Although I do not think - As I hope - that the price will not fall to 40K$, but it is a possibility. In such a case, if I am sure that the price will fall, I prefer to sell at the current price in the spot market and then wait for the decline in order to buy at a lower price.
I do not prefer short selling in futures because I simply do not like trading futures because I think it is too risky so I prefer to sell spot and wait for the drop to buy from below.
if i have to make it sound moderately maybe around $51k. that's sort of a drop for the market to be oversold. its doesn't sound so bad if you have sold recently when the signal was received. the sentiment change will probably make people panic imo, which means those guys will keep dumping to minimize the loss if it really goers to worse.
for the few of saw the price dive coming and switched to futures, it must be worth satisfying.
German government dumps 50, 000 BTC and MtGox users to receive 143,000 BTC which are likely to be sold cheaper.
i can only assume German government is about to buy back the coins the Mtgoxc users are going to sell for cheap price.