Bitcoin Spot ETF Tracker

[Peter90]

I don't think that buying OTC doesn't impact the BTC price.

It does, please read below.

I know it does Tran,
I just formulated it very badly  using a double negative "I don't think that buying OTC doesn't impact the BTC price".
I could say the same in a easier way "I think that buying OTC impact the BTC price" 


As I said, the reason for that is that - unlike black markets - OTC markets are connected (e.g. through arbitrageurs) with regulated markets, so that...
no OTC seller will sell under the spot price: he would rather sell on the regulated market;
no OTC seller will be able to sell above the spot price: the buyer would go on the regulated market;
no OTC buyer will buy above the spot price: he would rather buy on the regulated market.

This interconnection between OTC and regulated allows the speculation/greedy game that you rightly describe.


* I talk about regulated markets because the definition of OTC market is unregulated market, so the opposite of OTC is regulated.
You talk about Spot markets because what comes out of regulated markets is called spot price.
It's the same, and we are both right 

** I very much like the charts

[tranthidung]

The trend is going to be strong as the chart for daily bought / sold Bitcoin by Bitcoin Spot ETFs shows. They are going to 300,000 BTC bought BTC that is a huge number after only 29 days of trading. BlackRock are leading and outperforming other ETFs.

Additionally, Bitcoin exchange balance has dropped a lot since day 1 of Bitcoin Spot ETF trading according data from Coinglass.
https://www.coinglass.com/Balance

[tranthidung]

Some summary graphics about Bitcoin Spot ETF trading in last month.

• Selling pressure from Grayscale (investors) eventually began to slow down and with less selling pressure from Grayscale, the inflow will outperform outflow.
• From January to February, net inflows of all Bitcoin Spot ETFs increases a lot from 33k [btc] to 85k [btc].
• We also can see the new supply crisis. Last 28 days, all Bitcoin Spot ETF bought 272k [btc], Grayscale sold 167k [btc] and more important, only 25,2k [btc] was mined from latest Bitcoin blocks. This crisis will become bigger after the halving in April.

• https://twitter.com/TheCryptoZombie/status/1761122243235414302
• https://twitter.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1762286478116503683

[IvugeoEvolutionCoin]

Some summary graphics about Bitcoin Spot ETF trading in last month.

• Selling pressure from Grayscale (investors) eventually began to slow down and with less selling pressure from Grayscale, the inflow will outperform outflow.
• From January to February, net inflows of all Bitcoin Spot ETFs increases a lot from 33k [btc] to 85k [btc].
• We also can see the new supply crisis. Last 28 days, all Bitcoin Spot ETF bought 272k [btc], Grayscale sold 167k [btc] and more important, only 25,2k [btc] was mined from latest Bitcoin blocks. This crisis will become bigger after the halving in April.

• https://twitter.com/TheCryptoZombie/status/1761122243235414302
• https://twitter.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1762286478116503683

With the graph you provided, I am sure that Grayscale is currently having a headache because it is too quick to sell Bitcoin at cheap prices. Even though the price of Bitcoin could reach $100k in the near future, this is approaching the halving that will occur. Imagine how regretful Grayscale will be when the target I mentioned can be achieved. this year. Hopefully this is an important lesson for Grayscale and others because, basically, this lesson has already happened in the case of the person who bought a pizza and paid 10,000 Bitcoin. Imagine how rich he would be if he didn't do something silly like that.

[pawel7777]

With the graph you provided, I am sure that Grayscale is currently having a headache because it is too quick to sell Bitcoin at cheap prices. Even though the price of Bitcoin could reach $100k in the near future, this is approaching the halving that will occur. Imagine how regretful Grayscale will be when the target I mentioned can be achieved. this year. Hopefully this is an important lesson for Grayscale and others because, basically, this lesson has already happened in the case of the person who bought a pizza and paid 10,000 Bitcoin. Imagine how rich he would be if he didn't do something silly like that.

Grayscale is an ETF, so the bitcoins sold did not belong to them, but to their clients, a lot of whom sold their Grayscale shares to buy shares in other, much cheaper ETFs (in terms of fees), as Greyscale was the most expensive one.
And, if I remember correctly, a big portion of the sell-off was due to selling shares belonging to bankrupted FTX, to satisfy their creditors.

[tranthidung]

Grayscale is an ETF, so the bitcoins sold did not belong to them, but to their clients, a lot of whom sold their Grayscale shares to buy shares in other, much cheaper ETFs (in terms of fees), as Greyscale was the most expensive one.

Please note that by selling, they accept to pay tax and not all investors will be ready to pay tax, that explains there are still significant investors stay at Grayscale.

And, if I remember correctly, a big portion of the sell-off was due to selling shares belonging to bankrupted FTX, to satisfy their creditors.

It's correct. The selling pressure from Grayscale (on behalf of their investors) is reducing a lot recent days. Other Bitcoin Spot ETFs absorb that selling pressure very well and they even are buying much more than selling volume from Grayscale.

FTX Sold About $1B of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, Explaining Much of Outflow.

[tranthidung]

We can check Bitcoin Spot ETFs' service fees with links in OP but I just saw a summary table for it. It is helpful to summarize the fee war among Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
source.

• Grayscale is the outlier with most expensive fee. They are losing customers.
• BlackRock and Fidelity are in a most cheapest fee range and they are winners now. We have to know that they already are big ETF management entities and have good reputation before joining Bitcoin market.
• Other Bitcoin Spot ETFs can have same cheap fees like BlackRock and Fidelity or even cheaper but it is impossible for them to compete against these two.

[tranthidung]

• There is $2.93B in latest 7 days and the chart shows most of days have positive Bitcoin ETF flows.
• Bitcoin Spot ETFs are making noise and biggest ones like Black Rock, Fidelity are one of most successful ETFs ever. When will those ETFs buy bitcoin to the future supply of Bitcoin that is 1,352,179 more BTC.

[tranthidung]

You guys don't know a script on trading view to get Bitcoin Spot ETF volumes cumulatively and individually.

• https://www.tradingview.com/script/6CtUUCF5-Daily-Spot-Bitcoin-ETF-Volumes-USD/
• It is added to OP as well.

BlackRock now has more bitcoins than MicroStrategy, after only 40 days of trading since an approval from SEC.

[pacar_tiri]

• There is $2.93B in latest 7 days and the chart shows most of days have positive Bitcoin ETF flows.
• Bitcoin Spot ETFs are making noise and biggest ones like Black Rock, Fidelity are one of most successful ETFs ever. When will those ETFs buy bitcoin to the future supply of Bitcoin that is 1,352,179 more BTC.

skip~

With the picture you have given above, it will be very normal when something is very valuable and widely used for technological development but is difficult to obtain, it will become very expensive, like this picture which shows the price increasing from day to day because demand is increasing, with movement I believe Bitcoin will touch $100k in the next few days.

[tranthidung]

like this picture which shows the price increasing from day to day because demand is increasing, with movement I believe Bitcoin will touch $100k in the next few days.

It is not about price, you misread the chart.
The institutionalization of Bitcoin

Some interesting points from it.

• About 11% of future supply is the % owned by Institutions and Spot ETFs are quickly growing.
• Both Bitcoin and gold make new all time highs but Bitcoin Spot ETFs got massive positive net flows while oppositely Gold ETFs are bleeding with negative net flows. It signals changes in thinking and practice of people, investors on how they store their asset and do investment.

Grayscale continues to be bleeding but yesterday is a green day for Bitcoin.

The fee war continues and because lack of interest from investors, ETFs like Vanguard started to waive their service fee until 31st, 2025.

IMPORTANT UPDATE!

Because we believe in bitcoin so much, starting tomorrow, you can invest in VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) with no fees until March 31st, 2025.*

*During the period commencing on March 12, 2024, and ending on March 31, 2025, the Sponsor will waive the entire Sponsor Fee for the first $1.5 billion of the Trust’s assets. If the Trust’s assets exceed $1.5 billion prior to March 31, 2025, the Sponsor Fee charged on assets over $1.5 billion will be 0.20%. All investors will incur the same Sponsor Fee, which is the weighted average of those fee rates. After March 31, 2025, the Sponsor Fee will be 0.20%.

Learn more: http://vaneck.com/HODL
Prospectus: http://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

[Peter90]

• Both Bitcoin and gold make new all time highs but Bitcoin Spot ETFs got massive positive net flows while oppositely Gold ETFs are bleeding with negative net flows. It signals changes in thinking and practice of people, investors on how they store their asset and do investment.

No. It signals that there is a shortage of gold, so companies that need gold and can't find it on the merket are forced to redeem their ETF shares.

Redempting ETF shares means that shares are exchanged not vs. cash but vs. gold: the shareholders selling their shares don't ask for money but for the gold represented by their shares.

Not everybody can do it, only so-called authorized participants i.e. major ETF shareholders.

[tranthidung]

No. It signals that there is a shortage of gold, so companies that need gold and can't find it on the merket are forced to redeem their ETF shares.

Redempting ETF shares means that shares are exchanged not vs. cash but vs. gold: the shareholders selling their shares don't ask for money but for the gold represented by their shares.

Not everybody can do it, only so-called authorized participants i.e. major ETF shareholders.

It can be a signal of shortage of physical gold, that I doubt of, but it can be signal that gold investors try to redeem their Gold ETF shares and convert it to either cash or other assets that look more promising in their view now, like Bitcoin.

About gold, there are signals from central banks that they are purchasing more and more gold.
Why Central Banks Are Betting Big On Gold.

[tranthidung]

It is a first day ever, a single day net inflow hits $1B.

There is a nice chart for Bitcoin Spot ETF tracker too, from Jim Bianco. In cumulative figure, net inflow of all Bitcoin Spot ETFs just passes $11+B.

Most of trading days, we see green candles for net inflows. The second chart is nearly similar to the first chart but it will make people more FOMOing with buying demands from Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

[Peter90]

It can be a signal of shortage of physical gold, that I doubt of, but it can be signal that gold investors try to redeem their Gold ETF shares and convert it to either cash or other assets that look more promising in their view now, like Bitcoin.

Hi tran
It cannot be a signal that gold investors are selling ETF shares because the price chart shows that gold investors are buying





There is a shortage in gold - in silver even more. Silver is going nickel*
Declining ETF inventories while gold investors are buying signals shortage: ETFs are treated as a source of metal when you can't find metal on the market.

Another signal of the shortage are premiums.
Premiums are always - by definition - a sign of shortage.
Currently gold spot $1160
In Shanghai $1190



$30 premium over spot per ounce
The most important part of this is, unlike New York and London - the two major trading hubs by volume - Shanghai doesn't trade gold derivatives, the SGE (Shanghai Gold Exchange) and the SFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) trade physical.
Shanghai is physical gold, not paper gold, so to speak.
If in Shanghai gold gets traded at 3-4% premium, there is only one reason. Shortage.



* The LME suspended nickel trading at 08:15 am on 8 March 2022, and, at 12:05 pm, cancelled all nickel trades entered that day before the suspension took effect. The total value of the cancelled trades was US$12 billion.
The LME's justification for the suspension and cancellation was that the nickel market had become "disorderly", and participants' exposure posed a systemic risk to the broader market.
Between 4 and 8 March, participants met nearly US$16 billion in margin calls, with the growing perceived risk of some of these participants defaulting and facing insolvency.


...and after this gold digression, now back to BTC spot ETF Tracking!