Cryptocurrency market analysis with a focus on BTC, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins

[Cech1337]

Great breakdown on the current market conditions!

BTC Analysis:

The bullish outlook on higher time frames is noted, despite the bearish chatter. The range of 59k-73k macro and 66k-71k micro seems solid. It’s crucial to avoid cherry-picking data and consider the broader context.
For lower time frames, a long bias at 68.8k targeting previous highs seems reasonable, though keeping an eye on broader trends is key.
ETH:

Noted that the weekly SFP isn’t valid and the focus should be on holding above 3500. The flexible LTF setup is smart, adapting to market changes.
SOL:

Despite some bearish signals on higher time frames, interest around 153 and recent price action looks promising. The positive outlook on the recent pump is encouraging.
PEPE:

Taking profits mid-range makes sense, especially given the range analysis. It’s good to see recommendations on managing positions effectively.
WIF:

Holding the 2.60 region is crucial for stabilizing after recent volatility. Monitoring this level closely will be important.
BONK:

Bidding under previous lows looks decent. Watching these specific price levels should help in making strategic moves.
General BTC Sentiment:

Acknowledging the bearish appearance while finding opportunities in what might seem like risky setups shows a balanced approach. Execution strategy to close 25-50% of positions on lower time frame SFPs is a good risk management practice.
Other Coins:

ONDO and TON look like good buy opportunities at the specified levels. Avoiding TIA seems prudent based on its performance. BNB and SOL appear to have potential bounce-back scenarios, while FLOKI’s chart weakness suggests caution. INJ showing a potential good setup is worth monitoring.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

Let's talk about where we are in the current cryptocurrency market cycle. Things have been a bit different this time compared to previous cycles. What we're seeing now is a long period of consolidation—basically, the market isn't moving much, and it might feel a bit boring. But this doesn't necessarily mean that we're at the peak or that the market is done growing. Historically, these quiet phases have often been just pauses before the market continues to climb.

When we look at Bitcoin, we can see that these low-volatility periods, where prices don't change much, usually happen during an overall upward trend. Big market tops, where prices peak before falling, are often accompanied by strong emotions like euphoria or panic. Right now, we're not seeing those extreme emotions, so it’s unlikely that we're at a major market top.

ALTCOIN vs. BITCOIN CYCLES:
Many altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) have already gone through a full downtrend, even though Bitcoin itself hasn’t dropped much. This disconnect might be because institutional investors and ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) are keeping Bitcoin stable, while altcoins have suffered more. This could mean that the altcoin market is in a different cycle than Bitcoin, and it might be better to focus on newer, more promising assets.

When Will the Market Move Again?:
If you're wondering when the excitement will return to the market, it might be closer to the upcoming elections. Larger investors usually drive big market moves, and they might be waiting for more certainty before they act. Factors like the end of summer, political decisions, and the resolution of some ongoing issues (like Mt. Gox repayments) could trigger more activity. Once one big player starts investing, others might follow quickly, leading to a surge in market activity.

Should You Keep Trading?:
These slow periods can be tough for traders because it feels like nothing is happening. But remember, the market can change quickly. Even though things might seem slow now, being patient and staying involved can pay off when the market picks up again.

[pablobitcobarofficial]

1. Market Resistance and Current Trends: The market has recently encountered resistance at the H1 200 EMA and the H1 trend line. The first retest of these levels saw a failure to reclaim, indicating potential weakness in Bitcoin's price action. As a result, the market slipped back below the D1 trend and into previous local ranges, suggesting we might see more choppy or consolidative price action in the near term.

2. Trade Ideas for SOL/USDT: A long position of 85% was entered with the expectation of a bullish move, but the market failed to hold key levels. Specifically, SOL/USDT lost the H4 trend, leading to a stop-out at 149. The loss of the 150/152 level further confirms this weakness. However, if BTC can reclaim the H1 200 EMA, it might support a recovery for SOL/USDT. Conversely, a failure to hold these levels could lead to continued downward pressure.

3. Key Levels to Watch: For BTC, the 61/62k zone is crucial. Reclaiming this area could signal the end of the current downturn, but failing to do so could push prices back down to the 57/58k support level. The H4 100 MA and H4 200 EMA are also critical levels that could guide the next moves in the market.

4. Latest Updates and Considerations: Recent price action has been volatile, with the market failing to maintain momentum for continuation after a few days of upward movement. This volatility suggests we could be back to the choppy price action seen throughout most of August. Key areas like 61/62k remain essential for determining the market's next direction.

5. Potential Trading Strategy for AAVE/USDT: AAVE/USDT is currently in a wait-and-see mode. The H4 trend has flipped to resistance, and the H4 100 MA has been defended. A break above the H4 trend could indicate a local bottom and present a potential long opportunity, with the main target being a retest of recent highs. However, if the H4 trend continues to act as resistance, traders might look for a short opportunity down to the H4 200 EMA.

6. Conclusion: The market remains in a critical zone, with key levels like 61/62k on BTC playing a pivotal role in determining the next move. For SOL/USDT, the current position is flat after the stop-out, and traders should be cautious until clearer signals emerge. As always, managing risk and watching for key breaks or holds is essential.


7. Requests: Entry area hit for those watching PENDLE, similar for SEI, POPCAT, TAO, FLOKI shared yesterday.
For those who asked for them and might went for these ideas: must hold and pray BTC at least chops.
TradingView Charts:

    PENDLE/USDT - D1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/pMEbyVrs/
    SEI/USDT - D1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/BxgJusxF/
    POPCAT/USDT - D1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/X9oMPFUo/
    TAO/USDT - D1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tq1KtMnk/
    FLOKI/USDT - D1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/cZ9JUXaH/


Keep these insights in mind as you navigate the market, and stay prepared for whatever the charts might reveal next!