Your analysis is generally correct but the million dollar question, do you think the need for Layer-2 guarantees that it will be a certain one that will rise especially with the presence of many projects such as MATIC, ARB, OP, BLAST, LRC, DYDX, IMX, MNT, etc.
Let's assume that investments will flow into Layer-2, it is still a group of tokens that may not all rise and investing in them may not be profitable on average. I can bet on which of these tokens will succeed and then I can consider it a good source to provide more liquidity to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum.