Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts

[tranthidung]

Thanks for sharing this topic, it was deeply buried in the section that's why I did not come to read it, I suggest, this topic of yours (the one you mentioned above) will suit better in the trading section, or in the help section.

It's my mistake when publishing it and it's painful because in altcoinstalks, I can not move my topic to another board.

Talking about judging the market, I do know we can't judge the market 100% but we can make some plans or strategies to minimize the loss and increase the profit and that will do the work of timing the market. I read your mentioned topic and it was refreshing because the things were already in my mind but I was like not giving any importance to them. But now I realize the importance of a plan.

I don't know what is the mentioned topic in your post by if you have yet read an insightful topic for investment strategy, I invite you to read it now or when you have time.

• Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you
• Discussion is in that topic, so I won't repeat it here.

I suggest add the link that directly leads us to the cohort page.

Follow https://twitter.com/glassnode that sometimes give you free information about it but with some delays because you know, it's free lunch.

Sometimes, you will have it free from Glassnode Insights' on-chain weekly report.

[tranthidung]

Three top categories for >10k, 1k-10k, 100-1k, have good continuation and prolong of their accumulations. We can see these top band are all in blue that signal whale accumulation. Below top three whale bands, other Bitcoin holders have been taking profit and temporarily exiting the market.

This is detected by Cryptoquant and their own metric with definition for accumulative addresses.

Definition of an Accumulation Address:

1/ No outgoing txns.
2/ Balance exceeding 10 BTC.
3/ Excludes accounts belonging to centralized exchanges (CEXs) or miners.
4/ Has received more than two incoming txns.
5/ The most recent transaction occurred within the last 7 years.

[tranthidung]

The accumulation trend has been expanding to smaller wallet cohorts. Things are becoming more interesting and Bitcoin is on fire.

Even it is only in light blue, it is a start of something big.

Please share that are you still holding your bitcoin or already sold it and are waiting for corrections?

Best has yet come as Google search volume has yet soar

• https://www.theblock.co/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/web-traffic
• https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en
• https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble

[tranthidung]

Ecoinometrics gives similar information in their newsletter.

• A bullish Bitcoin whales pattern.

Whales are setting up the game but will you join their party and take advantage of it or you just react like other small fishes and waste this free opportunity. You decide.

Also, please read

• We are still early in this bull run. Retails have yet come back massively!
• In early of a bull run, you need to hold tightly, tight your seat-bell and hold your bitcoin

[tranthidung]

Some whales sparsely sold their bitcoins but the good news is all cohorts are still in blue and we are going to accumulation phase for all.

Sell days ago and bought a dip or sell now and wait for another dip that might or might not come. What will you do?

Holding your bitcoin if you missed both chances to take profit above $69,000 and a dip to $59,000.
Selling now and wait for a dip with lot of hope that it will come but as said, it might not come.

[pacar_tiri]

Some whales sparsely sold their bitcoins but the good news is all cohorts are still in blue and we are going to accumulation phase for all.

Sell days ago and bought a dip or sell now and wait for another dip that might or might not come. What will you do?

Holding your bitcoin if you missed both chances to take profit above $69,000 and a dip to $59,000.
Selling now and wait for a dip with lot of hope that it will come but as said, it might not come.
~

Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days, which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.

[Primo1760]

Above is the chart from Glassnode for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.

Because

• Halving is only three months ahead
• Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.

I don't have the ability to hold bitcoins like a whale but I am constantly increasing my investment by working here. Currently I am in a lot of profit in this pumping market.  I hope I can achieve more success if the market grows more. All of the whales you mentioned here have a lot of money which is why they are able to invest more than I can afford to invest and carry on with that investment. I look forward to the next bull market where the price will definitely increase and create more new ATH in the market than now and that ATH will grow my investment much more.

[tranthidung]

Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days

Halving will happen next 41 days, not few days.

which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.

Whales actually are smart than retails and they accumulated Bitcoin with cheap prices ahead of retails. They manipulate the market and they know what they are doing.

Continue to rise?
I am not sure because the market usually reacts oppositely with what the crowd include majority of retails, think of.

Because we can not predict the market, like when Bitcoin will have corrections, it's better to just hold it and take profit at new ATH that should be much higher than $70,000.

[tranthidung]

People are continuing their Bitcoin accumulations and the blue is dominating all bands and expands more with time.

Another on-chain data source, from CryptoQuant, we have some additional information about accumulation from Retail Cohorts.
 
They are back but their on-chain activities still are not enough to identify that the bull run already hits its peak. Two used metrics are BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts; and Realized Cap < 1 Month (%).

With the first metric, he said Bitcoin probably already is half of its way to Euphoria area that I agree with because my target price would be somewhere around $120,000.

I don't exclude that with Bitcoin Spot ETF capital and impacts, Bitcoin might do more than doubling its 2021 ATH.

[Rex067]

Above is the chart from Glassnode for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.

Because

• Halving is only three months ahead
• Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.

The point of this thread is the 10+k Cohort just started their accumulation. See the top blue row in the chart and now we have three top rows (whales) are accumulating Bitcoin after long time of distribution.

Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.

Note:

• It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

Well, it's a tools used to measure the accumulation of Bitcoin in different groups of investor's. By calculation it takes average holding period of each cohort and. Weighing it against the number of Bitcoin vin circulation. This make it possible to know how much Bitcoin is held by different groups and they're accumulation among the different cohorts.

[tranthidung]

After one month, perhaps it's good time to have an update on Bitcoin Trend accumulation score by cohorts. After some weeks of chaos and corrections, all cohorts are selling except the 10+ cohort which is still accumulating.

If you took profit during last four weeks, it's time to think of accumulation back. Weeks ago, I posted that Bitcoin probably will drop to $52k to $53k but I also want to emphasize that with order filling market, peak, bottom and accumulation phase of the market will be in range, not a price point.

So if you are going long term with Bitcoin, it's time for returning with accumulation.

[robelneo]

Halving happened just hours ago and the transaction fees are in chaos it went to over $200 if you're a small trader I don't think this is the right time to transact after the halving this is the right time to accumulate the spike in transaction fees is attributed to the new protocol.

So many users are rushing to mint this token, right now I'm monitoring the price on when it will go back to where it was so I can transact again.

Transaction fees spiked on Bitcoin as the launch of a new protocol called Runes led to a flurry of transactions as speculators rushed to mint digital tokens atop the blockchain.

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/20/bitcoin-blockchain-has-fourth-halving-in-15-year-history-in-show-of-monetary-policy-set-by-code/

[tranthidung]

Glassnode Insights with their latest report has an update on Bitcoin trend accumulation by cohorts.

• Week 18, 2024 report

Accumulation Trend Score
First, we will employ the Accumulation Trend Score to illustrate how investor accumulation patterns have shaped local tops and bottoms since the FTX crash.

During the early stages of both the 2020-21 and 2023-24 bull runs, we can see a confluence between local regimes of distribution (light colours) and intervals of price contraction. As the market rallies to new highs, sell pressure is re-activated, as investors bring dormant supply back into the market to satisfy the inflowing demand.

As spot price reached new ATHs in mid-March, the same pattern of local distribution occurred, which was intensified as news around the conflict in the Middle East broke, causing a correction to $60.3k.

Bull local distribution break-down
If we inspect the breakdown of this metric by wallet sizes, we can complete a more detailed assessment. Here we see a distinct uptick in net outflows 🟥 across all cohorts throughout April, suggesting a consistent sell-side pressure across the board.

I really hope to see this healthy correction and local distribution lasts for a while, like some months to help NUPL to drop further.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/

[UNIVERSE]

Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days, which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.

In fact, the reality is not that simple. Even after the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to decline, and today, it became one of the peaks of the drop after the halving. Quite surprising, but again it may also be influenced by current issues.

I also don't think that the price of BTC will fall back below $60k, but I think even if it drops, it won't be this far. However, the net even touched $56k. and there is a possibility of even more drops. That's certainly going to be quite panic-inducing for Bitcoin shorter hodlers especially, or people who are just entering the crypto world, right?

[enwi]

Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days, which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.

In fact, the reality is not that simple. Even after the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to decline, and today, it became one of the peaks of the drop after the halving. Quite surprising, but again it may also be influenced by current issues.

I also don't think that the price of BTC will fall back below $60k, but I think even if it drops, it won't be this far. However, the net even touched $56k. and there is a possibility of even more drops. That's certainly going to be quite panic-inducing for Bitcoin shorter hodlers especially, or people who are just entering the crypto world, right?

It is true that currently the price of bitcoin after the halving continues to show a decline in price, but you have to know that it is not easy to increase the price of bitcoin, it requires a lot of money to be burned to buy bitcoin at a very expensive price. usually to do that whales will wait for good news that can trigger whales to buy bitcoin again.