BTC Spot ETF is market poison?

[MrSpasybo]

Perhaps at this time the entire crypto market is focusing on tracking updates about BTC Spot ETF and predicting its impact on crypto market in the short/medium/long terms. I refer to 2 opinions^[1,2] on Coindesk and share my own views on the impact of BTC Spot ETF.

1. In the short term (weeks or months): prices can be pumped because of FOMO or dumped because of “sell-the-news”.

2. In the medium term (several years):

• BTC Spot ETF allows more US investors to access BTC without knowledge of blockchain and crypto. Millions or tens of millions of American investors in crypto is a huge achievement that Spot ETF can reach in just a short time, which BTC has not been able to do in more than a decade.
• BTC officially joins the traditional financial market in US, becoming an asset for people to diversify their investment portfolios.
• Increase the legality of BTC globally, increasing the possibility of approval in many countries.
• Most importantly: attracting large cash flows, creating momentum to help BTC prices and the entire crypto market have impressive growth in the 2024 cycle and many future cycles. I think profit is the reason many investors want to look for this market^[1].

3. In the long term from a pessimistic perspective, BTC Spot ETF could be a poison pill for BTC and crypto. Stay calm and let's look at it together.

• Losing the historical mission of Bitcoin: In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin as a method for people to have the right to self-custody of money, not dependent on third parties, escaping the traditional financial model that has a lot of problems.
  This is only possible when each person stores BTC in their personal account and trades P2P. When there is a Spot ETF, investors only buy fund certificates and pay management fees for large funds like BlackRock and Fidelity, investors do not actually hold BTC or trade P2P. They put $ into funds and then sell it out for $. They have no BTC in their personal accounts. Everything will be simpler but it also means depending on intermediaries. I don't dare to think about the consequences if US government confiscates or freezes these ETFs.
• Dependent and manipulated by large funds: we are no longer naive enough to believe that the financial market is free and fair for everyone. Manipulation is everywhere, even in crypto market. As BTC Spot ETF is more accessible and has high trading volume, the intensity of manipulation is also greater and may no longer be dependent on the halving. Instability can be intentionally caused which is more difficult to track because without on-chain data, investors will face difficulty in making investment decisions while losing a lot of valuable information for reference. Investors also have to pay to give up their own rights and be dependent on others, which is absurd!
• We sell our own future cheap: if everything is too easy to buy BTC Spot ETF, the need to learn and know how to use Bitcoin network will decrease, gradually BTC only exists in the accounts of big funds. When people forget and sell off the future of financial freedom for opportunities and small immediate profits, the revolution initiated by Satoshi will fail.
  With just a few tens of billions of dollars, the giants of the traditional financial market led by the banking system were able to destroy Bitcoin and our hope to own assets. This may be the reason why for nearly 1 year, large funds have been enthusiastically doing everything to get BTC Spot ETF approved: of course they did not become enlightened about BTC overnight, they want BTC and crypto market completely in their hands^[2].

Looking back at Gold Spot ETF in 2004, following its launch, gold prices increased significantly through 2011, but stagnated over the next decade. Young people in US are now very unfamiliar with buying gold for their own storage, they choose to invest in gold ETFs for convenience, and they complain about inflation and devaluation of $. This truth is completely different from the situation in Vietnam: Vietnamese investors do not have the concept of Gold Spot ETF, we buy and sell gold by grams/pieces/jewelry at precious metal stores ourselves, we self-store and lend gold to each other when necessary.

I wonder if in the future, there will be a time when investors will pay attention to these problems and realize our foolishness. Then, a huge upheaval will come: is it the time for our surrender or the tipping point of a revolution in the financial markets?

What is your view on the implications of BTC Spot ETF many years from now? Do you think ETFs are threatening the true value of BTC? Are you only interested in the profits that BTC Spot ETF will bring in the short term? Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto will support BTC Spot ETF?
[1] Bitcoin ETFs: The Bull Case
[2] Bitcoin ETFs: The Bear Case

[Nwada001]

What is your view on the implications of BTC Spot ETF many years from now?

Bitcoin ETFs have been the talk of town since their application submission up until the date that they were approved, and one of the reasons I joined many who believe in the positivity that will come with their approval is that their approval is going to stand as a great sign and a new beginning for bitcoin legality. Many people believed and saw bitcoin as an illegal asset, and as such, they don't want to get their hands involved in it.
 
Like you have already said above, this approval will bring a great opportunity to bitcoin as it will now have a larger market, more investors will come in, and all of that, and this is going to mark a significant beginning for other institutional investors to buy the idea of owning this as part of their stock.

Do you think ETFs are threatening the true value of BTC?

When you talk about the true value of bitcoin, what area are you referring to? In the aspect of decentralisation, oh yes, when it comes to transparency, there will be some level of that up to an extent. In the aspect of self-custody, I guess the owner won't entirely be in control as they don't hold the real bitcoin, but rather it's just backed up somewhere.

Are you only interested in the profits that BTC Spot ETF will bring in the short term?

 
Everyone will like to take a profit when they present themselves, but then again, how long will this profit last? The profit aside, I'm also concerned about market manipulation. The bitcoin ETF will make it easier for whales to dump their wallets at a time and also refill, which could have both a negative and positive impact on the bitcoin price.

Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto will support BTC Spot ETF?[/b][/color]

I guess for bitcoin to be generally accepted, especially in a large economy like that of bitcoin, the only aspect I believe might be against his vision is that the bitcoin ETF won't give users total control of what they own.

[examplens]

Unfortunately, this pessimistic perspective is much more likely to me. This completely violates one of the basic values of the Bitcoin ecosystem, that we are the owners of our portfolio. Now we should turn to the dollar again.
The SEC has been clearing space for this for a long time, punishing and expelling as many players as possible.

Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto will support BTC Spot ETF?

Did someone ask him?
If so, can he change anything?

[jonathancool220]

Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto will support BTC Spot ETF?

Did someone ask him?
If so, can he change anything?

Haha, this thread is all right, it made me laugh out loud. LOL
I'm not sure if Satoshi Nakamoto agrees because he wants Bitcoin to remain normal as usual, namely P2P between users.
This Bitcoin ETF has actually become a trending topic for discussion, if only what is discussed about the good is good but the discussion about the bad I don't respect.
But between every discussion of Bitcoin being accepted by the ETF, there are definitely pluses and minuses for the price of Bitcoin in the market, as Bitcoin traders and altcoins have been waiting for this moment to seek profits from the good news of the Bitcoin ETF.

[Mayajal]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Top 5 spot #Bitcoin    trading volumes today:

Grayscale: $2.3 billion
BlackRock: $1 billion
Fidelity: $700 million
ARK 21Shares: $288 million
Bitwise: $125 million

The institutions are here 🚀
[urlhttps://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1745573835070427520?t=Ico5U0v5VfVAPtVDN6fLig&s=19]Details[/url]

[Peter90]

• Losing the historical mission of Bitcoin: In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin as a method for people to have the right to self-custody of money, not dependent on third parties, escaping the traditional financial model that has a lot of problems.
  This is only possible when each person stores BTC in their personal account and trades P2P.

Thumb up!
How refreshing to meet someone who reminds the crypto community of what is the point of Bitcoin!
Thank you Spasybo!


The point of Bitcoin is to be a currency - that's why they call them cryptocurrencies.
A currency is a means of payment. With a currency you can buy bananas and take a taxi.

With shares of an ETF, you can't.
They are not currency. You need to convert them into fiat and with that fiat currency you can pay.
With ETF shares you are still dependent on fiat currency.
ETF shares are no alternative to fiat currency.

What is the problem with fiat currency?
Spasybo explained it very well: with fiat currency you are dependent on the banking system.

First on the central bank. They decide how much fiat currency to put into circulation. They influence the purchasing power - the value - of your money!
Second on your bank. What you deposit at the bank, it become theirs. Bank employees know everything about your life, they know how much do you have, how much you spend, where you transfer to and where you get your money from.

Bitcoin had to be the solution to this, instead it has reduced itself to a game to make money.
BTC ETFs won't help in nothing the adoption of Bitcoin as a currency.


Spasybo, who knew you are a bitcoin maximalist 

[Zed0X]

I remember back in 2017 or 2018 when almost everyone is talking about institutional money flowing into crypto but now that it's actually happening, we're having reservations. To be fair, the concerns are valid but this is what most traders want. I was also thinking that it will change the cycle that we know of but what else can we do? We can only sit back.

Now that Bitcoin ETF is already here, I'm hoping that none of these wealthy groups would collude and control the major miners.

[MrSpasybo]

this approval will bring a great opportunity to bitcoin as it will now have a larger market, more investors will come in, and all of that, and this is going to mark a significant beginning for other institutional investors to buy the idea of owning this as part of their stock.
In the aspect of self-custody, I guess the owner won't entirely be in control as they don't hold the real bitcoin, but rather it's just backed up somewhere.
The bitcoin ETF will make it easier for whales to dump their wallets at a time and also refill, which could have both a negative and positive impact on the bitcoin price.
I guess for bitcoin to be generally accepted, especially in a large economy like that of bitcoin, the only aspect I believe might be against his vision is that the bitcoin ETF won't give users total control of what they own.

I like practical thoughts like this, we have our own ideals when we come to crypto, but the market has its own rules, and especially when we can't do anything to fight the inevitable trend, which is being supported by major financial forces. At least, we still have the consolation of the positive effects of BTC Spot ETF on the overall market.

Unfortunately, this pessimistic perspective is much more likely to me. This completely violates one of the basic values of the Bitcoin ecosystem, that we are the owners of our portfolio. Now we should turn to the dollar again.
The SEC has been clearing space for this for a long time, punishing and expelling as many players as possible.

From the standpoint of respecting the integrity of Bitcoin's value, it is true that we should be cautious when assessing the impact of BTC Spot ETF. What we can do is hope that ETFs do not become an epidemic that takes over all blockchains in the crypto market. Bitcoin is the leader so it may have to be sacrificed to bring legitimacy to crypto.
P/s: I hope Satoshi is following the news and has an answer on Bitcoin network in the form of Inscription ^^

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Top 5 spot #Bitcoin    trading volumes today:
Grayscale: $2.3 billion
BlackRock: $1 billion
Fidelity: $700 million
ARK 21Shares: $288 million
Bitwise: $125 million

Wow, we have validated traditional investor demand for ETFs, which is bound to give crypto bullrun a boost.

BTC ETFs won't help in nothing the adoption of Bitcoin as a currency.
Spasybo, who knew you are a bitcoin maximalist 

Yeah, this is the problem we need to pay attention to. ETFs make BTC seem more powerful and legitimate, but it also pulls BTC away from its original destiny. I don't expect this to become so severe that BTC Spot ETF gets more attention than BTC itself.
I am not a Bitcoin maximalist, I support both Bitcoin and Altcoins. I always believe that opportunities in the crypto market are for all of potential candidates!

I remember back in 2017 or 2018 when almost everyone is talking about institutional money flowing into crypto but now that it's actually happening, we're having reservations. To be fair, the concerns are valid but this is what most traders want. I was also thinking that it will change the cycle that we know of but what else can we do? We can only sit back.

Now that Bitcoin ETF is already here, I'm hoping that none of these wealthy groups would collude and control the major miners.

BTC needs mass adoption, BTC needs more cash flow, but Spot ETF only provides the latter. When the majority of people are too optimistic, we should be a little more cautious because there may be something left, that's incorrect or potentially risky here.
Miners are big companies but also decentralized, so I don't worry too much about the transparency of Bitcoin network. The cost of attacking/manipulating Bitcoin network is huge and Spot ETF providers will have no incentive to do it.

[Power420]

Bitcoin price continues to see an upward trend, currently since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin has seen an upward movement. Bitcoin halving is in 2024 so Bitcoin price will definitely increase.  So now is the right time to invest in Bitcoin, now if you can invest in Bitcoin, the chances of getting benefits are definitely high. I am the only one who believes that investing in Bitcoin has a very low probability of loss. So all of you who are still without investment in Bitcoin must invest.

[Faisal2202]

I wonder if in the future, there will be a time when investors will pay attention to these problems and realize our foolishness. Then, a huge upheaval will come: is it the time for our surrender or the tipping point of a revolution in the financial markets?

I don't think in the future a time will come when people will start to use gold (physical) again instead of these Gold ETFs for convenience. Because it is a modern era and now we are into digitalization, and automation, we want everything to be self-managed, we don't want to spend hours, days on one thing, we want everything to be prepared by itself, like just a few years ago, people were holding their funds by themselves, but now after 2000s, people are using thrid person investors, or funds advisors, who are managing their funds and investing into different options. The only thing that has changed now is, back then these financial advisors do not consider BTC or crypto as an option to invest in.

But nowadays they prefer everyone to invest a small piece of their capital to invest in BTC.

What is your view on the implications of BTC Spot ETF many years from now? Do you think ETFs are threatening the true value of BTC? Are you only interested in the profits that BTC Spot ETF will bring in the short term? Do you think Satoshi Nakamoto will support BTC Spot ETF?

Yeah, ETFs are threatening the true value and potential they have, People will not be using the custodial or non-custodial wallets, they will not be aware of the hardware wallets, and cannot experience how it feels to be owners of what belongs to you. I hope you got my point here. I am only interested in ETFs just because it will drive money towards BTC but in the end, people (smart ones) will understand the BTC and they might come to use its features directly like wallets, blockchain, smarcontracts, etc. etc.

[Stompix]

Bitcoin price continues to see an upward trend, currently since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin has seen an upward movement. Bitcoin halving is in 2024 so Bitcoin price will definitely increase.

What charts are you watching, what's the name of that coin and in what reality do you reside?



I know that some asian countries like China or South Korea red is up but I've never yet seen a country where down is up! 

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Top 5 spot #Bitcoin    trading volumes today:
Grayscale: $2.3 billion
BlackRock: $1 billion
Fidelity: $700 million
ARK 21Shares: $288 million
Bitwise: $125 million

Wow, we have validated traditional investor demand for ETFs, which is bound to give crypto bullrun a boost.

Yeah, we're right now at a 6.02% boos for the day. Down!  as we dipped below the December 5th pump!
Just a few more of these boosts are we're heading back below 40 k or even worse.

Looking back at Gold Spot ETF in 2004, following its launch, gold prices increased significantly through 2011, but stagnated over the next decade. Young people in US are now very unfamiliar with buying gold for their own storage, they choose to invest in gold ETFs for convenience, and they complain about inflation and devaluation of $. This truth is completely different from the situation in Vietnam: Vietnamese investors do not have the concept of Gold Spot ETF, we buy and sell gold by grams/pieces/jewelry at precious metal stores ourselves, we self-store and lend gold to each other when necessary.

Hmm, let's check inflation in both:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2022&locations=VN-US&start=1995



Let's check the parity of the dong versus the usd
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=VND&view=10Y



Weird, seems like the ones complaining are doing far better than the ones buying gold! 

So, looking at the numbers if we want to believe some gold purchases or bitcoin purchases could actually influence the economy of a country we should all dump out cold storage and go full into ETF  But the reality is that both gold market and bitcoin markets are at this point irrelevant when we speak macros.
Apple sold iPhones and Macs worth half of the entire marketcap of BTC in one year!

[MrSpasybo]

So, looking at the numbers if we want to believe some gold purchases or bitcoin purchases could actually influence the economy of a country we should all dump out cold storage and go full into ETF  But the reality is that both gold market and bitcoin markets are at this point irrelevant when we speak macros.

I'm not talking about the impact of Gold Spot ETF and BTC Spot ETF on asset price fluctuations or the national economy, I want to mention the negative impacts that BTC Spot ETF can cause to BTC's original mission and our financial freedom as the big guys pool BTC for their ETFs. Perhaps in the long term we will have more information to more accurately assess this risk.

[Hamza2424]

You have made a good explanation here, I liked it and you are right, BTC Spot ETF and Future ETF both are poison for not only BTC market but for whole cryptocurrency market, the reason are same as you have mentioned, but for alt market, the reason is, BTC prices had direct and indirect impact on the price of alts. We see alts bleeding when the dominance of BTC increases and vice versa.

This whole ETF thing is not a good thing for the BTC itself, as it diverge people from using the BTC technology like Blockchain, wallets, exchange, dexs, etc. people using BTC ETF will not be aware of Blockchain technology and its benefits, and revolutions it can make. But I guess we don't need there time in BTC blockchain, we are getting what we need. And that is funds into BTC which is good for BTC dominance and for all investors.

[MrSpasybo]

You have made a good explanation here, I liked it and you are right, BTC Spot ETF and Future ETF both are poison for not only BTC market but for whole cryptocurrency market, the reason are same as you have mentioned, but for alt market, the reason is, BTC prices had direct and indirect impact on the price of alts. We see alts bleeding when the dominance of BTC increases and vice versa.

This whole ETF thing is not a good thing for the BTC itself, as it diverge people from using the BTC technology like Blockchain, wallets, exchange, dexs, etc. people using BTC ETF will not be aware of Blockchain technology and its benefits, and revolutions it can make. But I guess we don't need there time in BTC blockchain, we are getting what we need. And that is funds into BTC which is good for BTC dominance and for all investors.

In the medium term, perhaps the impact of Spot ETF on BTC and the entire crypto market will be very positive: more investors, more cash flow, more buying pressure, strong price increases, ATHs, profits for investors … Perhaps most investors only care about its negative impacts. Not many people want to change the way world finance works or want to support BTC in carrying out the revolution it was born with.

I hope that at some moment in future, when BTC has matured and reached very high prices, investors will become interested again in BTC's true mission in this world! Everything is not too late as long as we don't forget our dreams 💪

[Z-tight]

There is so much speculation on what would happen in the long run, we have seen the short term movement and BTC dumped after the approval, the long term may be positive in terms of price, but it is still speculation for now.

Losing the historical mission of Bitcoin: In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin as a method for people to have the right to self-custody of money, not dependent on third parties, escaping the traditional financial model that has a lot of problems.

I will agree with you here, not your keys, not your coins and if you buy BTC spot etf’s you don’t control your coins and that is a bad decision. But we cannot stop people from doing what they want, people even store their funds in centralized exchanges which is even worse in my honest opinion.