Is trading all about luck?

[famososMuertos]

Saying that "if you know what you are doing, then it is not about luck" is a bit of a cheap shot, because even professionals who spent decades in the markets could make mistakes, its just natural, and sometimes you think you have a shot and you take and you turn out to be right. Even people who obsessed over some trades, and turned out right and made billions? Those people were still lucky, because things could have gone any way. The best thing to realize is that, while knowing what to do is %90 of the job, saying that luck plays zero role would be unfair and it would be very logical to assume that everyone needs a little luck on their side at all times.

Luck is a statistical measure that can be classified in negative values, in fact it is colloquially known as bad luck, oops, nothing profound here.

If we start there, we are in serious trouble, any activity depends on disorder, but in the majority of activities these facts are statistically calculable, in other words if you do not achieve success it is not due to bad luck and if you achieve success it is thanks to good luck.

Luck is called variance, or is it volatility,?, do you know the difference between variance and volatility?   

[snowpega]

<snip>

hmm, dear, you raised good points, which I also agree with. We all know that no one can time the market so accurately or 100% accurately, right? so luck somehow matters in this way what do you think? on the same side one who has insufficient knowledge about the crypto space and just try to generate profit from the market, then this is such a strong fact that he/ she is doing gambling without zero knowledge and totally based on the luck.

But if one who has good knowledge about the market sentiments and has good experience in the crypto space, the scene will be different for him or her. Do you agree with this or not? as i would like to know your opinion on this, Must share your opinion.

[bayu7adi]

<snip>

hmm, dear, you raised good points, which I also agree with. We all know that no one can time the market so accurately or 100% accurately, right? so luck somehow matters in this way what do you think? on the same side one who has insufficient knowledge about the crypto space and just try to generate profit from the market, then this is such a strong fact that he/ she is doing gambling without zero knowledge and totally based on the luck.

But if one who has good knowledge about the market sentiments and has good experience in the crypto space, the scene will be different for him or her. Do you agree with this or not? as i would like to know your opinion on this, Must share your opinion.

Apart from luck, manipulation and early access to the movements of big investors is one of the main conditions for being able to recognize the market better... we will more easily get profits when we are always updated about the movements of big people at an earlier time.
For people who do not have all the information, including analysis,... it is nothing but gambling to force our luck to be there... and for people who know about the movements of whales to start manipulating early, it is no longer luck, but an action profitable.

[|MINER|]

Luck does seem like the main factor in making a profit from Cryptocurrency, but you need to know, not all luck can be obtained easily. Trading requires time and energy to analyze price movements of the coin you want to buy. Unless we are whales who have unlimited money, we can buy coins without having to make too many considerations. In contrast to gambling, which in my opinion has a higher risk, when we guess wrongly about coin price movements, all the capital we use will be liquidated and lost instantly.

I will divide people's luck into two parts in this case like- 1. "One type of luck it depends only on your luck" 2. "Secondly I will say that luck in this case brings success only when there is hardwork or skill". And trading is like the description number two, you will have good luck in trading only when you are skillful and hardworking will give time. Otherwise I will call trading depending on luck without skill as anything but gambling and that will lead you towards failure.

[SmartGold01]

<snip>

hmm, dear, you raised good points, which I also agree with. We all know that no one can time the market so accurately or 100% accurately, right? so luck somehow matters in this way what do you think? on the same side one who has insufficient knowledge about the crypto space and just try to generate profit from the market, then this is such a strong fact that he/ she is doing gambling without zero knowledge and totally based on the luck.

But if one who has good knowledge about the market sentiments and has good experience in the crypto space, the scene will be different for him or her. Do you agree with this or not? as i would like to know your opinion on this, Must share your opinion.

Apart from luck, manipulation and early access to the movements of big investors is one of the main conditions for being able to recognize the market better... we will more easily get profits when we are always updated about the movements of big people at an earlier time.
For people who do not have all the information, including analysis,... it is nothing but gambling to force our luck to be there... and for people who know about the movements of whales to start manipulating early, it is no longer luck, but an action profitable.

Yeah you are right.. those who knows about the movement of the whales and follows them correctly can actually make good profits where it turns to gambling because when you follow and do the same then it's sure that one would make profits after their manipulation. Anyone who does this can make it for long time.

[UNIVERSE]

Apart from luck, manipulation and early access to the movements of big investors is one of the main conditions for being able to recognize the market better... we will more easily get profits when we are always updated about the movements of big people at an earlier time.
For people who do not have all the information, including analysis,... it is nothing but gambling to force our luck to be there... and for people who know about the movements of whales to start manipulating early, it is no longer luck, but an action profitable.

Yes, the factor of whales has a big role in crypto. The can shake the market because they have the power to do it. That's why they can make the manipulation in crypto market. Sure, we must know their movement and we must update the information about them. If we do something against their movement, we may get losses. For example when the whales want to dump the market, we don't target to sell our coins but we are preparing to buy coins. We sometimes must adjust our plan with the possibility of the movement of whales.

[|MINER|]

Yes, the factor of whales has a big role in crypto. The can shake the market because they have the power to do it. That's why they can make the manipulation in crypto market. Sure, we must know their movement and we must update the information about them. If we do something against their movement, we may get losses. For example when the whales want to dump the market, we don't target to sell our coins but we are preparing to buy coins. We sometimes must adjust our plan with the possibility of the movement of whales.

This is also an opportunity for smart traders to gain profit. Because whales cannot maintain market manipulation all the time, the effect of whales on the market is very short and then the market moves forward again at its own pace. So for this reason many traders follow the activity of whales in order to complete trades according to their activity and take proper advantage of their market manipulation. Although not all traders will be able to do this because analysis is required to understand the activity of these whales or how their activity will impact the market, not possible for a normal trader. For this, the trader must have knowledge about technical analysis.

[taufik123]

-snip-
Although not all traders will be able to do this because analysis is required to understand the activity of these whales or how their activity will impact the market, not possible for a normal trader. For this, the trader must have knowledge about technical analysis.

Technical and fundamental analysis is also very important, all the latest news about crypto will match the technicalities that are carried out, everything seems to go hand in hand so that the trend will change by fundamentals.

Whales may be manipulating but it is only temporary.
Following the whales' movements will help us get caught up in a downtrend, the whales' move is a warning.

[Jamal Aezaz]

Yes, the factor of whales has a big role in crypto. The can shake the market because they have the power to do it. That's why they can make the manipulation in crypto market. Sure, we must know their movement and we must update the information about them. If we do something against their movement, we may get losses. For example when the whales want to dump the market, we don't target to sell our coins but we are preparing to buy coins. We sometimes must adjust our plan with the possibility of the movement of whales.

They have the power because they don't make small traders but they always choose to trade on a large scale with the buying and selling of which the value of the whole market changes. But these changes are not forever because they can decrease the value of all the coins so they can also change the price to enhance by buying at a huge percentage.

We should move according to the fluctuations taking place in the market and should not be scared when we see a huge dip in the worth because this is all for the entrance into the market and in similar condition whales will also buy different coins and the market can go higher so do the same as conditions are going.

[milewilda]

-snip-
Although not all traders will be able to do this because analysis is required to understand the activity of these whales or how their activity will impact the market, not possible for a normal trader. For this, the trader must have knowledge about technical analysis.

Technical and fundamental analysis is also very important, all the latest news about crypto will match the technicalities that are carried out, everything seems to go hand in hand so that the trend will change by fundamentals.

Whales may be manipulating but it is only temporary.
Following the whales' movements will help us get caught up in a downtrend, the whales' move is a warning.

On the moment that you would really be setting up your foot into this space then it would really be that something that will really be able to realize on how crucial on to know
those analysis specially technical and additional with those fundamentals on which these things would really be that relevant for you to know so that you could
be able to make yourself that survive into this volatile and unpredictable space. You cant just that make yourself that trade and be profitable on just
relying on luck on which we know that this isnt gambling in the first place. Although its risky but you could be having that kind of approach on which
you could really be having that advantage.

[|MINER|]

Technical and fundamental analysis is also very important, all the latest news about crypto will match the technicalities that are carried out, everything seems to go hand in hand so that the trend will change by fundamentals.

Whales may be manipulating but it is only temporary.
Following the whales' movements will help us get caught up in a downtrend, the whales' move is a warning.

You are right that technical analysis and fundamental analysis are both very important for trading. The more these two analysis skills, the more profit he can get from trading. What I meant in my previous post is that even those newbies who don't know technical analysis can follow the DCA method and earn profits by investing in bitcoin if they have some basic knowledge.
And in case following whale movement tracking  can be more dangerous if the trader have not the wise brain. Because the way whales want to manipulate the market, in this case it is possible to use this power to against them for gaining profit by trading. But in this case danger and risk are very high.

[Gurujebs]

Sometimes I wonder if trading is about luck because a fellow said she has luck on a single trade and made fortune out of it, this now occurred to me to raise this topic because I know that trading is not something that works with possibility unlike gambling that works as luck.

Most time I do realized that those saying about luck is not actually luck in trading rather the luck comes when they invested in a random coin/token out there and possibly the token gain much attention over the media which made the price to surge above what they initially invested, so they decides to sell to have a good cash out at this point they would term it as someone who traded and make profits from it.

When you prepare too well, nothing beats yourl again in the game and that is what trading is about. When you combine technical and fundamental analysis together, the next thing you look upto is expectation of your call but sometimes the way market react is different and where you expect to get 10% on a trade, you can get 50% sometimes, that's how I see trading.

Equally, it's not every call you make that will give you what you want, in a day if you predict 10 trades with expectations of going up, 9 may give you the expectation but in a situation where market isn't that too healthy, you will probably earn nothing much. This wins is the way I see trading as luck often.

[ajiz138]

When you prepare too well, nothing beats yourl again in the game and that is what trading is about. When you combine technical and fundamental analysis together, the next thing you look upto is expectation of your call but sometimes the way market react is different and where you expect to get 10% on a trade, you can get 50% sometimes, that's how I see trading.

Equally, it's not every call you make that will give you what you want, in a day if you predict 10 trades with expectations of going up, 9 may give you the expectation but in a situation where market isn't that too healthy, you will probably earn nothing much. This wins is the way I see trading as luck often.

Knowledge is the main thing, but we also cannot separate it from luck. For example, when we have analyzed well, whether technical or fundamental, then market sentiment says differently, that is also something related to luck in my opinion, because at the beginning we did well, but the market didn't.

But here the main point is knowledge, because for me when our knowledge is very good in analyzing, then luck will also come to us.

[JunaidAzizi]

I do not agree with that at all. Luck is like when you predict something that may go a certain way, and you have zero knowledge about it. I call it luck. But a person who has deep knowledge about any cryptocurrency, does analysis before entering the market, and makes decisions about buying or selling is not relying on luck, bro. This is trading. Those people who have zero knowledge and are unable or lack the capability to understand can spread rumors that trading is all about luck. Don't listen to these kinds of people, focus on your own goals and trust your skills.

[alltalk]

Knowledge is the main thing, but we also cannot separate it from luck. For example, when we have analyzed well, whether technical or fundamental, then market sentiment says differently, that is also something related to luck in my opinion, because at the beginning we did well, but the market didn't.

But here the main point is knowledge, because for me when our knowledge is very good in analyzing, then luck will also come to us.

Of course, knowledge is the most crucial thing in trading. But it is true that sometimes the luck factor may bring an impact for the success in trading. However, it is impossible to have luck if we don't know to trade in the right way. This requires good knowledge to trade in the right way.

Yep, we need to analyze and do research in trading. If we have no sufficient knowledge, we can't do analysis or research. If we have no ability to do it, we can trade with the best way. How we can get luck if we are unable to trade in the right way.