BTC new order.

[KingsDen]

The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I won't hesitate to agree with you bud, except something different comes up later on, but currently, seems like indeed, we have a new order.

 I remember that not too long ego, I created a thread on this forum where I asked the community here that, "what if the bull run we all are looking forward to is already behind us?" that is, what if the bull run came (during the approval of the bitcoin spot ETF)  and gone, and right now, we are in another (supposedly) bear season?.
Alot of users after reading disagreed with me stating that the bull run is ahead.

Past history of bull runs shows that the price of bitcoin usually starts rising at the beginning or towards the end of October, and right now, we have not seen anything of such, today is 9th of October and I agree we still have time.
So, I suggest we wait till the end of this month to see if there will be any UPs in price that suggests a bull run is with us.

But if by the end of this month, market prices remain at their current level or go lower, then that is not a good sign and its indeed possible that things have changed completely.

[Lucius]

I would not agree that some things should be viewed strictly from a technical point of view, because past events should not be something that we will be guided by in the future, but they should be only one factor that can help us see the bigger picture.

Accordingly, October does not have to be special because it was before, and everything that happens in the world and according to some affects the price of BTC is only proof that it has become part of the global market that reacts to such events.

For me, BTC is in a very good position, for those who think differently, let them go back 2-3 years and say that today is not better than then. Historically, Bitcoin has achieved incredible success from 2009 to today, and the problem is that people always want more and faster.

[MrSpasybo]

I won't hesitate to agree with you bud, except something different comes up later on, but currently, seems like indeed, we have a new order.

 I remember that not too long ego, I created a thread on this forum where I asked the community here that, "what if the bull run we all are looking forward to is already behind us?" that is, what if the bull run came (during the approval of the bitcoin spot ETF)  and gone, and right now, we are in another (supposedly) bear season?.
Alot of users after reading disagreed with me stating that the bull run is ahead.

Past history of bull runs shows that the price of bitcoin usually starts rising at the beginning or towards the end of October, and right now, we have not seen anything of such, today is 9th of October and I agree we still have time.
So, I suggest we wait till the end of this month to see if there will be any UPs in price that suggests a bull run is with us.

But if by the end of this month, market prices remain at their current level or go lower, then that is not a good sign and its indeed possible that things have changed completely.

I remain bullish on market growth over the next 6-12 months, as history tends to repeat itself until it's replaced by a new narrative. We've already seen earlier success in this cycle compared to previous ones: ATH before the Halving and BTC Spot ETF approval attracting billions from traditional investors.

I don't deny the possibility of a crypto winter having started, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario right now. Let's continue to monitor the market and discuss further. I'm still targeting a $150K-170K price zone for BTC in this bullrun.

[Captain Corporate]

How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen. This isn't going to be simple, we are going to end up with a lot of trouble in the future but at the moment we are not seeing any bad results and can't say that the order is broken yet. If things change and the next six months isn't some bull run then we can say the order is broken and its not the same, but we can't say it now, first we need to see whats going on to make sure we know whats happening and if its broken.

[Stompix]

Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history.

TA has always been misleading, even with traditional markets!
You can't expect the price to follow certain indicators just as you can't expect the world to go through the same pattern over and over again!
The world already has a fresh example of the limitation of TA when no model was able to see oil at a negative price, yet people still cling to those like they've grabbed Jesus by his foot.

How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen.

And it will keep on happening every single 4-year interval from now till the world ends, right? 

[electronicash]

How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen. This isn't going to be simple, we are going to end up with a lot of trouble in the future but at the moment we are not seeing any bad results and can't say that the order is broken yet. If things change and the next six months isn't some bull run then we can say the order is broken and its not the same, but we can't say it now, first we need to see whats going on to make sure we know whats happening and if its broken.

october isn't done yet in short. the old cycle could style happen.

but i can understand what OP is saying. its only BTC that had its bull run this year. it achieved its ATH and the altcoins are left out. we don't know it yet what could happen in the next few months or years but something big will happen because off the geopolitics going on.

whether supercycle will happen or its over and BTC failed to be adopted. all we know for sure is that online transactions is the future whether the world accepts crypto or we remain to stay the digital fiat we are yet to find out because the direction of whats happening is that the wars keeps going on.

[Zed0X]

Have your own TA and let others follow their own strategy, they will learn the hard way. The real traders understands there can be other factors that affects the market other than their chart indicators that's why they have stop-losses.

~ Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market.

Yeah, I think nobody is disputing this.

[KingsDen]

Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history.

TA has always been misleading, even with traditional markets!
You can't expect the price to follow certain indicators just as you can't expect the world to go through the same pattern over and over again!
The world already has a fresh example of the limitation of TA when no model was able to see oil at a negative price, yet people still cling to those like they've grabbed Jesus by his foot.

Humans find islr difficult to assimilate changes. Once it worked once, twice and three times, it will work for eternity. For new norm to be established, the new will work more than twice before it will be trusted.

How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen.

And it will keep on happening every single 4-year interval from now till the world ends, right? 

It will keep happening, and even when it doesn't happen, we will pretend it has happened or hope it will happen.

[_act_]

The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.

I do not think the history to repeat itself will not occur again. We see all-time high early because of the United States bitcoin ETF that was approved. But that does not mean that bitcoin will not still get to all-time high and that does not means that 2026 is not going to be the beginning of bear market.

Also do not just use a month to use history to analyse the market. If you are doing that, you can be disappointed. Go for long term analysis.

[Asiska02]

A lot have really changed in this cycle and that is why bitcoin has become very hard to predict or be able to tell where the price is leading to actually. If we’re to base most of the happenings now on previous historical data, then this time around there’s a total change in everything and we should not be viewing the market on that aspect again.

Reaching the All time high before halving took place signifies a total shift in the market structure and direction, so we should expect that many things will not be the way it use to be. Both fundamental and technical aspects still occur in the market but we should not base anything now on past historical data, it has failed on that aspect, so we should begin to have a new view of the market and predict base on current trajectory of the market.

[NotATether]

When I read this title, I thought you were talking about a BTC New World Order. I don't know what to feel now

$60K is likely the support for Bitcoin now, so you don't have to worry about prices going down even more now that all of the ugly events of the world are out of the way.

A lot have really changed in this cycle and that is why bitcoin has become very hard to predict or be able to tell where the price is leading to actually. If we’re to base most of the happenings now on previous historical data, then this time around there’s a total change in everything and we should not be viewing the market on that aspect again.

Nobody is a wizard. People can't even predict the bitcoin price with high confidence.

[0t3p0t]

Maybe we are all here for a different speculations and sometimes our strategy will hit our guess and sometimes it isn't same with other investors. New order or not we'll find ways to see our startegy is getting more and more near to accurate even sometimes it was just luck.

[Faisal2202]

The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.

I can't agree more with you as currently the overall markets are going with the news and fundamental factors like the ones you mentioned. If Iran Bombs Israel, then a big war might start, and that might be bad for overall markets. Trump is playing with the market to get some votes (by playing, I mean manipulating crypto users).

Overall it's just a game in which one thing either get affected or on the other side it get used by another player. But in short, BTC will stay in the market, these are small temporary goosebumps that we should not care (if we are holding strong).

[bitterguy28]

The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.

i still think technical analysis can help especially when you are trading 1m, 1h, or 1 day patterns are still effective and holds significant potential for future gains but i agree that if we look at the bigger picture we might not have the same timeline anymore bitcoin has grown a lot these past few years and it is expected that it will not be as volatile as it used to be and it will not grow as much as it did back then when it was just $100 or less

Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.

i think both fundamental and technical analyses can be used both still just don’t completely depend on one kind of analysis and instead use multiple and various methods and tools