to have at least 3 fights a year to milk his popularity while he can. It seems like all 3 parties (Pereira, Ankalaev and the UFC) want the rematch to happen.

[electronicash]

Jiri I think will defeat Ankalaev if they ever fight. it will short lived Ankalaev champ status.

I think so too. Ankalaev would most likely be a favourite against Jiri, but my money would go on Jiri. I think Ankalaev's grappling game is probably much overrated and Prochazka did pretty well against Teixeira who had a solid ground game (a former member of the Brazilian National Wrestling Team).

But I think Alex will get a remath. It's pretty evident that he's aiming to have at least 3 fights a year to milk his popularity while he can. It seems like all 3 parties (Pereira, Ankalaev and the UFC) want the rematch to happen.

if they plan a trilogy therefore in the 2nd fight it will Alex who will win for it to have another match. that's a nice tip to bet.

on the UFC FN Moreno vs. Erceg this weekend, i think Moreno will win this. if he had survived Royval in a split decision, he may also be harder compare to Erceg. i'd like to parlay but the rest of the matches are very uncertain except Raul Rosas which seem to be a giveaway win for this kid.

[pawel7777]

Odds for tomorrow night's main card:

Ronaldo Rodriguez, Luis x1.64 Vs Borjas, Kevin x2.25
Martinez, David x1.22 Vs Oliveira, Salimon x4.25
Rosas Jr, Raul x1.20 Vs Morales, Vince x4.50
Gastelum, Kelvin x3.40 Vs Pyfer, Joe x1.32
Torres, Manuel x1.96 Vs Dober, Drew x1.84
Moreno, Brandon x1.38 Vs Erceg, Steve x3.00

I think Steve Erceg can make a surprise and win against Moreno. Erceg is coming off two consecutive losses (to Pantoja and Kara-France) but, before that, he was looking really good with 11 straight wins and a good finish ratio.

Torres Vs Dober could be a good one. I don't know much about Torres, but Dober has a heart and always puts up a good show even if he ends up losing. He's a little bit like lower-ranked Michael Chandler.

[electronicash]

Moreno kicked Kai Kara's ass while Kai KO'd Erceg. it couldn't be a the basis of this bet but seem like Kai is the most experience between the 3. Monero though have been a flyweight champion and defended the title several times, this guy have been pressured for a long time and got used to it with Figueiredo.

there as a video about Erceg being a good boxer actually.  if he could just be that technical all the time, he may possibly win. Figue is Moreno's rival for awhile.  Erceg has to mimic Figue

[pawel7777]

Yup, Erceg gave a decent fight and had his moments, but Moreno was simply better in all aspects. Who knows, he might get another shot at the belt against Pantoja. He lost to him by a split decision back in July 2023, so rematch is more than justified.

Full set of the main card results:
Flyweight   Brandon Moreno   def.   Steve Erceg   Decision (unanimous)
Lightweight   Manuel Torres   def.   Drew Dober   TKO (punches)
Flyweight   Édgar Cháirez   def.   C.J. Vergara   Submission (face crank)
Bantamweight   Raul Rosas Jr.   def.   Vince Morales   Decision (unanimous)
Bantamweight   David Martínez   def.   Saimon Oliveira   TKO (knee and punches)
Catchweight (127 lb)   Kevin Borjas   def.   Ronaldo Rodríguez   Decision (unanimous)

[electronicash]

Taira vs Moreno might have their fight first and whoever wins will get the 2nd shot. this is probably where Moreno will get another loss. i live seeing Taira fight. or it could be enough that Moreno can go ahead and fight Pantoja. its up to them.

the UFC 314 is an action pack. so much to watch out even if Volkanovski is already old, he seem capable till. Lopes however is one of the fighters that Dana s building up. Volkanovski has to save his dying career now, he has to win this. the good point is that this is not a short notice for Volknanovski.

[pawel7777]

Merab Dvalishvili Vs Sean O'Malley 2 has been confirmed for the UFC 316 on 7th June.

I don't know what changes will Sean make to his gameplan, but I don't expect the outcome will be much different than the last time. He will be looking for a KO, but Merab has never been KO'd in his professional career.

It will be a fun one to watch.

[electronicash]

Merab Dvalishvili Vs Sean O'Malley 2 has been confirmed for the UFC 316 on 7th June.

I don't know what changes will Sean make to his gameplan, but I don't expect the outcome will be much different than the last time. He will be looking for a KO, but Merab has never been KO'd in his professional career.

It will be a fun one to watch.

they scheduled this too far ahead,  they really are conditioning Sean to win though. according to some articles Sean's surgery was successful and so he may be in his best when he fight again.

Omar would have been the biggest contender be Merab also beat him. it would have been fun to see Sean vs Omar also but they chose to seen Sean get his 2nd shot immediately. Omar would get his rematch too if the result is still the same in this Sean vs Merab rematch.

[pawel7777]

they scheduled this too far ahead,  they really are conditioning Sean to win though. according to some articles Sean's surgery was successful and so he may be in his best when he fight again.

I think the timing is what you'd expect. It's scheduled for 7th June, so only 2 months from now. Merab fought Umar less than 3 months ago, so it will be less than 5 months between those 2 fights. And O'Malley needed (or still needs) some time to recover from the surgery and to reinvent himself.
Odds are clearly in favor of Merab though: x1.33 Vs x3.33 for Sean.