Why the Bitcoin price will be MUCH HIGHER in this cycle!

[NotATether]

So we are now at the point were people get scared when the price goes to $50k or $60k, even though just 3 years ago, everyone was very bearish for that point.

Understandable, but today I'm going to tell you why the bitocin price can get even higher than this in 2025 if not earlier.

You see, it all starts with this graph:



Now, what do you notice here? The multiplication factors for the last 3 halving cycles were:

54x
13x
7x

The jump between the first and second factor is a decrease by about 75%, while a 50% decrease happened between the second and third halving.

Now that the fourth halving has taken place, if we follow this trend, we are going to see about a 25% decrease in the price increases.

Or: 7 * (100%-25%) = 7 * 75% or about a 4-5x increase in the price.

Think about it.

Bitcoin is sitting at $60k right now.

So that means the price between now and 2028 will literally finish between $240k and $300k.

[target]

Every Bitcoin holder I think are all hopeful the price would go up. When they say $1M will be its price, the more it make sense for them to hold.

I think people are scared because it takes 4 years for this cycle and then its already going back bear market while they still expect price tk hit more than $100k. What if it don't?

For a new investors who hasn't been in bear market, its scary also.

[KingsDen]

So that means the price between now and 2028 will literally finish between $240k and $300k.

It's always scary when there is such crazy bitcoin price predictions as above. I know 2028 is a long way to go and many things can happen before then. But I am not optimistic at all. Before I will think of bitcoin hitting $240k to $300k, it must first be able to hit $100k. Me and you know that there'll actually be some selling pressure when bitcoin hits $100k and that pressure might impede further upwards movement.

To me, the market will remain scary and unhappy till after the US elections, then I'll know the next move. Things are changing in bitcoin to the extent that historical data has began to fail.

[SmartGold01]

To me, the market will remain scary and unhappy till after the US elections, then I'll know the next move. Things are changing in bitcoin to the extent that historical data has began to fail.

well sincerely speaking I don't see anything much change so easily in the bitcoin historical data if not for this year that we achieved ATH before halving and you an I knows that the changes was a results of ETF, and apart from this I didn't any much effects within the space. Talking of US election, though I am also optimistic that something positive would happened only if Donald Trump emerges as winner since he has made lot of promises to space.

[Roseline492]

Every Bitcoin holder I think are all hopeful the price would go up. When they say $1M will be its price, the more it make sense for them to hold.

I think people are scared because it takes 4 years for this cycle and then its already going back bear market while they still expect price tk hit more than $100k. What if it don't?

For a new investors who hasn't been in bear market, its scary also.

You are right but considering the fact that this is not the first time Bitcoin price is moving this way after halving i see no reason why people should get all worked up about it, for the fact that Bitcoin is the most influential coin among every other coins doesn't mean that it will always be bullish all the time and even in our normal investment at times it go through some difficult times but that doesn't mean it will not appreciate overtime.

So for me i think we shouldn't dwell on the current situation of Bitcoin now because we are very confident the price will peak again, I no that most people especially the new ones will be very confused if they had made the right decision by choosing to invest on Bitcoin but I'm very hopeful that with time we will see our Bitcoin investment with a smile on our face.

[Lucius]

I always looked more at the difference between the two ATHs, and between the penultimate and last one the difference was about x3.5 ($20k - $69k). If we take that into account, then the price increase should be a bit smaller, but even if it is only 2-3 times compared to the last ATH, we are talking about a price from $140k to $200k, which is impressive in any case.

However, I think that one should not expect that the bull run will continue until the next halving, but that perhaps a new bear market will begin at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. Of course, all the above is under the assumption that the cycles will take place as it was the case in the past.

[jeraldskie11]

Nice calculation, and I really believe that the numbers stated above will happen. We have to consider also what happened to the price of Bitcoin before halving, if we noticed in the previous halving, ATH occurred only after the halving while the in this halving year the ATH happened before halving. We see how excited the small and big investors to make the price higher as expected, this only means that many of us this time that are waiting for this. I know that even the smart money have no control of this, they can only manipulate the price but can't control the overall market. Not only us can benefit of this, but also them.

[Captain Corporate]

I mean we already "know" this, of course not everyone believes in this, but a lto of people believe that this will happen and there is nothing wrong with that at all. I believe that it is not going to be something that will be all that complicated, because bull run is bull run and there is nothing different on this one. If you look at previous bull runs as well then you are going to end up seeing that we have seen drops on those as well and its only the natural part of it. Imagine this period (or any other drop) like drawing an arrow back on a bow, the further you draw it back the further you can shoot that arrow, and right now we are having these drops you are going to end up with getting much better result in the end. So focus on what you can do and eventually you are going to end up doing much better and get a greater result, we just need to wait.

[Rruchi man]

Think about it.

Bitcoin is sitting at $60k right now.

So that means the price between now and 2028 will literally finish between $240k and $300k.

It is a possible estimate of what the value of bitcoins will be by then. In the next couple of months, I expect the value to drop, which will create a scare in the market but will be in fact an opportunity for people to buy more bitcoin because, after the serious dip, the rise in the value will be massive enough to break the former high price that bitcoin has set.

By 2028, 240k and 300k are possible figures.

[KingsDen]

To me, the market will remain scary and unhappy till after the US elections, then I'll know the next move. Things are changing in bitcoin to the extent that historical data has began to fail.

well sincerely speaking I don't see anything much change so easily in the bitcoin historical data if not for this year that we achieved ATH before halving and you an I knows that the changes was a results of ETF, and apart from this I didn't any much effects within the space. Talking of US election, though I am also optimistic that something positive would happened only if Donald Trump emerges as winner since he has made lot of promises to space.

It might appear that nothing much had actually changed in Bitcoin but in reality, the effect of any little change is enormous. We all acknowledged the effect of the ETF approval which is indeed positive because it made us see a new ATH high before halving. Although, we can also see change in the bitcoin price movement, unlike how it used to be in the past. I can say that not everyone predicted the sudden downward movement of bitcoin.

[NotATether]

So that means the price between now and 2028 will literally finish between $240k and $300k.

It's always scary when there is such crazy bitcoin price predictions as above. I know 2028 is a long way to go and many things can happen before then. But I am not optimistic at all. Before I will think of bitcoin hitting $240k to $300k, it must first be able to hit $100k. Me and you know that there'll actually be some selling pressure when bitcoin hits $100k and that pressure might impede further upwards movement.

Why not?

Selling pressure happens in every bull cycle, it's nothing new, I'm not saying that there aren't going to be dips - of course there will be - but I'm just saying that Bitcoin is massively undervalued right now, and when more people buy it, then the price will get closer to what it's intrinsic value is supposed to be (which we won't know until everyone who wants to buy Bitcoin, has bought it).

[Captain Corporate]

I agree, just because we have seen some small drop doesn't mean that we are going to not see bitcoin price go up. Its just only natural that the price will be quite high and we need to end up with something much better if we trust the price. All in all, we need to remember that life isn't all that simple, and we can't always make it work all that easily, so we should just focus on what we can do with what we have. If we can manage that, then we are going to end up with a much better result without a doubt. Don't lose your hope, and try to keep that belief in bitcoin that it will go up and you will be fine. Without having any other bigger drop, I believe that we are going to start being higher and higher with time and there won't be anything that could get that much worse on the long run.

[pieppiep]

I agree, just because we have seen some small drop doesn't mean that we are going to not see bitcoin price go up. Its just only natural that the price will be quite high and we need to end up with something much better if we trust the price. All in all, we need to remember that life isn't all that simple, and we can't always make it work all that easily, so we should just focus on what we can do with what we have. If we can manage that, then we are going to end up with a much better result without a doubt. Don't lose your hope, and try to keep that belief in bitcoin that it will go up and you will be fine. Without having any other bigger drop, I believe that we are going to start being higher and higher with time and there won't be anything that could get that much worse on the long run.

Living to become rich does require quite a long process. Just like when you look at the price of Bitcoin, which is currently still cheap, this digital currency also requires a process to have a very expensive price. Currently, Bitcoin still has some supply that is locked and can still be mined. When the Bitcoin supply has run out and everything has been mined, you can be sure that the price of Bitcoin will always rise higher than it is now.

[hugeblack]

Bitcoin is sitting at $60k right now.

So that means the price between now and 2028 will literally finish between $240k and $300k.

I do not think that this is accurate. The percentage is calculated from the highest ATH for the previous cycle, which represents 69k, and the percentage will most likely be between 2.5 to 3, which means 175k to 210k, but in most cases it will be less than 180k in the best of circumstances.


Generally @ImThour (bitcointalk forum UID 2775128) and @dragonvslinux (bitcointalk forum UID 1170966) have in-depth analyzes about this topic, I advise you to read them.

[Stompix]

54x
13x
7x

The jump between the first and second factor is a decrease by about 75%, while a 50% decrease happened between the second and third halving.

You do realize that for this pattern to be correct we will have a zero decrease between the fourth and fifth halving and then an incremental increase?  Meaning that by 2080 we will be at around 10000x increase per cycle?

A better pattern would be a direct value increase,
so 12>651>8602>69 000 which would point to ~155 000