Mempool Observer - Discussion about Bitcoin Fees

[NotATether]

Many last blocks included transactions with 4 SAT/VB There are still 5 hours before Adjustment and with the number of transactions, there is a good possibility that 1 SAT/VB is accepted in the upcoming blocks (12-40 block)

It looked like that a few days ago, so I sent some transactions with 3sat/vb, but they are still in pending status. I think it can only be expected during the weekend when there is less activity and fewer transactions on the network in general. Unless something unplanned happens.

The standard fee rate right now is still 6 sats/vbytes, and I believe there are hundreds - if not thousands - of transactions queues up at that fee rate, so they all have to be processed, and quickly, before you can think of the fee rate going down to 3, 4, and even 5 sats per vbyte.

The same will happen for the lower fee rates until (if?) it reaches 1 sat/vbyte.

[bitmover]

Many last blocks included transactions with 4 SAT/VB There are still 5 hours before Adjustment and with the number of transactions, there is a good possibility that 1 SAT/VB is accepted in the upcoming blocks (12-40 block)

It looked like that a few days ago, so I sent some transactions with 3sat/vb, but they are still in pending status. I think it can only be expected during the weekend when there is less activity and fewer transactions on the network in general. Unless something unplanned happens.

The standard fee rate right now is still 6 sats/vbytes, and I believe there are hundreds - if not thousands - of transactions queues up at that fee rate, so they all have to be processed, and quickly, before you can think of the fee rate going down to 3, 4, and even 5 sats per vbyte.

The same will happen for the lower fee rates until (if?) it reaches 1 sat/vbyte.

according to mempool.space, 70% of the next 152 blocks are all filled with 2 sat/vB or more.



Which means, if nobody makes a new transaction with fee rate higher than 1 sat v/B in the next 1000 minutes (100 blocks, aprox. 17 hours), you will get a confirmation of 1.99 sat v/B in the next 17 hours.

[Stompix]

~

Many last blocks included transactions with 4 SAT/VB There are still 5 hours before Adjustment and with the number of transactions, there is a good possibility that 1 SAT/VB is accepted in the upcoming blocks (12-40 block)

Impossible, even assuming 1.99 sat and the lowest mempool point in the last week you would still need no new transactions and 40 blocks, so around 6 hours with nobody sending one damn tx to reach just under 2sat/vb not full 1.00 sat/vb.
But every time the fees drop to a new low you have an influx of consolidations, I watched yesterday someone dumping 20 tx with 1000+ inputs in a few seconds, those will just keep on happening as we drop lower and lower.

It looked like that a few days ago, so I sent some transactions with 3sat/vb, but they are still in pending status. I think it can only be expected during the weekend when there is less activity and fewer transactions on the network in general. Unless something unplanned happens.

We hit 3.98 early Monday, and I'm quite confident we might get to 2.98 next Monday morning (GMT time), I have a feeling everyone knows the fees will go down and just waits on the side, much like they wait for the next 4 years cycle.

[philipma1957]

I paid 5.1 a day ago.  All shit is consolidated at this time.

1) biggest wallet
2) second biggest wallet
3) third wallet

all of the above are my wallets. All are narrowed to 1 tx

[pieppiep]

After several months of not really observing the movement of transaction fees using the mempool network, I was very surprised to see that transaction fees had become very cheap. This is a very good opportunity to do arbitrage, but remember we have to move quickly because we take advantage of price differences between exchange places.

[bayu7adi]

Are unconfirmed transactions an indication of the density of transactions occurring on the Bitcoin blockchain network?

I see the number of unconfirmed transactions between when the transaction fee is high and also between the current low transaction fee is not much different... I remember very well when I had to use a fee of 70 sat/vB when a dust attack occurred, the number of unconfirmed tx was listed there around 230k-240k too, the same as now where the current transaction fee is 2-4 sat/vB.

Is the conclusion, unconfirmed tx on the mempool does not present the density of transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain network?

[dragononcrypto]

I paid 5.1 a day ago.  All shit is consolidated at this time.

1) biggest wallet
2) second biggest wallet
3) third wallet

all of the above are my wallets. All are narrowed to 1 tx

Just to say I did this last week at 3 sats, although this is obviously not a competition 

I need to remember this 0.1 scheme in future though, I see a lot of it around. Even 0.01 to jump in the queue.

I also did the same consolidation wise, last time I did it was about a year ago I think.

1) Main wallet - few inputs put together from some change
2) DCA wallet - numerous inputs consolidated from years ago
3) Bounty wallet - consolidated remaining unconsolidated txs

As far as I can tell it's otherwise been a month or so that 3 sats has been processing relatively quickly per:
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),30d,count

[Stompix]

Are unconfirmed transactions an indication of the density of transactions occurring on the Bitcoin blockchain network?

Not really, you can have 1 tx occupying the same space as 5000 others, and that number of tx in the queue is quite irrelevant, it's just waiting transactions, that can change at any time with a dump or go down with a few fast blocks full of runes and the average fees won't change by even 0.1 sat/vb The size would be more relevant to see how much pressure is put on the mempool but yet again, if that's 90% in 1sat/cv is of no impact to the fees.

What really matters is the next 6 blocks in line to be confirmed and their fee structure, that's a more reliable indicator of what's happening at the moment.

[Mia Chloe]

Nice to see this topic here too. Anyways today I experienced something a little funny on the MEMPOOL. Though it wasn't a big deal I just thought I'd share it here probably we'll have a couple opinions about it.  Before I make any transaction I usually check the MEMPOOL just to know what fees are like in the current block and most recent block. I'm aware that fees on the MEMPOOL are dynamic, however today before I made my transaction I could see 7 sats/vbytes as the highest priority fees so I just decided I'd use 4.5 sats /vbyte. Anyways I was a little surprised when I came back to observe few seconds after I made my transaction that fees dropped to 3 sats /vbytes.

Anyone experienced this kinda shift before?

[joniboini]

Anyways I was a little surprised when I came back to observe few seconds after I made my transaction that fees dropped to 3 sats /vbytes.

There's no way your published transaction fees change randomly. You need to replace your transaction if you want to change the fee (e.g., bumping fee on an RBF-enabled transaction). CMIIW.

 Are you sure you don't misread the mempool info? Some explorers use different ways to show transaction fees so you might see some differences here and there. That being said, some websites may be slow to update so they show the wrong info. How does your tx look on your wallet?

[dragononcrypto]

Nice to see this topic here too. Anyways today I experienced something a little funny on the MEMPOOL. Though it wasn't a big deal I just thought I'd share it here probably we'll have a couple opinions about it.  Before I make any transaction I usually check the MEMPOOL just to know what fees are like in the current block and most recent block. I'm aware that fees on the MEMPOOL are dynamic, however today before I made my transaction I could see 7 sats/vbytes as the highest priority fees so I just decided I'd use 4.5 sats /vbyte. Anyways I was a little surprised when I came back to observe few seconds after I made my transaction that fees dropped to 3 sats /vbytes.

Anyone experienced this kinda shift before?

It sounds like you might of transmitted the transaction just before a block was found? This would explain the drop in expected fee from 7 to 3 within seconds. Either that or it was just a bad estimate, maybe based on the past minute or so of transactions, as opposed to the past 10 minutes. Lot's of different reasons why estimates can be inaccurate basically.

That's why I prefer using something like mempool.space if it's not high priority transaction and you're willing to wait 10-30 minutes. You can then avoid paying the price of the current block that is in progress, and go with the cost of the previous few blocks (assuming the current block fee cost is an outlier). I otherwise wouldn't pay too much attention to the predicted fees in future blocks (excluding the current one), as naturally these will increase with more transactions submitted (as it's based only on the current mempool, not the developing mempool).

[Stompix]

Anyways I was a little surprised when I came back to observe few seconds after I made my transaction that fees dropped to 3 sats /vbytes.

There's no way your published transaction fees change randomly. You need to replace your transaction if you want to change the fee (e.g., bumping fee on an RBF-enabled transaction). CMIIW.

Average fees not the fees that he paid!
It is a common occurrence because of either a dump from some exchange or long time between blocks
https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000000c63d0ef9faedfa4eec5d9138207713c7b19000436f78
https://mempool.space/block/0000000000000000000206087b5e88b87e2b89e05ba6108036a366e1d7eff1ee

First block was at 03:08:34  the next one at 04:17:57 , more than one hour instead of 10 minutes so the fees went from 2sat/vb to 7sat/vb, and 5 blocks later back to 2sat/vb.

[Mia Chloe]

It sounds like you might of transmitted the transaction just before a block was found? This would explain the drop in expected fee from 7 to 3 within seconds. Either that or it was just a bad estimate, maybe based on the past minute or so of transactions, as opposed to the past 10 minutes. Lot's of different reasons why estimates can be inaccurate basically.

I think you get my point. The fact is I understand what happened and it was quite awkward to me because of the shift it the fee rate were quite large and judging from the whole scenario that they i was kinda skeptical about the fees anyways like I said before I still proceeded to making use of it simply because I just thought like it was still within the working hours of the US and during those periods fees are usually kinda high.
Anyways I experienced something almost similar today but it was just a few SATs in difference. I think I'll stick to making use of 3 sats/byte since for quite some time now that has been the average fee though sometimes fees dance up and down that value.

[bitmover]

1 sat/vb are real now!

Just got a transaction confirmed!! I am warning everyone so you guys can make your consolidations!

I remember so many people saying it was never going to happen! Here are we are! Bitcoin is amazing!

[Findingnemo]

1 sat/vb are real now!

Just got a transaction confirmed!! I am warning everyone so you guys can make your consolidations!

I remember so many people saying it was never going to happen! Here are we are! Bitcoin is amazing!

1sat/vb transactions are quite common now but it's better to use 1.1sat/vb to skip the long queue of 1sat.vb transactions. It's the best time for consolidation because we never know when the network will be clogged and fees could skyrocket for short term.