Cryptocurrency market analysis with a focus on BTC, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins

[pablobitcobarofficial]

BTC Higher Time Frame (HTF) Analysis
  - Current bullish outlook despite bearish propaganda.
  - Emphasis on a macro range of 59k-73k and a micro range of 66k-71k.
  - Importance of not cherry-picking data points.

BTC Lower Time Frame (LTF) Analysis
  - Long bias at 68.8k, targeting previous highs rather than new highs.

ETH Analysis
  - Weekly SFP not valid; focus on holding above 3500 to remain bullish.
  - Potential LTF setup discussed with flexible invalidation points.

SOL Analysis
  - Interest around 153, despite higher time frame bearishness.
  - Positive outlook on recent price action sweeping the origin of a pump.

PEPE Analysis
  - Discussion on range lows and highs; recommendation to take profits mid-range.

WIF Analysis
  - Holding 2.60 region is crucial; importance of stabilizing after volatility.

BONK Analysis
  - Looks decent with specific price levels for bidding under previous lows.

General BTC Sentiment
  - Acknowledgement of bearish appearance but finding opportunities in scary setups.

Execution Strategy
  - Close out 25-50% of position on SFP in lower time frames even if entered on higher time frames.
  - Emphasis on execution quality and risk management.

Other Coins Analysis
  ONDO: Recommended bidding around 1.27-1.28.
  TON: Good buy around 7.12-7.00.
  TIA: Advised to avoid due to poor performance.
  BNB: Should bounce at current levels; similar outlook for SOL.
  FLOKI: Weak chart after losing prior structure.
  INJ: Potential good setup forming.

[yhiaali3]

Thank you, but analyzing in this short and random way will not benefit traders much.

I mean, it is better to focus on two or three coins at a time, explaining more details, rather than short words that will not help traders in their analysis or making an appropriate decision to buy or sell.

Or you can, for example, make a list of the best currencies that you expect to rise soon in the coming period, and you can set good price areas to enter.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

Crypto Market Update16/06/24


Bitcoin's Current Position

    Bitcoin is at a crucial point that will dictate its short-term direction and influence altcoins.
    A breakout from the multi-month consolidation phase is expected.

Bitcoin's Impact on Altcoins

    Altcoins that have performed well recently may slow down.
    Underperforming altcoins may gain momentum as Bitcoin breaks out.

Technical Analysis and Predictions

    The $60K mark is a significant line of validation.
    Since March 2024, Bitcoin has been in a reaccumulation phase.
    A smaller range within this phase shows deviations and reclaims, indicating potential for a larger move.
    An impulsive move is expected, potentially driving Bitcoin to $100K or higher.

Future Projections

    The initial impulsive move may be followed by a series of increasingly aggressive upward movements.
    The first leg of the move could be around $10K, leading to subsequent legs pushing Bitcoin up to $120K.
    A parabolic advance and a blow-off top are anticipated, similar to the pattern seen in 2017.

Timeframes and Market Structure

    October is estimated as a potential peak period for Bitcoin.
    Corrections and subsequent impulses are expected to speed up.
    The $60K level remains a crucial support, with downside potential limited.

Short-term Movements

    Predictions for a breakout within 7 to 10 days.
    Lower time frame impulses are monitored to indicate the end of the current correction and the start of the next major move.

Risk Management and Trading Strategy

    Importance of managing risk, especially when trading options.
    Advice against inexperienced traders dabbling in options due to high risks.
    Strategies for identifying lower time frame impulses to anticipate market reversals.

Altcoins Performance Relative to Bitcoin

    Altcoins that have performed well over the past 3 to 6 months may experience a slowdown if Bitcoin breaks out from its current consolidation phase.
    Conversely, altcoins that have not been performing well might gain momentum as Bitcoin makes its move.

Conclusion

    Bitcoin is poised for significant growth, but market conditions must be closely monitored.
    Maintaining above $60K is critical for the bullish outlook.
    The market is expected to experience substantial movements, leading to potential highs of over $100K.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

Bitcoin - What's Next?
Sunday Report: All You Need to Know

In our latest Sunday report, we focus on Bitcoin's recent performance and future prospects. Last week, Bitcoin was at $70k, and our analysis predicted a drop to $66k, which has come true. This price point is considered a long-term buy region.
Key Analysis:

    Trend and Movement: Bitcoin's journey from $16k to $70k has been marked by significant sideways movement and corrections. This is a natural part of the market cycle and not indicative of a constant upward trend.
    Critical Levels: The current price range, or "box," has the top between $72-73k and the bottom between $56-57k. Understanding and navigating within this range is crucial.
    EMA50 Indicator: The Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) at the yellow line is pivotal. It lies in the middle of our box, indicating whether the trend is towards the top or bottom.
    Market Makers' Strategy: Movements around $64,400 should be expected as market makers aim to exhaust traders. The key is patience and understanding these planned moves.

Current Market Sentiment:

    Bitcoin is expected to continue sideways movement within the box.
    Breaking above or below the EMA50 will define the smaller ranges of movement.
    Patience is critical as we prepare for a potential breakout leading to a super bull cycle.

In summary, the next steps for Bitcoin involve closely watching the EMA50, understanding the market's planned moves, and preparing for a potential breakout from the current range. Patience and strategic buying at key levels will be essential for navigating this period.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

Market Analysis and Trade Ideas from Haven Group's Pierre: June 2024 Update
Bitcoin's Critical Levels and Trading Strategies
Current Market Sentiment

Pierre, a key analyst from Haven Group, shares his latest insights on Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the current "bounce or rip" scenario. With BTC retesting the $65,000 mark, there's optimism among bulls, but Pierre stresses the need for reclaiming critical levels to ensure further upward movement.
Key Levels and Strategy Adjustments

Pierre highlights the importance of monitoring the H1 chart to identify levels that need to be reclaimed for BTC to maintain its mid-range and aim for a potential retest of $66,500-$67,500. A significant update from Pierre is the adjustment of his hard stop loss (SL) for BTC exposure from $62,800 to $63,500. He believes a break below $64,000 would likely indicate the end for bulls. Pierre notes:

    H1 Chart Analysis: The focus is on reclaiming certain levels to sustain the mid-range and support the long position.
    Stop Loss Adjustment: The SL has been tightened to $63,500, acknowledging the risk of a break below $64,000.
    Manual Intervention: Pierre indicates he would manually cut his position if BTC closes below the mid-range, provided he's at his desk.

Detailed Chart Insights

Pierre acknowledges the complexity of his D1 chart but assures that all critical information is included. He emphasizes the importance of the updated SL strategy, considering his limited availability to monitor the market post-close.

    D1 Chart (BTC/USDT): A comprehensive analysis showcasing long-term trends and critical levels.
    H1 Chart (BTC/USDT): A more immediate focus on shorter-term trends and necessary reclaim levels.

Broader Market Perspective

Pierre extends his analysis beyond BTC, mentioning the broader market's "bounce or rip" condition. He advises traders to have clear exit strategies and to pay attention to lower timeframe (LTF) trends for potential targets.

    Trading Opportunities: Emphasis on playing bounce attempts with clear invalidations.
    Market Health: Noting the degradation of the altcoin market, Pierre hopes for bounces to provide trading opportunities and market relief.

Altcoin Analysis and Specific Trade Ideas
Altcoins in Focus

Pierre shifts attention to altcoins, particularly highlighting Ethereum (ETH) and its potential impact on the market following the SEC's decision to back down on ETH 2.0.

    ETH and ETH Betas: Eyes are on ETH and related altcoins (ENS, PEPE, LDO, PENDLE) to see if the momentum shift can spark a trend retest or new trading opportunities.

Toncoin (TON) Analysis

Pierre also analyzes Toncoin (TON), focusing on its ability to defend its D1 trend and form a lower high.

    TON/USDT Chart (D1): Analysis of TON's potential to hold its daily trend and implications for future movements.

Final Thoughts and Recommendations

Pierre concludes with a reminder to traders to stay disciplined with their plans, especially in the current uncertain market conditions. He advises focusing on D1 trend retests for main targets and monitoring LTF trends for immediate opportunities.
Key Takeaways

    Critical BTC Levels: $64,000 as a pivotal level for bulls.
    Adjusted SL for BTC: Tightened to $63,500.
    Altcoin Market: Potential relief and trading opportunities in ETH and related assets.
    Discipline and Strategy: Importance of clear exit strategies and adherence to trading plans.

For detailed charts and further updates, Pierre directs readers to his analyses on TradingView:

    BTC/USDT D1 Chart
    BTC/USDT H1 Chart
    TON/USDT D1 Chart

[hugeblack]

is this a bot?
Any analyzes without detailed charts or interaction with questions or some discussions will be useless. Many services offer the possibility of obtaining some predictions for free.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

BTC Trend Overview
Key Observations:
H4 Trend Shift: BTC has flipped its H4 trend and rapidly approached the H4 100 MA gap fill.
Critical Levels:
H4 100 MA: Must be broken to target the H4 200 EMA at 64.7k.
Support Level: Must hold the H4 trend and H1 200 EMA if retested at 61.5-62.0k.
Higher Targets: Achieving these conditions sets up a potential retest of the H4 200 EMA and D1 trend.
Holding key support levels is crucial to maintain bullish momentum. The market's ability to avoid dipping to 58-60k is seen as a positive sign for bulls.

Focus for Today:
H4 100 MA: Break and hold this level.
H4 200 EMA: Target if the H4 100 MA is broken.
Support Retests: Ensure the H4 trend holds if retested.
Early-week movements can be tricky, often requiring confirmation post-NYO (New York Open).

ETH Analysis
Key Observations:
H4 100 MA: Needs to flip to support.
H4 200 EMA: Must break this level to confirm a bullish trend.
Similar to BTC, ETH must hold critical support levels to maintain its upward trajectory.

General Market Insights
Trend Reclaims and Gap Fills: Classic strategies involve reclaiming trends and filling gaps, which have been discussed extensively in recent analysis.
Pre-NYO Moves: Pre-Monday NYO moves can be unreliable, so it's important to see how the market settles.

Focus Areas:
H4 100 MA: A critical level for both BTC and ETH.
H4 Trend Support: Holding this level is vital for a bullish outlook.
Market Behavior: Monitor how SPX behavior impacts BTC, as it often serves as an indicator for broader market strength.

Altcoin Watchlist
Weakness: AI coins like FET and WLD, and TIA show notable weakness.
Strength: WIF shows potential for an H4 200 EMA retest, with ENS also standing out.

Trading Strategies:
Above H4 Trend: Potential scalp long targeting H4 100 MA & H4 200 EMA.
Below H4 Trend: Consider swing shorts using D1 trend breaks as invalidation.
Bounce Plays: Focus on D1 downtrend retests as primary targets.

Market Sentiment
Despite BTC's bounce into the D1 13 EMA and breaking the H4 downtrend, many altcoins remain lethargic. It's still early in the week, so trends may still emerge. Keeping an eye on key levels and market behavior will be crucial in navigating the current landscape.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

General Market Overview

First, let's address the overall market sentiment. Bitcoin isn't currently our focus due to potential market fluctuations related to the Mt. Gox distribution. This event may lead to increased selling pressure, affecting Bitcoin's fundamentals for the month. As a result, we believe other cryptocurrencies might perform better in the short term.
Bitcoin Analysis

Despite not being heavily invested in Bitcoin, it's essential to keep an eye on potential buying zones. Here are the key levels to watch on the daily timeframe:

    Around $56,000
    Near the previous lows

If Bitcoin's price approaches these areas, consider taking a calculated risk, which, for us, ranges from 4% to 6% of the trading portfolio.
Trading Strategy and Risk Management

One crucial piece of advice for traders experiencing losses is to stop trading temporarily. If you're down significantly, it's often best to step away from the screen, engage in physical activity, or spend time with friends. This mental reset can prevent further emotional trading and potential losses.

When it comes to managing trades, I follow a simple rule: if the market activity is primarily physical (like physically watching charts), switch to a mental activity (like reading). This balance helps maintain clarity and avoid burnout.
Altcoin Focus: Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL)
Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum hasn't shown strong bullish signs recently. We exited our positions around bearish retests, as the price action didn't confirm a trend change. It's crucial to differentiate between different trade setups, and currently, ETH hasn't provided a convincing buy signal.
Solana (SOL)

Solana, on the other hand, might offer some immediate trading opportunities. On lower timeframes (like the 4-hour chart), current price levels could be a good entry point. The recent sharp decline in Solana's price suggests a potential overreaction, which might be an opportunity for a bounce. Look for a target around $145, with a stop loss set below the recent lows to manage risk effectively.
Hedging and Spot Positions

Hedging spot positions with short trades can be a viable strategy. However, my approach is straightforward: if Bitcoin loses its weekly market structure, I plan to exit all positions. This simplicity helps in managing trades without overcomplicating the decision-making process.
Market Psychology and Patience

During slow market downturns, there's no set time frame to wait before looking for long positions. Instead, focus on market reactions, especially on lower timeframes, to gauge buying pressure. Look for candle patterns and wicks indicating buyers stepping in, which can signal a potential entry point.
Conclusion

The crypto market is currently in a state of flux, with Bitcoin facing potential selling pressure and altcoins showing mixed signals. It's essential to stay vigilant, manage risk, and avoid emotional trading. Always look for signs of buyer interest and adjust your strategies accordingly.

Stay tuned for more updates, and remember to keep your trading approach balanced and well-informed. Happy trading!

[pablobitcobarofficial]

Spot Position Update

I've decided to cash out 70% of my spot positions. I'm not planning to build up the same kind of long-term spot holdings anymore. The plan is to liquidate these positions, pay the necessary taxes, and move on. I'll keep 30% of the holdings just in case there's an unexpected supercycle, but I'm not counting on it.

Most of my future earnings will come from trading over the next two years. This will be more of a bonus rather than the main focus.
Market Update and Personal Insights

As of now, unless prices are exceptionally good, I'm not too interested in expanding my spot positions. My focus is shifting towards short-term derivatives trading when the market turns.

These pullback periods are fantastic for traders who are prepared. Sometimes, being prepared means recognizing that it’s better not to take mediocre trades in a challenging market.

Historically, I've been more profitable with long positions. While my hit rates for long and short trades are similar, the average return on long positions is significantly higher. My losses also tend to be larger with shorts. This pattern suggests that prioritizing long trades is more effective for my trading style. After 7 years and two full market cycles, I'm confident in this approach.

I'm planning to buy more towards mid to late July. I want to observe the impact of the Mt. Gox distribution in real-time and see how prices react at key support levels.
Trading Wisdom

"The key to winning is playing good defense."

    Protect Your Capital:
        Without capital, you can't trade. Without trading, you can't win. It's that simple.
        The biggest mistake new traders make (and many experienced ones) is focusing on potential profits before considering possible losses. You must reverse this thinking and always consider your potential loss first.

    Knowing When to Stop:
        Many talented traders don't know when to stop. They might have access to better charts, faster execution, and other advantages, but the real edge comes from objective and rigid risk management, often enforced by trading firms.
        If you're trading independently, set a daily stop limit. Once you hit this limit, stop trading for the day. Take a break the next day, and return with a clear head to avoid revenge trading.

I've experienced both sides—starting as a part-time trader while working a 9-to-5 job and now trading professionally. This perspective has taught me the importance of disciplined risk management."

    Tom Dante

Educational Insight: The Importance of Risk Management in Trading

Understanding risk management is crucial for both new and experienced traders. It's not just about maximizing profits but also about minimizing losses. Here are some educational pointers on effective risk management:

    Set Stop Losses: Always use stop losses to protect your capital. This helps you limit potential losses and manage your risk effectively.

    Position Sizing: Don’t put all your capital into a single trade. Diversify your positions to spread out the risk.

    Risk-Reward Ratio: Evaluate the potential reward of a trade against the possible risk. A common rule is to aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.

    Keep Emotions in Check: Trading can be emotional, but it’s important to stick to your strategy and not let fear or greed dictate your decisions.

By implementing these strategies, traders can better navigate the market's ups and downs, ensuring long-term success and stability in their trading careers.

[akeemqaz]

I think SOL is more undervalued than other coins here, although they are all undervalued. This is just my opinion, based on the rate at which the SOL ecosystem is booming.

[hugeblack]

If you continue in this way, your account will be banned quickly.
for the bot developer, please stop spamming.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

SPX (S&P 500 Index):
In my previous update, I anticipated a longer trading range for SPX, but it broke out to a new high much sooner than expected. Last week, we were at the range low, and I advised against shorting SPX at that time. Although I didn't foresee such a quick rise, the range high became a support level, invalidating my initial expectation.
Currently, SPX has lost its daily upward trend for the first time in a while, and the trend has turned downward. Next week will be crucial to see if SPX can reclaim its daily trend or if it will face resistance. Right now, it's holding at the 4-hour EMA200, and we should watch for a potential bounce, especially around the 5600 level in the next two weeks.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qcRsDGoC/

BTC (Bitcoin):
Last time, I predicted a possible range of 40-52k for BTC, and it slightly missed that target. We managed to enter a long position during a 1-hour compression last week. I prefer focusing on lower timeframe entries, so the macro outlook for BTC isn't as critical. We're now looking at whether BTC will fail between the current level and 72k again or break through it, potentially leading to a significant rally.
The daily compression isn't tight yet, so a scenario like this chart link is possible. The next higher low on a higher timeframe (HTF) could be a great buying opportunity. If BTC breaks 72k, the potential for opportunities will be vast, even without the perfect entry.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EOM4twUV/

ETH (Ethereum):
With BTC performing well, we're interested in how ETH can outperform BTC, focusing on the ETH/BTC pair. ETH/BTC is currently at a critical support level with a large gap below. Despite underperforming in the recent rally, ETH hasn't seen the severe retracements of the past. Now would be an excellent time for ETH to show strength, sitting on a horizontal level above a big gap and the daily MA100 ascending.
If the daily compression works out, the next significant resistance is at 0.605, which is 16% higher. If BTC pumps 10-15% and ETH outperforms by 16%, it would be substantial. It's a critical level to defend, and it might be a good time to rotate from BTC to ETH, although recent attempts haven't been very successful.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/336twMyI/

Gold:
Gold is still consolidating, making higher highs. After four months of consolidation, a big move is expected. While I'm bullish, I don't rule out a sudden drop, similar to the one before the Gaza conflict in September 2023. If such a drop happens, targeting around 2200 (near the daily EMA200) would be an excellent entry point. Overall, I'm very bullish but cautious of potential market tricks.

TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin):
We've stayed within the highlighted range. If ETH/BTC breaks out as mentioned earlier, the target would be around $1.7 trillion.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3im3zy53/

TOTAL3 (Total Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum):
Despite the altcoin meltdown, TOTAL3 filled a gap and bounced back with significant momentum, aided by strong performances from Solana and meme coins. It looks even more bullish than BTC or TOTAL2, despite a series of lower lows and highs.

DXY:Squiggly line had started well, and that first correct leg was good confluence for being bearish/flat during the altcoin meltdown and now buying the dip too early on BTC. Remember when people started to buy the dip at 66k in June? Many of them are the people who puked at the lows (if only it was only Germany!) averaging down too early can be fatal, we use a trend based system so buying in a downtrend is a big no, sure we never catch the pico bottom (went long at 57k, and yet this is still much better than people averaging down from 66k mid-June). So yeah while DXY ended up ranging, that first DXY pump I called ended up extremely useful. We're back to the mid-range, but still over 3D EMA200, and that rounded bottom shape isn't invalidated yet. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yTkYhPZ0/ But I'd say time for a move soon. For once I find EURUSD a bit cleaner so I'll include that too - I know what it looks like, bearish at the lows and bullish at the top. But nah not really the level where I mark as BELOW is giga bearish is a great buy if we get it. We're wanna be worried if we lose it. The main point with these two levels to break or hold is that I don't think the current range in-between is for trading. Unless we get a clean bullish setup between 1.075 and 1.078 like the squiggly within the range I think that would be a good long too.

DXY (US Dollar Index):
The initial upward move in DXY was helpful for predicting the altcoin meltdown and the subsequent BTC dip buying. We're back to mid-range, but still above the 3D EMA200, and the rounded bottom shape isn't invalidated. A move is expected soon.

For EUR/USD, it appears cleaner than DXY. While the range between 1.075 and 1.078 isn't ideal for trading, a bullish setup within this range could be a good long opportunity.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/s1o9HnHH/

Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate these critical levels and market movements.

[bounceback]

SOL Analysis
  - Interest around 153, despite higher time frame bearishness.
  - Positive outlook on recent price action sweeping the origin of a pump.

Its my interested altcoin since dropping under $122 last several days ago but bit disappointed after take stop loss and failed buy back around $155 before Sol coins pumping to $184. I don't know how much profitable earn for braveness investor buy back Solana coin when price crashing almost $122 and looking with recently price of Solana success break out until $184.
Seems over or not with Solana price hit again above $200 near future or will get correction any more behind Solana still can't stable for long term keep in the higher price.
I focus with Solana coins only and think have faster moving up and down than other your recommended coins, wish all we can earn much profitable depend our favorite coins for trading.

[ZAINmalik75]

Its my interested altcoin since dropping under $122 last several days ago but bit disappointed after take stop loss and failed buy back around $155 before Sol coins pumping to $184. I don't know how much profitable earn for braveness investor buy back Solana coin when price crashing almost $122 and looking with recently price of Solana success break out until $184.
Seems over or not with Solana price hit again above $200 near future or will get correction any more behind Solana still can't stable for long term keep in the higher price.
I focus with Solana coins only and think have faster moving up and down than other your recommended coins, wish all we can earn much profitable depend our favorite coins for trading.

It's okay to be in such a situation because we cannot always trade according to our plans therefore if you fail to buy back and miss the chance to make a profit then it's time to move on and don't regret on missing the single chance. There will be more chance to make profit in future. You have to stop focusing on one coin also you must give interest to other coins too.

Because investing in one coin makes it difficult to make a profit. You should do diversification which will make your profit from one coin even if you are losing from another coin. The profit can cover your loss. Sometimes we have to leave our favorite coins because it's not profitable anymore but SOL is the best choice there.

[bitterguy28]

Thank you, but analyzing in this short and random way will not benefit traders much.

I mean, it is better to focus on two or three coins at a time, explaining more details, rather than short words that will not help traders in their analysis or making an appropriate decision to buy or sell.

analysis are done carefully often with help of not one but as many tools as possible there are technical analyses and there are fundamental ones together you can use them to maximize the profit you can get from trading so short words are not enough to make a trading strategy imo

Or you can, for example, make a list of the best currencies that you expect to rise soon in the coming period, and you can set good price areas to enter.

most likely traders will just choose from the list of crypto and focus on that but if there is someone who wants to focus on all then already it might not be the best idea