Mempool Observer - Discussion about Bitcoin Fees

[dkbit98]

I believe that with institutional investment the values have increased, larger purchases, large holders and without so many transactions from ordinary users, like us hehehe
ETFs must also have helped in this regard, since you can buy and sell ETFs without having to make transactions
It also helps that nothing is happening in Bitcoin like it did with the runes

Sure, we have some institutional money, but I think that the hype around the Trump was making people wait to see what will happen after he comes in office.
Don't get me wrong, I think that low fees are great to have, but this looks like to me like a quiet time before the storm.

Trump's inauguration did not bring a spectacular ATH, so now we have a lot of holders who buys the high.

I think we already had Bitcoin ATH around $108,786, that is not much different than current price.
There are multiple factors like monetary policy and rate cuts and also affect the price, and maybe the fees.

[Stompix]

~

Yes, it's a long-term dilemma.
Don't you think that over time some hardware will be developed that will be significantly more energy efficient? As mining hardware has changed during these 15 years, from that point of view 2035 is very far away.

Hardware efficiency is meaningless.
Right now you have ~750Exahash protecting the network because each TH/s is making 5 cents.
If efficiency grows 1000 times you will have machines that mine in petahashes instead of ths/s but doing the same profits for pt/s instead of th/s.

What matters in terms of security is how much miners make a day, the network is protected by that amount, not by hashes.
If miners make 100$ a day that means 34k a year someone who can invest half a million will be able to do a  90% attack, lol.
If miners make 100 million a day it means they can invest at least 36 billion in gear to protect the network.

[examplens]

Hardware efficiency is meaningless.
Right now you have ~750Exahash protecting the network because each TH/s is making 5 cents.
If efficiency grows 1000 times you will have machines that mine in petahashes instead of ths/s but doing the same profits for pt/s instead of th/s.

I wasn't thinking about hardware power but about lower costs for the same work.
How much does it cost TH/s until it realizes that 5 cents?
If electricity consumption were to be halved, wouldn't that have a direct impact on the miner's total profit?

[bitmover]

Anyhow, I don't care that much financially since I don't mine anymore, but I'm still curious how things will work since those fees were the ones supposedly keeping the network safe once the reward is gone, and what we see is that usage is gone way before that.

Yes, it's a long-term dilemma.
Don't you think that over time some hardware will be developed that will be significantly more energy efficient? As mining hardware has changed during these 15 years, from that point of view 2035 is very far away.

Mining rewards are still high enough. Miners are receiving 330 thousand dollars per block, even with 1 sat vb fees.

That is not a problem now.  High fees now could even cause a price drop, making this mining reward smaller in usd value.

[Stompix]

~

I wasn't thinking about hardware power but about lower costs for the same work.
How much does it cost TH/s until it realizes that 5 cents?
If electricity consumption were to be halved, wouldn't that have a direct impact on the miner's total profit?

Doesn't matter!
You have 100 guys with S9 mining, doing each 14th/s and burning 1.3kw, spending 10$ for 1% of the profits.
There comes a guy with an s19 and he makes 10% of the pot while spending 3$, everyone will do the same
100 guys with an s19 mining, each generating 100th/s, burning 3kw spending 3$ and getting 1% of the profits.

Energy consumption for the network will always be somewhere around 75-90% of the reward, that is the only thing limiting it, and if it drops to 10$ we're back to CPU mining. 

You can check the electricity consumption for the network, we went from 1th per kw to 30th per kw in efficiency and despite that the consumption has grown because the pot was bigger.

That is not a problem now.

Reminds me of the electricity problem in Germany.
2022 What can we do, we can't build back nuclear power plants, it takes 10-15 years!
2023 What can we do, we can't build back nuclear power plants, it takes 10-15 years!
2024 What can we do, we can't build back nuclear power plants, it takes 10-15 years!
...
2080, if only we would have started building those nuclear plants back in 2022!

 

[bitmover]

That is not a problem now.

Reminds me of the electricity problem in Germany.
2022 What can we do, we can't build back nuclear power plants, it takes 10-15 years!
2023 What can we do, we can't build back nuclear power plants, it takes 10-15 years!
2024 What can we do, we can't build back nuclear power plants, it takes 10-15 years!
...
2080, if only we would have started building those nuclear plants back in 2022!

I don`t think bitcoin protocol should be changed because of bad decisions made by German politicians years ago.
Domestic esg and woke policies made by one country are irrelevant. Innovation and technology will simple come from other countries

There is plenty energy in the world to make a secure financial system, even AI is consuming more power than bitcoin right now.


Bitcoin fees will adapt to the current mining reward... Probably more people will be using bitcoin in the future, and common people will use L2 for cheaper tx if they need.

[rdluffy]

Source

I didn't know the mempool hadn't been empty for two years
Impressive 
BTC at 100k and mempool empty

[bitmover]

Source

I didn't know the mempool hadn't been empty for two years
Impressive 
BTC at 100k and mempool empty

technically, nodes shouldn't propagate 0 sat/vbyte fees

I believe those 0 sat/vbyte are probably miners transactions, which they added by themselves

[SmartGold01]

Source

I didn't know the mempool hadn't been empty for two years
Impressive 
BTC at 100k and mempool empty

technically, nodes shouldn't propagate 0 sat/vbyte fees

I believe those 0 sat/vbyte are probably miners transactions, which they added by themselves

I have never met with 1 sat/vbyte before while doing transactions, the least I have ever meet is 3 sat/vbyte and i see that fair enough for transactions since is not up to 50 cent in the transaction I sees it fair enough. But I believe I will target 1 or 2 sat.

[bitmover]

I have never met with 1 sat/vbyte before while doing transactions, the least I have ever meet is 3 sat/vbyte and i see that fair enough for transactions since is not up to 50 cent in the transaction I sees it fair enough. But I believe I will target 1 or 2 sat.

You can try now!

You can make some consolidations of your signature campagins earnings.

Select all your inputs from the same address and make a 1 sat/vb transaction to another (or the same) address.

This way you will save a lot of money in the future. Because each input basically counts as a new transaction in terms of cost and fees

[philipma1957]

I have never met with 1 sat/vbyte before while doing transactions, the least I have ever meet is 3 sat/vbyte and i see that fair enough for transactions since is not up to 50 cent in the transaction I sees it fair enough. But I believe I will target 1 or 2 sat.

You can try now!

You can make some consolidations of your signature campagins earnings.

Select all your inputs from the same address and make a 1 sat/vb transaction to another (or the same) address.

This way you will save a lot of money in the future. Because each input basically counts as a new transaction in terms of cost and fees

going to consolidate right now using 1.23 sats

[SmartGold01]

I have never met with 1 sat/vbyte before while doing transactions, the least I have ever meet is 3 sat/vbyte and i see that fair enough for transactions since is not up to 50 cent in the transaction I sees it fair enough. But I believe I will target 1 or 2 sat.

You can try now!

You can make some consolidations of your signature campagins earnings.

Select all your inputs from the same address and make a 1 sat/vb transaction to another (or the same) address.

This way you will save a lot of money in the future. Because each input basically counts as a new transaction in terms of cost and fees

I didn't know about this as well.. you know I don't really know much about technical knowledge of wallet and transaction. But I just understand the sat/vbyte of a thing, so while doing transaction I make sure it's not stuck halfway where I would have to bump fee to come confirm so quickly.
Maybe I will try out what you said in the morning,  but while doing this I have to use my pc to avoid mistake.

[Stompix]

I don`t think bitcoin protocol should be changed because of bad decisions made by German politicians years ago.

It was just an example of not acting and thinking that things will resolve on their own by god knows what miracles.
Right now everyone is banking on these solutions:
- big players running this at a loss to protect their investment (why should they and goodbye decentralization)
- people paying more just for unknown reasons...

Bottom line to have the same level of security as previously the fees must match the reward, I don't see blocks full with 100$ per tx to cover that, not to mention that with every increase in BTC price you have a bigger target. I said it before, nobody really cared on attacking it while it was a 1 billion network, when it becomes a 10 trillion one, perspective do change!

[bitmover]

while doing transaction I make sure it's not stuck halfway where I would have to bump fee to come confirm so quickly.
Maybe I will try out what you said in the morning,  but while doing this I have to use my pc to avoid mistake.

Maybe you could try a better wallet, which will help you understand things better.

I use Electrum, download it from electrum.org

Bottom line to have the same level of security as previously the fees must match the reward, I don't see blocks full with 100$ per tx to cover that, not to mention that with every increase in BTC price you have a bigger target. I said it before, nobody really cared on attacking it while it was a 1 billion network, when it becomes a 10 trillion one, perspective do change!

I think fees should match the block subside in USD values, not in BTC value.

So, when subside becomes irrelevant BTC price may be something like 1 million dollars or even more. In this situation, even a small fee such as 10-100 sat/vB might be enough to match the total block reward from today's time.

There are some developers which defend smaller blocks. This would skyrocket fees.


https://x.com/LukeDashjr/status/1884095432613396564

[SmartGold01]

while doing transaction I make sure it's not stuck halfway where I would have to bump fee to come confirm so quickly.
Maybe I will try out what you said in the morning,  but while doing this I have to use my pc to avoid mistake.

Maybe you could try a better wallet, which will help you understand things better.

I use Electrum, download it from electrum.org

I have Electrum already downloaded with my pc, so what I meant is that while doing such transaction I would have to use my PC as I am not that comfortable using my Smartphone for any transaction to avoid series of mistakes or sending back payment to the same address that sent me payment.