We now have the US presidential election results and a new lower interest rate from FED. Everything seems very positive for the overall economy and the crypto market in particular. Unfortunately, only BTC has seen a positive impact, while most altcoins have yet to meet investor expectations in the market.
BTC Dom has climbed nearly 60%, meaning BTC's market cap now accounts for 60% of the total crypto market cap. This figure is lower than BTC dominance during previous halving years (2016 and 2020) but has sparked significant concerns among altcoin investors. Currently, BTC price has recovered and entered a growth phase, while most altcoins have yet to return to their fair value range, with many still at their bottoms and continuing to make new lows.
Some analysts attribute this to the successful launch of spot BTC ETFs, which has diverted capital into BTC rather than altcoins as seen in the past. Alternatively, it could be argued that altcoins have yet to establish a clear and widely understood value proposition. While Bitcoin has solidified its position as "digital gold," Ethereum's role as either "digital oil" or a "decentralized Amazon" remains uncertain, and the same ambiguity exists for coins like BNB and SOL.
However, I have a different take on this. I think we've reached saturation point in the altcoin market. With hundreds of L1 and L2 blockchains, thousands of DeFi, GameFi, and NFT projects, the competition is overwhelming for investors. Scams are also driving investors away in droves. A market purge is necessary so that weak projects can either disappear or at least fall off investors' radars. Only the truly promising projects will survive and thrive with concentrated funding.
Given this, the current altcoin stagnation and delayed altseason are not only necessary but might be orchestrated by market whales. BTC will likely continue its solo rally while most altcoins will only see significant gains once BTC stabilizes at a higher price point, say $100K. This means we probably won't see an altseason in 2024. All eyes should be in 2025, which is likely to be a more volatile year.
I would like to know your opinion on this issue:
- Are you holding altcoins? Which?
- Do you think a purge is underway in the market?
- Do you intend to sell altcoins to focus on BTC investment?
Note:- My opinion has been presented in a topic, on BitcoinTalk forum.
- This topic on AltcoinsTalks forum has included a minor change in the way my opinion is presented.
- This statement is to avoid accusations of plagiarism.