Is Bitcoin network going to get more congested in halving time?

[krishnaverma]

I was reading a post which mentioned that Bitcoin network will get more congested during halving time. This means that Bitcoin transaction fees will again increase by good amount at that time. This can balance the positive impact of halving on Bitcoin prices and can keep the Bitcoin prices in check. So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

[pakhitheboss]

Bitcoin network getting congested does not mean it will get congested at the time of halving. Whenever there is a large number of transactions it gets congested for now the problem is BRC20 tokens. At the time of halving the transactions do get to a situation where congestion happens, it does die down after halving. With the inclusion of the BRC20 token, it might get worse than it was before. Halving never made the transaction fee high as they are now, the network used to get congested but it would not affect a user as it is doing now.

[Charles-Tim]

Nobody can know if bitcoin mempool will become congested during halving. It may get congestion. It may not get congestion. If more people are making bitcoin transaction and if there is increase in BRC20 tokens transactions at the time, expect the mempool to be congested. But if otherwise, expect the mempool to be normal as it is now. Read further.

But we should still know that there is congestion at 20 sat/vbyte even as at now that the mempool fee rate is at 36 sat/vbyte. The fee rate supposed not to be much far away from 1 sat/vbyte. In that sense, yes, it will still be congested at the time BRC20 tokens transactions.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I was reading a post which mentioned that Bitcoin network will get more congested during halving time. This means that Bitcoin transaction fees will again increase by good amount at that time. This can balance the positive impact of halving on Bitcoin prices and can keep the Bitcoin prices in check. So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

There's more possibility on that because it's going to be followed by intensive volatility and at the cause, there may be likely high transactions volume and we may experience as you've said, however, that doesn't mean it must make an indelible change to the market price movement that would have resulted to the market rise in prize, halving will have a lot to unfold on us when it has happened and the market bullrun begins.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I mostly agree with Charles-Tim:

Nobody can know if bitcoin mempool will become congested during halving.

Besides, not much happens in halving time. I think the OP has in mind the bull run that happens after halving, typically between 6 and 18 months later, when the price doesn't stop rising, albeit with some dips. These moments of high volatility tend to push up the mempool's unconfirmed transactions and fees.

[Gurujebs]

I was reading a post which mentioned that Bitcoin network will get more congested during halving time. This means that Bitcoin transaction fees will again increase by good amount at that time. This can balance the positive impact of halving on Bitcoin prices and can keep the Bitcoin prices in check. So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

I have seen some difference this time around, maybe it's as a result of Bitcoin ETF that was price in and ordinals that became the normal thing on the bitcoin network.
Usually, 3 months to halving days, the bitcoin network would have been congested already because price tends to rise a little above some support and you will see everyone complaining about how difficult it is to make a transaction but this time, it happen some months even before the usual time so I'm not sure about that for now.

However, if Bitcoin demand increases some weeks before halving, then expect some mempool junks of transactions waiting to be included in the next block and it will remain like that for a month depend on how excited people become bullish about the the bullrun and more demands for Bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

Nobody can know if bitcoin mempool will become congested during halving. It may get congestion. It may not get congestion. If more people are making bitcoin transaction and if there is increase in BRC20 tokens transactions at the time, expect the mempool to be congested. But if otherwise, expect the mempool to be normal as it is now. Read further.

But we should still know that there is congestion at 20 sat/vbyte even as at now that the mempool fee rate is at 36 sat/vbyte. The fee rate supposed not to be much far away from 1 sat/vbyte. In that sense, yes, it will still be congested at the time BRC20 tokens transactions.

That's not true. You and I may not know, but if whales are planning to play around in April they know now what they will do.

It does not take as much as people think to make fees shoot up to 2-3 btc a block vs the current .4 btc a block.

I am 100% certain we will see this occur sometime soon and fees will go up 2x or 3x.

What is sometime soon by Dec 2024 they will be or have gotten to be well over 1 coin a block

[Altcoin1998$]

I was reading a post which mentioned that Bitcoin network will get more congested during halving time. This means that Bitcoin transaction fees will again increase by good amount at that time. This can balance the positive impact of halving on Bitcoin prices and can keep the Bitcoin prices in check. So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

The idea that congested crowding in Bitcoin transactions is only for Bitcoin halving is not correct as it can happen at any time under any circumstances. Congested crowding can occur when a large whale or holder starts selling bitcoins in the market. You Op might just blame the halving as the reason for falling into such a situation, it wouldn't be right but the probability of getting Bitcoin transaction volume during halving might increase.

[philipma1957]

I was reading a post which mentioned that Bitcoin network will get more congested during halving time. This means that Bitcoin transaction fees will again increase by good amount at that time. This can balance the positive impact of halving on Bitcoin prices and can keep the Bitcoin prices in check. So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

The idea that congested crowding in Bitcoin transactions is only for Bitcoin halving is not correct as it can happen at any time under any circumstances. Congested crowding can occur when a large whale or holder starts selling bitcoins in the market. You Op might just blame the halving as the reason for falling into such a situation, it wouldn't be right but the probability of getting Bitcoin transaction volume during halving might increase.

Every ½ makes it easier to crowd the memory pool.

A large pool that does 48 blocks a day or ⅓ of the blocks can simply downclock to crowd the pool.

then over clock to even out the diff and blocks lost.

ie 7 days of 40 blocks then 7 days of 56 blocks

comes to an average of 48 blocks keeps difficulty even.

once the ½ ing goes to 3.125 coins the underclock is less costly then it is now at 6.25 coins.

we should see more evidence this year and even more in 2028 as the under clock penalty drops again to only 1.5625 coins

[krishnaverma]

I was reading a post which mentioned that Bitcoin network will get more congested during halving time. This means that Bitcoin transaction fees will again increase by good amount at that time. This can balance the positive impact of halving on Bitcoin prices and can keep the Bitcoin prices in check. So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

The idea that congested crowding in Bitcoin transactions is only for Bitcoin halving is not correct as it can happen at any time under any circumstances. Congested crowding can occur when a large whale or holder starts selling bitcoins in the market. You Op might just blame the halving as the reason for falling into such a situation, it wouldn't be right but the probability of getting Bitcoin transaction volume during halving might increase.

Yes or can happen anytime but the question was related to will the probability of congestion increase because of an event like halving. If it does, what will be the further effect on Bitcoin price.

[Yamane_Keto]

There will be a good possibility of congestion because more will buy Bitcoin, given that there is halving FUD will occur ( a golden opportunity to buy more)  and network congestion means more Bitcoin in CEXs and an easier opportunity for manipulation by creating fake orders on CEXs, but I do not think it will last for more than a month, as it It is too early for the price to break the ATH, and the manipulation will be between $48,000 and $55,000.

[dkbit98]

So will Bitcoin prices remain unchanged even after halving because of this?

Bitcoin price changes all the time, but market tops are usually around halving.
Check the chart for previous halving events and you will see much more transactions with increased price.
Than we usually have price crash and transactions continue to increase for some time, resulting in increased blockchain fees.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Well, from the comments I have read in previous month, many people suggest that during the halving period or during bull market, the mempool will be congested and could give rise to high fee. No matter what people's opinion is about these. I am sure that no one can look in the future and know what will happen. I say to myself, "Prepare your mind for what ever comes." No matter how bad it gets, it will definitely pass by after some time too.

[philipma1957]

Well, from the comments I have read in previous month, many people suggest that during the halving period or during bull market, the mempool will be congested and could give rise to high fee. No matter what people's opinion is about these. I am sure that no one can look in the future and know what will happen. I say to myself, "Prepare your mind for what ever comes." No matter how bad it gets, it will definitely pass by after some time too.

I am sorry I disagree. I can pretty much be certain higher fees per block will be the norm as each 1/2 ing happens.

Whether it will be a perfect 1-2 coins a block or a wavering up and down it is pretty much a certainty . just look at 2023 to now we have had the highest fees ever for the most extended period of time.






no time period matches the last 13 months.

this is a natural increasing effect due to 1/2 ings it won't go away

[Z-tight]

A congestion in the network causes a rise in tx fees, after the halving there is usually more demand for BTC, as weaker hands and institutional investors want to get their hands on BTC, this means BTC users will have to outbid one another for a space in a block and it will result in high tx fees.

The congestion could be worse this year, because ordinal spammers have already caused a congestion in the network, now when you add that coming from people who want to buy BTC after the halving, it could be higher than what we have had in the past.