Are you worried about the US Government moving BTC?

[rizqillah]

Personally, I don’t think it’s worth worrying about someone (even the US government) selling a small percentage of the entire issue, it’s actually very little, as they say, it’s a drop in the ocean, it’s another inflated manipulation and as we can see, not particularly successful, since in fact it didn’t harm the entire market, Bitcoin can fall and grow even without such news, and sometimes much more.

Bad news will only have a temporary impact on the market, because after that the market will find its rhythm again. The main factors of price are demand and supply, when bad news is likely demand will decrease due to investor concerns, some will even sell their coins at a loss because of panic. But I don't think this will last long, I believe bitcoin will rise again when demand starts to rise.

[Manna]

BTC is no longer just a new asset in the financial market, BTC has been widely accepted and entered national reserves. Currently, the US holds 207,189 BTC^[1] seized from criminals. At the present time, this amount of BTC is worth about 14B USD, a huge amount of money, making the US government the independent entity holding the most BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy with 193K BTC. And we can consider the US government as a big whale in the market, as each of its actions can create waves for the crypto market.

The US government recently made headlines in the crypto world by transferring 15085 BTC ~ 922M USD. This move coincided with the time BTC reached 60K USD, raising speculation about the US government's profit-taking strategy^[2].

The last time, in July 2023, the US government transferred 9800 BTC ~ 300M USD and then we saw an 18% decline in BTC price from 30K USD to 25K USD^[3]. This time, the community is also worried even though the BTC price has reached 68.5K BTC and is approaching ATH 2021.

Personally, I believe that the US government has a reason to take profits because they do not need to prove diamond hands. Their purpose is just to effectively handle the assets confiscated from criminals. The current price of BTC is attractive enough for them to sell and add to the national budget.

At the same time, I also believe that with the positivity in price fluctuations and the optimism of investor sentiment, this liquidation worth 1B USD from the US government will not cause any negative impact on the increasing momentum of BTC price as well as the crypto market. FTX sold 1B USD worth of GBTC in January^[4] and Genesis is selling 1.3B USD worth of GBTC ^[5] also with no significant impact on BTC price. Therefore, I believe that in the context of the market being extremely excited and the daily BTC trading volume reaching up to 70B USD, the selling force of 1B USD from the US government, if any, is not worth our concern.

I would like to know your views on the possibility of selling 1B USD worth of BTC from the US government:

• Do you think the US government is about to sell 15,085 BTC?
• Will this event have a negative impact on BTC and the entire crypto market?
• Are you worried and changed your investment strategy because of this event?

References:
[1] Countries & Governments that Own Bitcoin
[2] US gov’t moved $922 million of seized Bitcoin after BTC price broke $60,000
[3] US Government Transfers $300 Million Worth of Seized Silk Road Bitcoins
[4] FTX Sold About $1B of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, Explaining Much of Outflow: Sources
[5] Genesis Cleared to Sell GBTC Shares Worth $1.3 Billion
Note:

• My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
• I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
• I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread ^{if necessary}.

Update 2024.04.03:
In a major cryptocurrency move, the U.S. government transferred 30,175 bitcoins (valued at around $2 billion) to a wallet associated with Coinbase.

• U.S. Government Moves $2 Billion in Bitcoin to Coinbase, Impacting Market
  

Your analysis is very relevant and important.  Bitcoin is no longer a new asset;  It is playing a major role in the financial markets and has attracted the attention of various institutions and governments.  The US government currently seizes huge amounts of Bitcoin, making them one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world, even more than the large corporation MicroStrategy.This BTC holding by the US government could have a significant impact on the market.  Because they can be considered a "whale," any move they make—such as selling or transferring these bitcoins—can cause a huge market reaction. This situation could further complicate and affect the future of cryptocurrencies and market dynamics, especially if governments adopt new strategies to manage these assets.

[Gurujebs]

Bad news will only have a temporary impact on the market, because after that the market will find its rhythm again. The main factors of price are demand and supply, when bad news is likely demand will decrease due to investor concerns, some will even sell their coins at a loss because of panic. But I don't think this will last long, I believe bitcoin will rise again when demand starts to rise.

I think some people sell their Bitcoin to mitigate their positions, some of this people that sell Bitcoin don't have choice because they operate with leverage trading which involves some high risk and when Bitcoin move against their predictions, they quick to unload their Bitcoin into the market which cause a quick squash on the market price.

I want to see more demand other this US government thing, if Trump get played again and Kamala get into the office, the Bitcoin price will be screwed and probably get manipulated by the whales again for their own personal gains.

[nakmantu99]

Bad news will only have a temporary impact on the market, because after that the market will find its rhythm again. The main factors of price are demand and supply, when bad news is likely demand will decrease due to investor concerns, some will even sell their coins at a loss because of panic. But I don't think this will last long, I believe bitcoin will rise again when demand starts to rise.

I think some people sell their Bitcoin to mitigate their positions, some of this people that sell Bitcoin don't have choice because they operate with leverage trading which involves some high risk and when Bitcoin move against their predictions, they quick to unload their Bitcoin into the market which cause a quick squash on the market price.

I want to see more demand other this US government thing, if Trump get played again and Kamala get into the office, the Bitcoin price will be screwed and probably get manipulated by the whales again for their own personal gains.

The concern I read from some groups that said kamala harris is not a supporter of crypto, if trump loses and kamala becomes president it will likely affect the price of bitcoin to plummet.
The panic that makes the price of bitcoin plummet even further, because some people sell because they see the market is declining.

[Wiseman]

Personally, I don’t think it’s worth worrying about someone (even the US government) selling a small percentage of the entire issue, it’s actually very little, as they say, it’s a drop in the ocean, it’s another inflated manipulation and as we can see, not particularly successful, since in fact it didn’t harm the entire market, Bitcoin can fall and grow even without such news, and sometimes much more.

Bad news will only have a temporary impact on the market, because after that the market will find its rhythm again. The main factors of price are demand and supply, when bad news is likely demand will decrease due to investor concerns, some will even sell their coins at a loss because of panic. But I don't think this will last long, I believe bitcoin will rise again when demand starts to rise.

The market can be compared to a taut bowstring and when there is no very good news for a very long time, then soon there should be a lot of good news, for now everything is calm, but sooner or later the trend will change and the market will fly up, I think it simply cannot work differently.

[KryptoBull]

Personally, I don’t think it’s worth worrying about someone (even the US government) selling a small percentage of the entire issue, it’s actually very little, as they say, it’s a drop in the ocean, it’s another inflated manipulation and as we can see, not particularly successful, since in fact it didn’t harm the entire market, Bitcoin can fall and grow even without such news, and sometimes much more.

The value of BTC held by governments may be significantly smaller than BTC marketcap but could be nearly equal to the market's actual liquidity. When they sell off BTC, all buy orders are absorbed and BTC price will fall to a lower price range. We've already seen this when the German government sold out 50K BTC and pushed BTC price down to 54K USD.

What's even scarier is that these events of moving BTC in a negative market can trigger fear among retail investors and cause them to sell off their BTC in panic, further driving down BTC price. As a result, the market will turn red and altcoins could lose 50% or even 75% of their value. This is what I worry about whenever I read news about government BTC movements or the Mt.Gox BTC payout event.

[legend45]

Personally, I don’t think it’s worth worrying about someone (even the US government) selling a small percentage of the entire issue, it’s actually very little, as they say, it’s a drop in the ocean, it’s another inflated manipulation and as we can see, not particularly successful, since in fact it didn’t harm the entire market, Bitcoin can fall and grow even without such news, and sometimes much more.

The value of BTC held by governments may be significantly smaller than BTC marketcap but could be nearly equal to the market's actual liquidity. When they sell off BTC, all buy orders are absorbed and BTC price will fall to a lower price range. We've already seen this when the German government sold out 50K BTC and pushed BTC price down to 54K USD.

What's even scarier is that these events of moving BTC in a negative market can trigger fear among retail investors and cause them to sell off their BTC in panic, further driving down BTC price. As a result, the market will turn red and altcoins could lose 50% or even 75% of their value. This is what I worry about whenever I read news about government BTC movements or the Mt.Gox BTC payout event.

Sales of Bitcoin Large Magnitude by the government made Bitcoin experience sharp correction, of course this makes us panic but the lamma who has invested in Bitcoin only while, after knowing the cause they will return to their original plans, do not sell their coins but for them Only the beginning of investing and not yet familiar with Bitcoin will panic and the possibility of selling their Bitcoin losses, this is silly but that's the experience of butch when you get it.

[kulkhan]

Actually i am not worried about US governments statistics about Bitcoin. They are not Selling they are Also buying and holding Bitcoin in this situation. I think it is US governments economic policy. When they (US Government) saw green position and they will saw profit then they can sell his Bitcoin. But they are not selling all Coin.
Even then they are seeing Down market then they are buying Crypto and spatially Bitcoin. So i think there has no any issu for worried at this moment.

[Themepen]

The value of BTC held by governments may be significantly smaller than BTC marketcap but could be nearly equal to the market's actual liquidity. When they sell off BTC, all buy orders are absorbed and BTC price will fall to a lower price range. We've already seen this when the German government sold out 50K BTC and pushed BTC price down to 54K USD.

What's even scarier is that these events of moving BTC in a negative market can trigger fear among retail investors and cause them to sell off their BTC in panic, further driving down BTC price. As a result, the market will turn red and altcoins could lose 50% or even 75% of their value. This is what I worry about whenever I read news about government BTC movements or the Mt.Gox BTC payout event.

I agree with you that it is worrying when governments have a lot of Bitcoin and they may sell it. Even if they do not have much compared to whole market selling it could still cause big problems and make price go down. I also remember when German government sold 50,000 Bitcoins and price dropped to $54,000. That is scary example.

If governments sell their Bitcoins regular investors might get scared and sell theirs too. This could make  price drop even more and cause big problems for whole cryptocurrency market not just Bitcoin. Other cryptocurrencies also lose their value. We need to keep an eye on what governments are doing with their Bitcoins like when they sell or move them because it could have big and bad effects on market.

[Wiseman]

The value of BTC held by governments may be significantly smaller than BTC marketcap but could be nearly equal to the market's actual liquidity. When they sell off BTC, all buy orders are absorbed and BTC price will fall to a lower price range. We've already seen this when the German government sold out 50K BTC and pushed BTC price down to 54K USD.

What's even scarier is that these events of moving BTC in a negative market can trigger fear among retail investors and cause them to sell off their BTC in panic, further driving down BTC price. As a result, the market will turn red and altcoins could lose 50% or even 75% of their value. This is what I worry about whenever I read news about government BTC movements or the Mt.Gox BTC payout event.

I think that fear doesn’t play a big role and there are already a bunch of videos on the internet about it and many people already know that they can’t sell, I think that traders do this when they find out that they are moving a large number of bitcoins and on futures everyone is betting on a decline, thereby pushing the market even harder.

[taufik123]

I think that fear doesn’t play a big role and there are already a bunch of videos on the internet about it and many people already know that they can’t sell, I think that traders do this when they find out that they are moving a large number of bitcoins and on futures everyone is betting on a decline, thereby pushing the market even harder.

There will be more futures traders who bet on the decline, this can even make them more profitable because of the negative news about bitcoin moves or massive bitcoin sales, so it is a good moment to go Short and see how the liquidation occurs on the Long trading position that occurs.

Those who trade in the spot probably won't panic too much if they already know what to expect. It is only necessary to make a repurchase to add assets at a cheaper price, there is no need to panic because after a big decline there will be a big increase and that is for sure.

[Captain Corporate]

Just because the government has these, doesn't mean that they are looking to sell it at all times. Remember, USA is one of the richest nations in the world if not the richest, and they keep on printing new money whenever they want to and they still do not go down, which should tell you all you need to do know about them really. I feel like its quite important information that they can keep that as long as they want, without ever feeling the need to sell it. Even if they do, the market is so big, like trillions of dollars worth of big, that we can always recover from that as long as people are willing to buy more.

[|MINER|]

Just because the government has these, doesn't mean that they are looking to sell it at all times. Remember, USA is one of the richest nations in the world if not the richest, and they keep on printing new money whenever they want to and they still do not go down, which should tell you all you need to do know about them really. I feel like its quite important information that they can keep that as long as they want, without ever feeling the need to sell it. Even if they do, the market is so big, like trillions of dollars worth of big, that we can always recover from that as long as people are willing to buy more.

Actually If I say about my opinion about this topic then I have to say that when whale come for investment or any institute want to come hold bitcoin on the large amount it a worried thing because that time they can manipulate the market some how.
Even the manipulation was not for the long-term but I think a lots of people faced loss in that short period.And there is also a hope and that is the way the US government are moving to bitcoin on the others hand the mores peoples are entering on the bitcoin market and this is the thing it will in the decentralized.

[gunhell16]

In this day and age,age, there is no stopping the Bitcoin adaptations that people around the world can do. Not all corners,corners, but the majority of the country,country, will be recognized and accepted by the governments as an asset that can help the economy of each country and each individual.

Because of the technology that Bitcoin has, it is undeniable that the size of the impact on the technology that we have in this era from usage, features, and opportunity makes Bitcoin good.

[Wiseman]

Those who trade in the spot probably won't panic too much if they already know what to expect. It is only necessary to make a repurchase to add assets at a cheaper price, there is no need to panic because after a big decline there will be a big increase and that is for sure.

Everything is correct and I think so too, but I will tell you that few people trade on futures, many are afraid to trade there and prefer to trade on the spot market, this is mostly due to the fact that people do not understand very well how to trade correctly and many prefer to trade only on the spot market.