China's economy is very sick. What to prepare for?

[DrBeer]

....
It is because Chinese government has mastered how to make effective debt trap to discreetly fool third world countries just like what had happened to Sri Lanka because they do have plans and interests that might give them an advantage to their competitors especially militarily.

Exactly, and this "quiet hidden colonization" of third world countries, is far scarier than the days of colonial possessions. As you have noticed - most of the third world countries that got independence never learned to use it, and moreover "got into" even worse history, where you can't get "freedom" anymore. And China, yes, really needs such "debtors", because they need managed "economically dependent colonies" to save their economy, i.e. essentially parasitizing on other countries....

[emmybd]

I think the situation is not that bad either. China's economy is the second position in the world after United States and it is expected that it will take the first position in near future. After COVID-19 pandemic economies all around the world have been hit hard. They haven't fully recovered yet. If overall economies all around the globe pick up, China's economy will also recover.

[0t3p0t]

....
It is because Chinese government has mastered how to make effective debt trap to discreetly fool third world countries just like what had happened to Sri Lanka because they do have plans and interests that might give them an advantage to their competitors especially militarily.

Exactly, and this "quiet hidden colonization" of third world countries, is far scarier than the days of colonial possessions. As you have noticed - most of the third world countries that got independence never learned to use it, and moreover "got into" even worse history, where you can't get "freedom" anymore. And China, yes, really needs such "debtors", because they need managed "economically dependent colonies" to save their economy, i.e. essentially parasitizing on other countries....

Yeah and I do hope that no other countries will fall to this kind of thing ever again and other countries that suffers to that may serve as a lesson to leaders who wants to take risks. But in fairness China's technological innovation is at high level despite being targeted by it's oppositions especially in electronics and other sectors though they do have that advantage but they should have lessen it's agressiveness towards it's neighbors so they don't boycott it's products and stuff.

[DrBeer]

....
It is because Chinese government has mastered how to make effective debt trap to discreetly fool third world countries just like what had happened to Sri Lanka because they do have plans and interests that might give them an advantage to their competitors especially militarily.

Exactly, and this "quiet hidden colonization" of third world countries, is far scarier than the days of colonial possessions. As you have noticed - most of the third world countries that got independence never learned to use it, and moreover "got into" even worse history, where you can't get "freedom" anymore. And China, yes, really needs such "debtors", because they need managed "economically dependent colonies" to save their economy, i.e. essentially parasitizing on other countries....

Yeah and I do hope that no other countries will fall to this kind of thing ever again and other countries that suffers to that may serve as a lesson to leaders who wants to take risks. But in fairness China's technological innovation is at high level despite being targeted by it's oppositions especially in electronics and other sectors though they do have that advantage but they should have lessen it's agressiveness towards it's neighbors so they don't boycott it's products and stuff.

China's technology is a very "thin matter". On the one hand, they produce a lot of technological equipment, from cheap consumer goods to very high quality equipment of corporate standard...but, as always, there is a nuance - it is all built by Western companies, the technology is Western, and critical equipment is Western, however, I repeat once again - as well as investments in production are also Western. That's why China, having played "the great empire" and thinking itself "indispensable" and "untouchable", is now making a "beautiful face at a bad game", trying to somehow improve relations with the West, which it destroyed. China is very afraid of the West's estrangement from China, especially since the West has an alternative option - India.

[bitterguy28]

Maybe this is the reason why they are now more aggressive  in occupying other countries territory specially in Water part making them the most hated country in their region now.

this is also the reason why they wanted to  take control of West China Sea to control the ocean business sector . shame on them.

[DrBeer]

Maybe this is the reason why they are now more aggressive  in occupying other countries territory specially in Water part making them the most hated country in their region now.

this is also the reason why they wanted to  take control of West China Sea to control the ocean business sector . shame on them.

That's right. While everyone was pumping up the hysteria "capitalists are enslaving the world", China was quietly occupying and actually enslaving the region, country by country.... And when yesterday's "cursing the West" realized that they had already become slaves of China, it was already too late.... And from powerlessness and resentment, they, wearing a yoke with the inscription "slave of China" around their necks, continue to pounce on the West, for some reason expecting that it will benefit them.
It is also interesting to observe how quietly, without media publications and international condemnation, not only economic but also physical occupation of other people's territories by China is taking place.....

[DrBeer]

Today, China, for the sake of SAVING its economy, is forced to "listen" to the recommendations of the West, to negotiate, and to exchange some of its "trump cards" for a good attitude of the West. The results of the China-Russia meeting are very indicative in this sense. To be more precise, it was not a meeting, but a "challenge on the carpet" on the part of China, which summoned its raw materials appendage for moralizing, and was forced, on the recommendations of the West, to tell Russia no in areas that can support its international terror. No was said to "Siberia 2", no was said to the supply of products from China, no was said to the unblocking of Russia's funds. No to yuan settlements. Of all the "greatest" treaties were signed to supply ..... topinambour and bone meal (this is not a joke!!!). China is forced to surrender and "sink" its raw material appendages, which behave illegally, in exchange for the survival of its economy, which is flying into a steep dive.
PS This is a good hint to BRICS/BRICS+ - China needs you as long as it benefits from you and as long as you listen to its fairy tales about "dedollarization". If necessary, China will "wipe your feet" and forget about you....

[robelneo]

.. For 2024, the authorities are going to intensify economic propaganda and attract funds from abroad to get out of the critical situation.

China's weakness is the gain of many countries that have stakes in the West Philippine Sea they want to expand their territories because the WPS is rich in oils and they want to explore it on their own without countries that are fighting for a share of the WPS.
People are asking if China is ready to go to war for the sake of that sea dispute I don't think they can do that right now, they are in the rebuilding process of their economy, but they misled nations to think that they are ready to go.

[DrBeer]

.. For 2024, the authorities are going to intensify economic propaganda and attract funds from abroad to get out of the critical situation.

China's weakness is the gain of many countries that have stakes in the West Philippine Sea they want to expand their territories because the WPS is rich in oils and they want to explore it on their own without countries that are fighting for a share of the WPS.
People are asking if China is ready to go to war for the sake of that sea dispute I don't think they can do that right now, they are in the rebuilding process of their economy, but they misled nations to think that they are ready to go.

China has become the toughest and most insidious colonizer today, with a "Napoleon complex".
I regularly read the news in different regions and observe the slow but systematic "absorption" by China of what does not belong to it, and in the most boorish way. Islands, water areas, and much more - this is COLONIZATION, and not as it was before, but with a complete sucking of resources from the "colonies". This concerns both natural resources and entire economies of countries ! But China overestimated its capabilities, its status, and its position in the world economy and politics. And payback has come. But there is a nuance - in the beginning, it is not China itself that will be the first to pay for China's problems, but its "appendages" - who with resources, and who with money from the wallets of their citizens....

[Agbe]

If China that produces things and they have enough of companies and manufacturing companies economy is sick then what will you call the African countries economy that have no any manufacturing companies. Nigerian government only depending on Crude Oil to survive and anything happens to the Crude Oil sector I the country, the economy will not only sick but will die.

[0t3p0t]

If China that produces things and they have enough of companies and manufacturing companies economy is sick then what will you call the African countries economy that have no any manufacturing companies. Nigerian government only depending on Crude Oil to survive and anything happens to the Crude Oil sector I the country, the economy will not only sick but will die.

If it is your country's main source of income I think plan B should be in talks right now as we all know countries nowadays are exploring their own source of resources and if it happens that all countries have sufficient oil reserves to suplly their own needs or new technology like the renewable energy will be stable then your country will be left hanging with only crude oil. African nations are rich in natural resources no doubt about that but the only thing is that maybe insurgents want a portion of it as well.

[DrBeer]

If China that produces things and they have enough of companies and manufacturing companies economy is sick then what will you call the African countries economy that have no any manufacturing companies. Nigerian government only depending on Crude Oil to survive and anything happens to the Crude Oil sector I the country, the economy will not only sick but will die.

The presence of factories, will be effective only if the products of these factories can be realized. The second condition is that it must be a high value-added product, and therefore of high quality. Do you understand what I'm implying? Yes yes - the Chinese economy is "strong" only if its products will be bought by rich countries, with a large market of consumers, with average and higher income. That is why China is now colonizing third world countries, breaking their economies, forcing them to buy Chinese consumer goods, cheap, but a lot and regularly. And if such countries start producing their own goods, the Chinese economy will "deflate before our eyes". That is why China "motivates" local governments to trade resources but not to develop industry and production.

[DrBeer]

A bit about “Chinese Statistics”:

“Historically speaking.
The practice of embellishing the state of the economy has long been ingrained in China, as in many other socialist states. The country has faced accusations of distorting statistics at the state and corporate levels for years.

For example, 20 years ago, Beijing suddenly revised the previous year's GDP growth by 16.8 percentage points. And in 2013, it turned out that in the large city of Henlan, located in one of the country's most developed provinces, Guangdong, industrial production figures were overstated on paper by local officials by almost four times.

Over the course of the U.S.-China trade war, reactions to suspected numbers manipulation have hardened. In late 2020, Washington passed a law banning Chinese companies from listing on U.S. exchanges (U.S. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, HFCAA) unless their accounts can be audited by auditors of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB). According to the new requirements, all companies traded in the U.S. had to provide access to their documents by 2024, otherwise they will be delisted. Translated into the language of money, they may lose their largest source of funding - the U.S. stock market.

In Beijing explained this decision by political pressure and threatened retaliatory measures. But formally the reason for strengthening control was a real problem, namely, the regular deception of investors. Another high-profile case in 2020 was the falsification of reports of the Chinese chain of coffee shops Luckin Coffee, which declared its intention to supplant Starbucks in the United States. As it turned out, the company overstated its figures by more than one and a half times, which ensured its rise on the stock exchange. The victims were American investors who believed it.

Nevertheless, until recently, international business has understood the principles of working with Chinese specifics in order to benefit from both production and presence in the giant domestic market. For example, Tesla CEO Ilon Musk spent a lot of effort already during the trade war to launch the US automaker's first foreign factory in China. The factory, with a production capacity of up to a quarter of a million electric cars a year, opened in early 2020.”

https://lenta.ru/articles/2024/01/03/news-from-china/

Adaptation of an old saying, to the modern situation: There are 4 kinds of lies: simple lies, cynical lies, statistics, and .... Chinese official statistics

UPD: And a perfect example confirming the lies of government statistics: China's GDP “unexpectedly grew” by more than 5 percent. China's state statistics office says the country's economy “got off to a good start,” exceeding expectations of 4.6 percent growth for the quarter. This is fundamentally at odds with the forecasts of the Fitch rating agency and a number of experts.

Why 5% ? And because last year's calculations showed - that the Chinese economy, can “stay afloat” given the problems, only if GDP growth is not less than ..... yes yes yes yes, you guessed it, exactly 5% ! And if the reality is not so, we simply declare that it is exactly as “necessary”.

[DrBeer]

China's attempts to impose its policies are expected to yield results. Surprisingly so

EU companies are seeking to reduce their dependence on China, as Brussels may impose additional duties on goods from China.

This is reported by the Financial Times.

Brussels has launched an investigation into Chinese state subsidies for manufacturing, and the European Commission is expected to unveil further duties on Chinese electric car imports soon.

European customers are increasingly concerned about their dependence on China, especially in non-food retail, a category that includes everything from clothing and appliances to electronics and toys.

“The main trend now is that companies are trying to reduce their dependence on China,” said Richard Laub, CEO of Belgium-based Dragon Sourcing.

Some countries have preemptively started to look at options to diversify demand from the PRC in other directions, for example Europeans in the textile industry have started to work more actively with India, Bangladesh and Vietnam, despite longer lead times and higher costs. The world is changing, and now it will no longer go in the way of “economic terrorists”, among others !

https://www.ft.com/content/fb448978-e4ff-4f3e-b650-13fda73f58a9

[DrBeer]

China seems to have “played the game” seriously, and now, following the real estate market, automobile production may go down as well:

EU imposes “punitive duties” against China by 38%, US by 100% The EU has announced punitive duties on Chinese electric cars: the EU Commission believes that imports from China are damaging the European automotive industry.

Announcing the investigation, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “The prices of these cars are artificially low due to huge government subsidies, this distorts our market.” Whether manufacturers will actually have to pay tariffs of up to 38.1 percent depends on whether another solution can be found with China. The Commission has given China a July 4 deadline to do so. For automakers BYD, Geely and SAIC, the penalty tariffs will be 17.4 percent, 20 percent and 38.1 percent, respectively, according to the Commission. A weighted average rate of 21 percent will be applied to other manufacturers that have shown cooperation in the investigation, while the maximum rate of 38.1 percent will be applied to uncooperative manufacturers. The current duty rate is ten percent. The Brussels-based agency launched an antitrust investigation against China in late 2023 over alleged illegal subsidies for electric vehicles. The Commission has reached a preliminary conclusion that the value chain for battery electric vehicles in China benefits from unfair subsidies, von der Leyen said. As a result, manufacturers in the EU were at risk of being harmed. In May, the U.S. had already imposed special tariffs of 100 percent on imports of electric cars and other goods from China. The U.S. accuses Beijing of distorting competition through heavy state subsidies. German automakers, which make much of their profits in China, have warned against imposing tariffs on car imports from China.