You are right, it's just wild and educated guess and everyone can make it.
Exactly.

So the best is to really take advantage of the market situation, when the price goes down, then buy and hold and continue to see what the market will be. We can only hope that 2025 will be big for us after Trump sworn as the next US President in January and Bitcoin be back in the 6 digits. We have the full year to push it to like $150k-$180k so the future looks bring this 2025.
Sure. We should take advantage of any condition in the market. When it is pumped, it is the chance to take profits. But when it is dumped, it is the opportunity for collecting more coins. However, we must consider the potential market trends in the future as well. Kindly stop buying more if we are heading the bearish season.
Not sure if we will see Bitcoin to be around $150k-$180k. But it will be great if Bitcoin can be above $150k.
Let me correct the last part of your post which I really do not find agreeable. HODLers do not really lose, well except for the fact that you’re holding on to the wrong asset or your goal was never actually short term, because if you’re HODLing an asset that actually guarantees future returns and long term potentials and you set your target on the long term potential of that asset, then even if you encounter a dip or temporary decline, you don’t view it as losses because that was never in the plan, and you’ll also have that assurance that if/when you HODL on to the asset for the longer time, you’ll surely meet a price surge or a bull run and then all those values that were lost in your portfolio would be recovered immediately.
TBH, I never ask anyone to agree with my statement.

Don't generalize all coins! You can be safe if you are holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other top coins. But if you're holding weak coins or shitcoins, you can end up with losses if you are holding too long time. Many of them can be delisted or lose of the demands in the market. Well, we are talking general coins, it is not only for safe coins!!