BTC Spot ETF is the focus of crypto community attention, especially its impact on BTC and Altcoins price. I think whether it is pumb or dump, the impact is only in the short term, in the long term Bitcoin Spot ETF will be a big driving force for growth of the entire crypto market in next 2024 cycle.
Therefore, let's try to predict BTC price at halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024
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I will simple linear regression method with data of BTC Close price in the month of Halving in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
BTC Close price is predicted in May 2024 to be
$77.5K, which means that BTC will create a new peak immediately after the BTC Spot ETF is approved, which is really bullish.
If use some suggestions from analyzing the entire BTC price history, results seem more realistic:
Min = $28K, Medium = $40K, Max = $57.5K. $40K is located at Fibo 0.618, quite similar to BTC Close price at previous Halvings. I think this prediction is more reasonable and reliable, although it is not too Bullish.
I look forward to receiving your comments on the two cases I have in mind, and also want to know your own views and opinions on BTC price at upcoming Halving.
[1]
Nicehash: Bitcoin halving countdown