Will OTC selling push Bitcoin's price lower?

[dragononcrypto]

So based on the below chart from CryptoQuant (published in CoinTelegraph) the number of bitcoins available via OTC is at the highest levels since May 2022, and otherwise similar to March 2021 top.



Personally I had no idea that BTC amount via OTC had been increasing over recent months, and to me this explains why price has been sideways consolidation / correction to the downside. Overall, 200K Bitcoin is no small amount for whales to be offloading here and lines up with the lack of increase in price since May most notably. Per The Block, the number of Bitcoins held in ETFs has increased approximately 100K since then, so without an equivalent amount of Bitcoin bought via spot market and being held, price was always going to struggle and therefore decline (even if not dramatically).

The trend does otherwise look worrying like early 2021 initial bull market top which is concerning, given the number of coins available via OTC is similar May 2021. While there is clearly room for another push to the upside, similar to 2021 with a secondary top slightly higher, Bitcoin via OTC will need to come down significantly to allow for further price increase by the looks of it. Or otherwise much higher investment into ETFs, which is currently lacking.

What are your thoughts? Is this potentially the signs of a local top similar to 2021, or is this just a sign or the beginning of the bull market similar to 2020?

[Lucius]

It seems to me that the majority have very high expectations from BTC considering that we are in the halving year, but also that some investors are very careful and try to calculate with all the possible risks that exist or appear, which can affect the global market.

The war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, very serious situations in some African countries, uncertainty about who will be the next US president, extreme weather events around the world caused by drastic climate change are just some of the things that can affect the price of BTC considering that has become part of the global market.

As for the OTC market, I don't think that there should be any major problems, because such sales are definitely better for the price because they happen in the background - and maybe what is visible now is the result of some whales preparing for a new bull run and they want to sell some BTC without affecting the price too much.

The key thing is whether there will be a strong enough pressure on demand in the following months, given that retail customers have not yet received a clear signal that the bull run is starting.

+1

[MrSpasybo]

Personally I had no idea that BTC amount via OTC had been increasing over recent months, and to me this explains why price has been sideways consolidation / correction to the downside. Overall, 200K Bitcoin is no small amount for whales to be offloading here and lines up with the lack of increase in price since May most notably. Per The Block, the number of Bitcoins held in ETFs has increased approximately 100K since then, so without an equivalent amount of Bitcoin bought via spot market and being held, price was always going to struggle and therefore decline (even if not dramatically).

The trend does otherwise look worrying like early 2021 initial bull market top which is concerning, given the number of coins available via OTC is similar May 2021. While there is clearly room for another push to the upside, similar to 2021 with a secondary top slightly higher, Bitcoin via OTC will need to come down significantly to allow for further price increase by the looks of it. Or otherwise much higher investment into ETFs, which is currently lacking.

What are your thoughts? Is this potentially the signs of a local top similar to 2021, or is this just a sign or the beginning of the bull market similar to 2020?

OTC data can be referenced to gauge OTC trading activity, but it's challenging to formulate a suitable investment strategy based solely on this. These data points yield varying signals depending on the market stage, making it more prudent to assess the broader market first and then utilize OTC data to corroborate our predictions.

Currently, I believe we're on the cusp of a robust bullrun, and the current fluctuations in the OTC market are indicative of the market's readiness for imminent growth. I'll continue to anticipate BTC reaching $150K-$170K during this bullrun rather than a premature reversal that could disappoint investors.