Mempool Observer - Discussion about Bitcoin Fees

[0t3p0t]

It's going up again this time, all I thought it will stay at around 10sats/vb or lower but yeah it started to rise and I don't know how high it will be going and I have this question in mind like is there a possibility of fees going down to 1 sats/vb? If there is a chance would you still hodl or withdraw?

[Stompix]

It's going up again this time, all I thought it will stay at around 10sats/vb or lower but yeah it started to rise and I don't know how high it will be going and I have this question in mind like is there a possibility of fees going down to 1 sats/vb? If there is a chance would you still hodl or withdraw?

Spikes happen now and then because of random block time, we had two blocks coming over 30 minutes apart in the last 7 and 5 hours, for example right now the block is late by 10 minutes, minimum fee for the blocks is 22sat/vb but min fee for the next one is just 8 sat/vb so it's just about patience right now.

There is simply no demand for backspace anymore, despite them being full of runes and ordinals they are not willing to pay that much, and neither are exchanges that consolidate huge amounts so most likely if nothing out of the ordinary happens we will hit 5 sat/vb by next weekend.

As for the 1sat/vb....that's a bit different, already at 4sat/vb it costs just a few thousand dollars to inscribe a full block with your "project" or put a game in there so we might hit a wall where spam is just to cheap to let fees go even lower.

[dkbit98]

This is very good time for consolidation of coins or for opening Lightning Network channels if you are using that.
Currently estimated fee in in mempool.space is around 8 sat/vB or $0.69, and this could change if bitcoin price changes and drops again.
I think this is quiet time before the Bitcoin storm.

[Yamane_Keto]

I don't know how high it will be going and I have this question in mind like is there a possibility of fees going down to 1 sats/vb? If there is a chance would you still hodl or withdraw?

Currently, some nodes allow you to broadcast a <2.67 sat/vB transaction, some may accept 2 sat/vB, but you can broadcast a transaction for 3 sat/vB. If the fees continue to drop, you may be able to get 1 sat/vB.

The contents of the next block are Consolidation data (combine all inputs), a few coinjoin, which means that fees may decrease in the coming hours.

[dwyane36]

This is very good time for consolidation of coins or for opening Lightning Network channels if you are using that.
Currently estimated fee in in mempool.space is around 8 sat/vB or $0.69, and this could change if bitcoin price changes and drops again.
I think this is quiet time before the Bitcoin storm.

Recently, the main reason why the fee has increased or decreased was not because of the BTC price but because of spamming by ordinals and rune transactions in the BTC network. I think you saw what happened in the BTC network right after the halving. However, now, the number of rune transactions is only 8.2% of the total transactions in the BTC network. Therefore, the fee is more or less adequate at the moment.

[Yamane_Keto]

Recently, the main reason why the fee has increased or decreased was not because of the BTC price but because of spamming by ordinals and rune transactions in the BTC network.

ordinals and rune transactions are not the majority of the data that is included in the last blocks. https://ordiscan.com/blocks will help you to review the latest ordinals that were included in blocks. most of currently mined data is Consolidation data and therefore the network is in good condition.

[Yamane_Keto]

I don't know how high it will be going and I have this question in mind like is there a possibility of fees going down to 1 sats/vb? If there is a chance would you still hodl or withdraw?

Currently, some nodes allow you to broadcast a <2.67 sat/vB transaction, some may accept 2 sat/vB, but you can broadcast a transaction for 3 sat/vB. If the fees continue to drop, you may be able to get 1 sat/vB.

1 sat/vB, If you have any pending transaction, it will be confirmed and it is an opportunity to group your inputs and/or open LN channels.

[Stompix]

1 sat/vB, If you have any pending transaction, it will be confirmed and it is an opportunity to group your inputs and/or open LN channels.

1 sat/vb won't be confirmed soon and it's still risky, one wave of consolidations dropped and you might be again kicked out of the mempool, if you really want 1 sat/vb there is no point broadcasting it now, even if everybody would stop sending tx you won't get a confirmation by tomorrow.

But if you have a normal tx probably the savings don't matter anymore, 50 cents for next block versus the cheapest technically possible of 10 cents, no point waiting.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This is very good time for consolidation of coins or for opening Lightning Network channels if you are using that.
Currently estimated fee in in mempool.space is around 8 sat/vB or $0.69, and this could change if bitcoin price changes and drops again.
I think this is quiet time before the Bitcoin storm.

After a long time, like 3 to 4 weeks, I decided to do some bitcoin transactions this morning, and I think I've never had a smoother experience, vbyte was at 8 satoshies, and for a transaction of about $200, I paid a total of $0.9 in fees, and it did not end there, I was literally expecting the transaction to take atleast, up to 30 minutes before I get a confirmation, but amazing, I got my first and second confirmation in less than 4 minutes, I was like "wow, so bitcoin transactions can a get confirmation this fast" 😍, I loved it to be honest, and wish It can only remain that way.

But I guess it's never going to remain this way since the bull run comes wit a lot of on chain activities, so, I guess it's OK to expect the fees to start to rise again as we enter another bullish season.

[dkbit98]

1 sat/vB, If you have any pending transaction, it will be confirmed and it is an opportunity to group your inputs and/or open LN channels.

Don't tell people to send any bitcoin transaction using minimal fee of 1 sat/vB, especially not for consolidation of their coins!
Using fee around 5 sat/vB is acceptable and it's not going to make anyone poor for paying few cents more.

[Yamane_Keto]

1 sat/vb won't be confirmed soon and it's still risky, one wave of consolidations dropped and you might be again kicked out of the mempool,

Don't tell people to send any bitcoin transaction using minimal fee of 1 sat/vB, especially not for consolidation of their coins!
Using fee around 5 sat/vB is acceptable and it's not going to make anyone poor for paying few cents more.

I did not recommend this, but a month ago 0t3p0t asked about the possibility that we would see 1 sats/vb. I had predicted that it might happen in the coming weeks, and yesterday it was possible to broadcast a transaction with 1 sats/vb.
We have an average of ~9.6 minutes and DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT will occur in the next 30 hours so during July I don't think we will see the ability to broadcast a 1 sats/vb transaction again.

I don't know how high it will be going and I have this question in mind like is there a possibility of fees going down to 1 sats/vb? If there is a chance would you still hodl or withdraw?

Currently, some nodes allow you to broadcast a <2.67 sat/vB transaction, some may accept 2 sat/vB, but you can broadcast a transaction for 3 sat/vB. If the fees continue to drop, you may be able to get 1 sat/vB.

1 sat/vB, If you have any pending transaction, it will be confirmed and it is an opportunity to group your inputs and/or open LN channels.

[bitmover]

I did not recommend this, but a month ago 0t3p0t asked about the possibility that we would see 1 sats/vb. I had predicted that it might happen in the coming weeks, and yesterday it was possible to broadcast a transaction with 1 sats/vb.

You will broadcast at 1 sat/vB

It will be propagated, but it will probably drop after a few days... it won't get confirmed anytime soon.
I agree that we will see 1 sat vB again, but it might take months...

[Stompix]

I did not recommend this, but a month ago 0t3p0t asked about the possibility that we would see 1 sats/vb. I had predicted that it might happen in the coming weeks, and yesterday it was possible to broadcast a transaction with 1 sats/vb.
We have an average of ~9.6 minutes and DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT will occur in the next 30 hours so during July I don't think we will see the ability to broadcast a 1 sats/vb transaction again.

You could have broadcasted a 1sat/vb even months ago, the purge limit does not mean all nodes will reject it or drop it, there are hundreds of nodes with way higher mempool sizes than standard (mine is one), and a lot of clients would still re-broadcast your transactions to nodes if they see it's dropped.
But just as broadcasting one two months ago and one now, is just as futile,  it would be nearly impossible at this pace to get a confirmation even in two weeks unless something really, but really out of the ordinary happens and I can't even think of such an event.

[Yamane_Keto]

But just as broadcasting one two months ago and one now, is just as futile,  it would be nearly impossible at this pace to get a confirmation even in two weeks unless something really, but really out of the ordinary happens and I can't even think of such an event.

It will be propagated, but it will probably drop after a few days... it won't get confirmed anytime soon.
I agree that we will see 1 sat vB again, but it might take months...

Many last blocks included transactions with 4 SAT/VB There are still 5 hours before Adjustment and with the number of transactions, there is a good possibility that 1 SAT/VB is accepted in the upcoming blocks (12-40 block)

[examplens]

Many last blocks included transactions with 4 SAT/VB There are still 5 hours before Adjustment and with the number of transactions, there is a good possibility that 1 SAT/VB is accepted in the upcoming blocks (12-40 block)

It looked like that a few days ago, so I sent some transactions with 3sat/vb, but they are still in pending status. I think it can only be expected during the weekend when there is less activity and fewer transactions on the network in general. Unless something unplanned happens.