Q3 2024 market trend

[Findingnemo]

It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?

Bearish or bullish?

Feel free to take wild shots, cause that's what the speculations are about.

[Stompix]

It's all about the rate cuts
- the fed keeps the rates, it's going to be a bloodbath
- 25 points cut we might get back to the upper sixty on the day of news
- 50 points, might trigger a bearish signal the economy is slowing down and that might again be bad

[rdluffy]

It's all about the rate cuts
- the fed keeps the rates, it's going to be a bloodbath
- 25 points cut we might get back to the upper sixty on the day of news
- 50 points, might trigger a bearish signal the economy is slowing down and that might again be bad

It seems that BTC is very dependent on rate cuts indeed
There's plenty of good news for BTC, there's interest, ETFs, bullish signs, but there's something holding the price back and that could be it

However, without too much analysis, the months of October and the rest of the year look promising for BTC if history repeats itself, so even with this gradual decline since the ATH, I'm still confident that we're close to another ATH, no bear market for now

[hugeblack]

The real impact of Halving may start to appear at the end of October and until then the Fed's decisions will have a short-term impact, so I do not expect any change during Q3 and everything that happens will affect Q4, either the price will be between $50,000 and $70,000 or the price will be above $80,000.

[TomPluz]

It seems that BTC is very dependent on rate cuts indeed. There's plenty of good news for BTC, there's interest, ETFs, bullish signs, but there's something holding the price back and that could be it. However, without too much analysis, the month of October and the rest of the year look promising for BTC if history repeats itself...

I am really wondering why the price movement and direction is now dependent on how the FED will be doing with the interest rate...is it because this is the barometer of the US economy, that is if there will be no cuts it can mean there will some form of a recession and if there is one then retail and institutional investors will be flocking away from BTC? Hope there can come a time when BTC will decouple from the things happening in USA but seems to me this is just a wish list as the USA remains to be the biggest market where Bitcoin is openly recognized asset especially with the approved ETFs they have. In other words, Bitcoin is going where the USA economy is headed...for now!


 

[hugeblack]

I am really wondering why the price movement and direction is now dependent on how the FED will be doing with the interest rate.

The Fed's decision will be one of the main factors, and the reason for that is that the interest rate is inversely related to liquidity, and the higher it is, the less liquidity and the more difficult it is to access loans, and thus less money for investment.

[dragononcrypto]

Given price is already down -11% from quarter open of $62.6K I'll stick to the bearish prediction for the rest of the month, that of failing to reclaim the Q3 open for the close.

Overall I was always sceptical of the ETF pump to $70K+ earlier in the year, and believed it was unsustainable, and since then there has been no continued "gold rush" of money coming into Bitcoin since Bitcoin topped out at $60b of ETF holdings in March. Holdings have struggled to move higher and are now dropping back below $50b for the fourth time in past 6 months, which reflects the sideways/bearish sentiment in the market. Maybe Q4 will be the recovery after further downside, but so far Q3 doesn't look great from many angles.

I know many point to fed rates, broader market sentiment, etc, as reasoning, but personally I only ever anticipated sideways/downside for many months after the unsustainable dead cat bounce style run to new ATHs. This was done with little to no consolidation on the way up to make it a sustainable move (apart from around $25K-$30K range). Granted I thought a correction might come sooner, after a few months as opposed to half a year, but I think we will otherwise see a continued correction to $40K levels and 200 WMA if price can't consolidate the increased valuation.

I otherwise think the first few months of sideways price action has turned into a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows, so more of the same means further down basically.

[Asiska02]

It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?

Bearish or bullish?

I think we’ve experienced the bearish part of the market longer than the expected time period we all thought it was going to last, so at this point in the year, I will only say that the market should come to a bullish end of the year in this Q4. I am still optimistic of the market and not giving up that the bearish trend of the market will move till next year early, at the slightest possible time, anything can happen, so I think bitcoin can make it to the bullish trend this year. If it doesn’t, we move our hope till early next year until what we anticipate for is achieved.

[Sim_card]

It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?

Bearish or bullish?

I think we’ve experienced the bearish part of the market longer than the expected time period we all thought it was going to last, so at this point in the year, I will only say that the market should come to a bullish end of the year in this Q4. I am still optimistic of the market and not giving up that the bearish trend of the market will move till next year early, at the slightest possible time, anything can happen, so I think bitcoin can make it to the bullish trend this year. If it doesn’t, we move our hope till early next year until what we anticipate for is achieved.

The price of bitcoin is now at 56k just a little upside and this is good news because i thought that the price will go dipper than what we saw recently at 52k but since the price has started moving uptrend maybe we might see the price of bitcoin at 60k this month. The consolidation period is getting long.

[Captain Corporate]

We can definitely consider this period to have a potential to get a lot higher. We are getting closer to Q4 and its looking like we can do much better in the future. I know that we are going to see something changing because it can't keep staying low like this for a long time. We know that it can't be something that keep getting lower and lower, which is why I believe that its going to be something higher. I know that it will take a while, but at the end of the day its going to go higher. We should definitely consider this to be higher, and we can definitely see price increasing so it should be something much better.

[LogitechMouse]

It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?

Bearish or bullish?

Feel free to take wild shots, cause that's what the speculations are about.

The market will end up a bearish one this month, and then it will be bullish the whole 4th quarter.
Of course, this is just a speculation like what others are doing.

Just by looking at the history, you will see that Bitcoin's return for the month of September is a negative one on average, and you will also see that the month of September is the most bearish of the three. While the 3rd quarter will end up as a bearish one, I also believe that the final quarter will be a bullish one especially now that many are expecting for the bull market to happen next year, there will be some investors who will take the opportunity to buy Bitcoin during the final 3 months of the year.

My advice to all is that, now that Bitcoin is still on a bearish month, I believe that it's a good time to buy Bitcoin and other altcoins still.

[hugeblack]

My advice to all is that, now that Bitcoin is still on a bearish month, I believe that it's a good time to buy Bitcoin and other altcoins still.

+1
Altcoins follow Bitcoin in price, so if it is a bearish month, it is better to buy Bitcoin as the correction for altcoins will not be big and will appear next month. It is true that historical data indicates a decline, but it is relative and within 10% or less, so we are still above ~ $48,000 levels.

[Ricardo11]

The real impact of Halving may start to appear at the end of October and until then the Fed's decisions will have a short-term impact, so I do not expect any change during Q3 and everything that happens will affect Q4, either the price will be between $50,000 and $70,000 or the price will be above $80,000.

Yes we can expect something good in Q4, which may have a positive effect towards the end of October. Or hope to see something really good in November. Price is still below 60K, we can't expect anything good soon, it will take more time.

[Lucius]

When it seems that the price of BTC depends on whether there will be cut rates in the US (and JP has confirmed that this is almost a sure thing) and after that who will be the next president, it seems that we should all look exclusively in the US.

Obviously, nobody cares that the ECB cut interest rates (again), because it seems that there is not much interest in Bitcoin in the EU.

As anticipated, the ECB reduced its interest rates on Thursday afternoon during its September meeting.
New interest rates have been set at 3.65% for main refinancing operations, 3.90% for the marginal lending facility, and 3.50% for the deposit facility..."The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points.

[Stompix]

I am really wondering why the price movement and direction is now dependent on how the FED will be doing with the interest rate...is it because this is the barometer of the US economy, that is if there will be no cuts it can mean there will some form of a recession and if there is one then retail and institutional investors will be flocking away from BTC?

Investors always think of risks versus returns, that's why high rates cut into inflation, less spending when you earn more with money sitting in the bank, you need higher risks to gain more, so this cool the economy.

Hope there can come a time when BTC will decouple from the things happening in USA but seems to me this is just a wish list as the USA remains to be the biggest market where Bitcoin is openly recognized asset especially with the approved ETFs they have. In other words, Bitcoin is going where the USA economy is headed...for now!

Bitcoin is either money or an investment, it can't live in a void that is unaffected by the biggest economy in the world, that would be completely abnormal, you can't have an asset gaining in value like nothing is happening while the world economy goes in recession.