Impact of the upcoming BTC ETF on the BTC price: A contrarian view

[Peter90]

There is a lot of talk about the upcoming launch of Blackrock's new BTC ETF. I'm not saying the hype is not justified - actually I share it - but today I met this article with a contrarian view based on a similar event of the past.

It's about the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), launched on 19 October 2021. Although BITO invests in bitcoin futures contracts and not directly in bitcoin, but the hype in the crypto community between now and then seems to be similar.

So what happened back then? Apparently BTC prices peaked at $70,000 and crashed all the way to $33,000 by January of 2022.



The author - whom I don't know - writes:

"I discussed the likely ongoing price spike higher in BTC prices that would follow the BITO launch and the very high likelihood that the bankers would then execute a carpet pull from November 2021 to January 2022, after luring the dumb money into the BTC market.
...
In fact, just observe the various very optimistic BTC price predictions for 2024 that have already been inspired by the expected spot BTC ETF launch and the BTC halving event below:

2024 BTC Price Predictions
Youwei Yang, Bit Mining, Chief Economist: $75,000
James Butterfill, CoinShares, Head of Research: $80,000
Antoni Trenchev, Nexo, co-Founder: $100,000
Seth Ginns, CoinFund, Managing Partner: $250,000 to $500,000

What do I expect after the spot BTC ETF launch? ...
For now, I’m not observing any banker positioning in the BTC markets that support any of the above ‘pundit” predictions, meaning that the above provided BTC price predictions are all about as solid as pulling a price out of a hat, and nothing more. It doesn’t mean that none of the above predictions can come true later this year, but it 100% means all of them have no substantive backing at the current time and are nothing more than pure guesses.

In fact, as of today, I haven’t encountered anything that would suggest BTC prices can move higher than the $50,000 to $55,000 range in January, even were the launch of a spot BTC ETF to bump BTC prices higher. ...
However, I would not expect any different outcome and trajectory than the one I predicted in the above podcast on the release date of the BTC BITO last 19 October 2021 - a temporary bump higher in prices of a magnitude impossible to predict at the current time, followed by a potentially really big crash.

Though I haven’t spotted any signs as of yet that a big crash is coming after the release of the spot BTC ETF, this is the typical banker M.O.* after releasing a BTC derivative product."


Must Listen for BTC Investors: This is What Will Happen with BTC Prices Upon the Launch of the First Spot BTC ETF



* M.O. = modus operandi.
I had to look up myself for the meaning of that 

[God Of Thunder]

Di you notice today's movement? Wasn't it scary? The whole day everything was as usual. But everything changed in an hour once a few websites started to release news like the SEC was going to reject all the ETF proposals. Moreover, the miners were moving their coins to exchanges. After all this news, the market started to go down and Bitcoin price touched the 40K price range from 45.5K for the whole day.

Did SEC rejected the ETF proposals? The answer is not yet. But why do we see such movement even though ETF wasn't rejected? I am started to feeling like we may see further dump very soon.

[Cheema02]

Di you notice today's movement? Wasn't it scary? The whole day everything was as usual. But everything changed in an hour once a few websites started to release news like the SEC was going to reject all the ETF proposals. Moreover, the miners were moving their coins to exchanges. After all this news, the market started to go down and Bitcoin price touched the 40K price range from 45.5K for the whole day.

Did SEC rejected the ETF proposals? The answer is not yet. But why do we see such movement even though ETF wasn't rejected? I am started to feeling like we may see further dump very soon.

Right this move of Bitcoin is very scary in a few time Bitcoin dumped to 40k but after that Bitcoin recover and now at 43k plus. I think it will be fake dump or some manipulation to take down market. But Bitcoin will more dump in futhers days beacuse there is now volume in 37k to 38k support level or Bitcoin will surely test it. I also think SEC will not approve ETF  in January.

[Peter90]

Di you notice today's movement? Wasn't it scary? The whole day everything was as usual. But everything changed in an hour once a few websites started to release news like the SEC was going to reject all the ETF proposals. Moreover, the miners were moving their coins to exchanges. After all this news, the market started to go down and Bitcoin price touched the 40K price range from 45.5K for the whole day.

Did SEC rejected the ETF proposals? The answer is not yet. But why do we see such movement even though ETF wasn't rejected? I am started to feeling like we may see further dump very soon.

Right this move of Bitcoin is very scary in a few time Bitcoin dumped to 40k but after that Bitcoin recover and now at 43k plus. I think it will be fake dump or some manipulation to take down market. But Bitcoin will more dump in futhers days beacuse there is now volume in 37k to 38k support level or Bitcoin will surely test it. I also think SEC will not approve ETF  in January.

Talking about rejecting the new ETF, one theory: SEC rejecting the Blackrock's ETF for political reasons


"He noted that the “five-person voting Commissioners leadership critical for the ETF approval of the SEC is dominated by Democrats,” and highlighted that “SEC Chair Gensler is not embracing crypto in the US, and it might even be a very long shot to expect that he would vote to approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs.”

“An ETF would certainly enable crypto overall to take off, and based on Gensler’s comments in December 2023, he still sees this industry in need of more stringent compliance,” Thielen said. “From a political perspective, there is no reason to approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF that would legitimize Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.”



... but the rejection would be temporary - after all, the issuer of the new ETF is Blackrock, one of the entities who own the US gov


“While we have seen frequent meetings between the ETF applicants and staff from the SEC, which resulted in the applicants refiling their applications, we believe all applications fall short of a critical requirement that must be met before the SEC approves,” Thielen said. “This might be fulfilled by Q2 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”

"... if the applications are not approved in the next two weeks, the more likely reason is because the SEC needs more time. “We haven’t gone further than 90% because of the possibility [...] I don't think that we're going to see a full-out denial,” he said.


www.kitco.com

[Gladitorcomeback]

Di you notice today's movement? Wasn't it scary? The whole day everything was as usual. But everything changed in an hour once a few websites started to release news like the SEC was going to reject all the ETF proposals. Moreover, the miners were moving their coins to exchanges. After all this news, the market started to go down and Bitcoin price touched the 40K price range from 45.5K for the whole day.

Did SEC rejected the ETF proposals? The answer is not yet. But why do we see such movement even though ETF wasn't rejected? I am started to feeling like we may see further dump very soon.

Exactly I am also thinking also. The current spikes in btc price due to short time holders who just purchased btc with thinking that ETF will be approved and they will get increase their portfolio more than 50% in one month. Any bad news of ETF now will result in panic sell from weak hand which is not good for short term holders.

The news comes out maybe fud created to liquidate future traders as this was best time to make money. SEC will not approve applications and we might experience further delay. Any delay or reject confirmed news would dump btc to 35k.

[God Of Thunder]

The news comes out maybe fud created to liquidate future traders as this was best time to make money. SEC will not approve applications and we might experience further delay. Any delay or reject confirmed news would dump btc to 35k.

We don't know what is going to happen. Everything we see on the internet is just speculation. Since you are from Pakistan, You may know Muqadas who is the owner of a YouTube channel named Ilme Aalim. I used to follow him for a while because he shares some crypto news. He said that a reporter from Cointelegraph or maybe another media said ETF would be approved today which did not happen. Another journalist from Bloomberg said ETF will be approved on 10th January. Let's see what happens. But as I said, all we are seeing at this moment is just speculation.

Even if ETF gets approved, BTC won't pass the 54K range for now. The market will go down in march because of the USA bank failure. The USA will re-arrange the interest rate and then we may see recovery. Let's see what happens.

[MrSpasybo]

Even if ETF gets approved, BTC won't pass the 54K range for now. The market will go down in march because of the USA bank failure. The USA will re-arrange the interest rate and then we may see recovery. Let's see what happens.

Anything can happen, we just know that the launch of BTC Spot ETF is a big event and will have a positive impact on BTC and crypto market in long term. In short term, a few events are likely to happen:
+ BTC price increased sharply because investors were optimistic about big new money flowing into crypto from traditional market.
+ BTC price is flat because everything happened as expected.
+ BTC price decreased because of "sell the news" and many investors want to take profits.

Anyway, I am very optimistic about BTC's price increase and setting a new ATH in 2024. The volatility in the weeks following launch of BTC Spot ETF is not that important: if price goes up then good, if price goes down then that's also good because I will be able to DCA more BTC 💪💪💪

[God Of Thunder]

Anyway, I am very optimistic about BTC's price increase and setting a new ATH in 2024. The volatility in the weeks following launch of BTC Spot ETF is not that important: if price goes up then good, if price goes down then that's also good because I will be able to DCA more BTC 💪💪💪

Not only you but almost everyone expecting a new ATH this year. There are several reasons behind it. ETH approval is one of the reasons. Another major reason is the upcoming BTC halving. This is the most speculated halving so far. I guess we all agree on that. Yes, indeed, holders always acquire more BTC when they see the dip. But, sometimes news selling affects too much. Remember how the FTX drama changed the market movement? I hope we won't see such movement before the halving. I know most of the people will try to cash out their profit in the bull run, but I am positive with that.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Am still wondering what may turns to be the outcome of these market price speculations if what we least expect eventually happened that the bitcoin ETF was not approved and the market remains ever volatile as it has always been, yet we still have the market rising and we are very much sure of the fact that we are out of the dip for now till after a new all time high, the problem is that there's much expectations on the market to rise and that this has to begin with the ETF approval which is almost at a probability level now, but going by halving, we can still have the rest assurance for a rise in market between now till then.

[God Of Thunder]

Am still wondering what may turns to be the outcome of these market price speculations if what we least expect eventually happened that the bitcoin ETF was not approved and the market remains ever volatile as it has always been, yet we still have the market rising and we are very much sure of the fact that we are out of the dip for now till after a new all time high, the problem is that there's much expectations on the market to rise and that this has to begin with the ETF approval which is almost at a probability level now, but going by halving, we can still have the rest assurance for a rise in market between now till then.

ETF approval will surge the Bitcoin price. But, I am not expecting too much for now. This is not the first time ETFs have been proposed. SEC has decided on the ETF proposal before and we should not be surprised if they decline it again. We should be ready for the result. No matter if it's positive or negative. But be ready for a massive correction if they reject the ETF proposal.

After the halving, Bitcoin supply will start to decrease and will the market start growing slowly. We should not expect anything over night. Usually people take bad news too seriously and positive news affect the market slowly.

[Stompix]

Going to reply you here rather than in the other topic about the ETF to keep discussions separated.

First, I'm going to say it, I don't like the predictions of guys (like this Kim) that draw conclusions on events following the same route because of in this case manipulation, but despite having the two events in this case BITO in the first and the others 11 in the second he published his theory way into it, why not talk about this before the market started already to react, the price of the approval was already in by January, it started with the Grayscale won case. So he had months to prepare it, but he only published it when the bases have already been set in stone, half of his prediction is not a prediction at all since the build up is already here, it's commenting on already done thigs!

The second one, it's about BITO. And BITO was ...meh!  I mean like total meh...nobody really cared about it, Bukele posting some meme went viral more than all the discussions about it,  which brings us to a different thing. Forget BITO, there was first CME!
And if you look at the timeline, BITO was more of a bump in a correction after the mother of all pumps.  Not even factoring Luna as the downside crash afterwards.

So to arrange the thoughts on this, I truly believe the ETF thing was already priced in, we had zero reasons to go up from where we were in October, this was the result on the built up hope of finally getting it done, the drop is actually the lack of enthusiasm and the realization of one small thing, having product doesn't mean people will buy it, which brings me to the tons of so called "good news" on adoption where we have published numbers of millions laying already with crypto, percentages way up in the double digits in some countries for owner of crypt currencies ad so on. So my take is more than, yeah you offer an investment mechanism but the ones looking to invest were already here, and I have the same feeling for the halving, like everyone knows about it, why would somebody buy ...after? What's the point?
 

"I discussed the likely ongoing price spike higher in BTC prices that would follow the BITO launch and the very high likelihood that the bankers would then execute a carpet pull from November 2021 to January 2022, after luring the dumb money into the BTC market.

Well, I might be a contrarian but not a conspiracy theorist on this level.
Not to mention that bankers don't just go in meeting like in cartoons in some underground bunker and decide there we need to hide these few billions in Bitcoin and then we need to dump it, it would also mean that bankers have bought Bitcoin in the first place, since in order to rug pull us at 48k they would have had to bring the price up here, buys from guys at 45k and then dumping it to 30k allowing the same people who have sold their coin to make a profit and not make one on their own....not really carpet pull material? Isn't?

I will go with the already price in theory, and I will go with the same theory for the halving, I doubt any of those events despite being somewhat positive will have a rapid influence on the market, but it's far likely the delusion of not getting 3x-5x in a day like some thought will play a bigger role!

“This might be fulfilled by Q2 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”
www.kitco.com

Did this guy had a comeback for this one? 

[gunhell16]

Well, honestly, in my view of what is happening now in the market, it seems that we will not feel a strong impact as a result of the sec approval on the Bitcoin spot, etc. These past few days, Bitcoin has dropped to over 42k each. It seems to me that the companies approved by the SEC are making me feel that the price of Bitcoin will not rise.

Then what also happens is that the buy and sell that they do is a 1:1 ratio; is it person to person or company to company? They buy Bitcoin like that, so it seems that there is no impact when they buy and sell Bitcoin to others. market. So it seems that what they want to make the crypto community feel is that the market value will fall even more, and then they will come in and buy a large allocation of Bitcoin. So for bitcoin, believers should just stay on hold and don't sell.

[Gurujebs]

Well, honestly, in my view of what is happening now in the market, it seems that we will not feel a strong impact as a result of the sec approval on the Bitcoin spot, etc. These past few days, Bitcoin has dropped to over 42k each. It seems to me that the companies approved by the SEC are making me feel that the price of Bitcoin will not rise.

Bitcoin don't do much when people are expecting something to happen especially that particular day, the day of bitcoin halving for instance, Bitcoin price don't make moves on that day and it sometimes dump on the day of halving which is why they say "buy the dip and sell the news". Sec spoil the show though, we would have had this opportunity to reach the previous all time high but they played everyone and prevented the market from running and that's why they pull that "X" stunt on everyone.

Then what also happens is that the buy and sell that they do is a 1:1 ratio; is it person to person or company to company? They buy Bitcoin like that, so it seems that there is no impact when they buy and sell Bitcoin to others. market. So it seems that what they want to make the crypto community feel is that the market value will fall even more, and then they will come in and buy a large allocation of Bitcoin. So for bitcoin, believers should just stay on hold and don't sell.

The same SEC that approves Bitcoin will come for it later, not a week before Gary Gensler came to CNBC to come and address the public about why he approved the ETF and went ahead to shade Bitcoin for nothing, said bad stuffs about bitcoin after he endorse ETF Bitcoin because he was among the people that sold but I'm happy that the face is over and it's now moving without any their manipulation.

[Peter90]

“This might be fulfilled by Q2 2024, but we expect the SEC to reject all proposals in January.”
www.kitco.com

Did this guy had a comeback for this one? 

 

No, since that day they can't find him 
He gone incognito 

[Peter90]

It's about the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), launched on 19 October 2021.
So what happened back then? Apparently BTC prices peaked at $70,000 and crashed all the way to $33,000 by January of 2022.


"I discussed the likely ongoing price spike higher in BTC prices that would follow the BITO launch and the very high likelihood that the bankers would then execute a carpet pull from November 2021 to January 2022, after luring the dumb money into the BTC market.

In fact, as of today, I haven’t encountered anything that would suggest BTC prices can move higher than the $50,000 to $55,000 range in January, even were the launch of a spot BTC ETF to bump BTC prices higher.

However, I would not expect any different outcome and trajectory than the one I predicted in the above podcast on the release date of the BTC BITO last 19 October 2021 - a temporary bump higher in prices of a magnitude impossible to predict at the current time, followed by a potentially really big crash.

Though I haven’t spotted any signs as of yet that a big crash is coming after the release of the spot BTC ETF, this is the typical banker modus operandi after releasing a BTC derivative product."

BTC down from 43k - the day of ETFs approval - to 36k today.
- 20%

Mr. John Kim was right.
He was right in 2021 and was right this time.

The article now is locked under subscription... it seems it got some attention!
Good for him. The man deserves it.