Elliott wave: BTC could soon hit $100K in Wave 4-5

[MrSpasybo]

I’m sharing some simple technical analysis for discussion purposes only. This is not investment advice. Your profits or losses are your own responsibility.

In this topic, I will present my way of counting Elliott waves to identify the upcoming local top of BTC. Each Elliott wave researcher and practitioner will have their own way of counting, and each counting method has its own basis and weaknesses. I hope to receive feedback from traders who use the Elliott method. For those traders who do not use this method, please feel free to refer to it if you find it interesting or useful.

1. BTC has broken the downtrend from the end of 2021, and I consider the start of the impulse wave to be late November 2022. Wave 0-1 extended until April 2023.

2. The duration of Wave 1-2 is not shorter than the duration of Wave 0-1, therefore Wave 1-2 ended in August 2023.

3. Using ExFibo, I determined that Wave 2-3 = 1.618 Wave 0-1. Wave 2-3 ended in March 2024.

4. The duration of Wave 3-4 is not shorter than the duration of Wave 2-3, therefore Wave 3-4 ends in September 2024.

5. The most important thing right now: predicting Wave 4-5.
Wave 2-3 was larger than Wave 0-1 so there is no limitation for Wave 4-5. I can list some cases that we can follow:

a) Wave 4-5 = Wave 0-1 => BTC may form a local top at ~$103K.
b) Wave 4-5 = Wave 2-3 = 1.618 Wave 0-1 => BTC may form a local top at ~$155K.
c) Wave 4-5 = 1.618 Wave 2-3 = 2.618 Wave 0-1 => BTC may form a local top at ~$295K.

I expect BTC to pause its uptrend after breaking $100K and reaching $103K in December 2024, then consolidate and shift money flows to ALTs, triggering an altseason. The $150K-170K target could be reached in Q4 2025, giving us a year to continue investing in multiple big trends and achieve returns commensurate with our confidence in crypto.

I'm eager to get your perspectives on the current market conditions and your predictions for the future.

[KryptoBull]

I expect BTC to pause its uptrend after breaking $100K and reaching $103K in December 2024, then consolidate and shift money flows to ALTs, triggering an altseason. The $150K-170K target could be reached in Q4 2025, giving us a year to continue investing in multiple big trends and achieve returns commensurate with our confidence in crypto.

Thank you for sharing this perspective. I've been following some similar Elliott Wave predictions but usually don't understand why they determine the waves in the way they count. You've pointed it out quite clearly so I can understand a bit more to follow along better. I don't have much knowledge about technical analysis, so I'll start taking partial profits as soon as BTC reaches the target.

I also hope we can see BTC reach 100K USD in Q4, followed by a gentle correction and sideways movement of BTC, which could be a good opportunity for many altcoins to increase in price after accumulating for so long throughout 2023 and 2024.

[MrSpasybo]

Thank you for sharing this perspective. I've been following some similar Elliott Wave predictions but usually don't understand why they determine the waves in the way they count. You've pointed it out quite clearly so I can understand a bit more to follow along better. I don't have much knowledge about technical analysis, so I'll start taking partial profits as soon as BTC reaches the target.

I also hope we can see BTC reach 100K USD in Q4, followed by a gentle correction and sideways movement of BTC, which could be a good opportunity for many altcoins to increase in price after accumulating for so long throughout 2023 and 2024.

Everyone has different ways of counting, and each way of counting has its own criteria that may or may not fully align with Elliott Wave theory. I find Elliott Wave to be an overly flexible method, and analysts can always find multiple ways to count that support their personal beliefs. The problem with this is that it's not easy to determine which count is the most accurate and should be prioritized in market analysis.

Currently, I still believe that the $100K zone will be the first place where BTC will encounter a corrective reaction. However, I cannot predict the extent of this correction. Of course, if BTC rises directly to a higher zone, I would not be surprised. What we are waiting for is a signal to break the uptrend so we can start taking profits in this cycle, regardless of the timing or news.