Do you believe in the "supercycle" of the crypto market?

[MrSpasybo]

I learned about crypto in 2012 and joined the market in 2017. I've witnessed and experienced a lot of crazy things in this market, and the craziest of all is probably the expectation of a "supercycle" that is repeated in every crypto cycle. As I understand it, a supercycle is defined by a strong and continuous price increase in the long term, no longer limited by the 4-year cycle of the traditional market.

In 2013, the "supercycle" was mentioned as a new era after BTC price reached $1K and became very famous. Investors believed that BTC would permanently replace fiat and we would have a decentralized economy. That belief collapsed under the impact of the 2014-2015 crypto winter.

In 2017, the "supercycle" was mentioned again during the ICO fever and BTC price reached $20K. Investors heard interesting ideas in every field being brought to the blockchain and crypto becoming a means of payment for those services. ICOs were even considered a more efficient way of raising capital than IPOs, meaning the capital raising process would be changed by crypto and the stock market would shift towards tokenization. This expectation collapsed due to the 2018-2019 crypto winter. I missed the opportunity to sell all my tokens, most of which failed and are no longer traded.

In 2021, the "supercycle" was fueled by the belief in crypto applications, including DeFi as a replacement for CeFI, GameFi bringing blockchain & crypto into everyday life, and NFTs tokenizing non-fungible assets. Many KOLs even declared: the supercycle is BTC at $100K. The reality is that BTC price failed to reach $100K in 2021-2022, and the supercycle became a bitter joke. I couldn't take profits at the peak and lost most of my gains.

This year, 2025, the "supercycle" is mentioned again with BTC success in conquering $100K and the BTC Spot ETF. Additionally, Trump win has opened new opportunities for BTC and crypto in the US and globally. We see BTC becoming a strategic reserve asset for many governments, corporations, and companies. We see the disappearance of unfounded accusations related to energy waste and money laundering surrounding BTC. We see the crypto army occupying many governments... KOLs are starting to make big predictions for BTC, they suggest that BTC will never have another major decline, and the crypto winter has been completely erased.

I don't believe this, because the stock market, with its long history, also follows a 4-year cycle. My experience tells me that the crypto community is currently experiencing FOMO and has unrealistic expectations. Some investors say that whales have deceived us in previous cycles, but this time, when we are skeptical about the supercycle, the whales will make the supercycle a reality. I think this is entirely possible but it's not something I can bet my account on. My plan in this cycle is to wait for a reversal signal on the BTC price chart to exit the market with a reasonable profit.

Recently, the trade war and its impact on crypto have helped to cool the heads of extremely FOMO investors. Investors are starting to become more cautious and thinking about risk management instead of going all-in and gambling with the market. Thanks to the trade war, we can also imagine many new scenarios for the market crash during the crypto winter, including macroeconomic reasons such as the escalation of the trade war, inflation, financial crisis, and internal reasons such as the instability of revenue-sharing stablecoins and Restaking.

Are you pursuing the belief in the "super cycle" in this cycle?

[Agbe]

There are allot of different cycles that customers can leverage on when it comes to crypto currency but I don't personally believe in a super cycle because these are just terms that crypto experts uses in trying to make people to invest as far as crypto currency is concerned people buy in the dip and sell when the price of the coin is appreciating over time which they refers to as the bull run so a super cycle is what I am not too convinced about

[yhiaali3]

Thank you for this brief account of the history of Bitcoin and the history of the belief in the supercycle. Personally, I believe that this cycle will not be different from previous cycles and there will be a rise to the peak and then a long decline after it, as was the case in previous cycles.

I expect that the belief in the supercycle of Bitcoin came from people’s feelings that wish Bitcoin to remain on a permanent rise and to achieve more profits all the time without a decline. In fact, this is what happens, but in the long run, that is, if we look at the path of Bitcoin from the first cycle to the current cycle, we can get what is called a supercycle (I mean in general).

[alltalk]

What makes super cycle is different with common cycle? I think there is no much difference between them. Especially in the current cycle, it even can be categorized as a weaker cycle because there is no much pump on altcoins prices. So far, we only saw significant move on Bitcoin price. But for the altcoins, many of them even couldn't reach their ATHs in 2021. How we can expect for super cycle in this year? Do you still believe in big pump on altcoins season?

[SmartGold01]

There are allot of different cycles that customers can leverage on when it comes to crypto currency but I don't personally believe in a super cycle because these are just terms that crypto experts uses in trying to make people to invest as far as crypto currency is concerned people buy in the dip and sell when the price of the coin is appreciating over time which they refers to as the bull run so a super cycle is what I am not too convinced about

The major thing is you should have the basic concept of what you are doing because it bull or bear, we should be able to know when to make investment and when not to make investment, as I know supper or not we would still lose if investments analysis are not provided done. We should be able to understand how the cycle works when its starts and ends.

[TomPluz]

Are you pursuing the belief in the "super cycle" in this cycle?

According to your explanation above, I think we can be in a "super cycle" right now and it is slowly being pricked by realities in the market so I am wondering...are we soon entering the bear cycle? Now, some people are holding to the belief that this time things can be a little different maybe due to the presence of ETFs and the coming in of Trump and his many actions helping the cryptocurrency market in many ways. But then again, we can still insist that no matter what the 4-year-cycle will still be a big force to reckon with. All I say is that let's just wait and observe things and maybe be cautious and have some plans around so as never to be left behind by the market movement.

[omori]

What makes super cycle is different with common cycle? I think there is no much difference between them. Especially in the current cycle, it even can be categorized as a weaker cycle because there is no much pump on altcoins prices. So far, we only saw significant move on Bitcoin price. But for the altcoins, many of them even couldn't reach their ATHs in 2021. How we can expect for super cycle in this year? Do you still believe in big pump on altcoins season?

Sounds like a lost cause, but - everything can happen in crypto.
We will surely see BTC pumping again, but when exactly - only time will tell, and alts would follow.
The said super-cycle would happen only if BTC's adoption would go on like a never-ending domino effect.

[robelneo]

Are you pursuing the belief in the "super cycle" in this cycle?

I'm not a full-time trader, but all the time I'm investing in cryptocurrency. This is the first time I read about supercycles. Maybe I missed this term because its only mentioned in other categories of cryptocurrencies where I am not active, like trading.
All I know is there are only two cycles: the bull and the bear. The bull is where I take profit, and the bear is the phase where I accumulate. I haven't noticed any significant movement that will contribute to this supercycle.

[philipma1957]

Pretty sure reliable cycle patterns will never be the same.  The musky trumpeter is a huge disruptive force in the crypto market.

[0t3p0t]

Pretty sure reliable cycle patterns will never be the same.  The musky trumpeter is a huge disruptive force in the crypto market.

Yeah I agree that cycles will never be the same due to the fact that there are situations that we need to consider like the influence of billionaires jumping into crypto especially Bitcoin that which create hype and other factors changing the flow of the crypto market.

[joniboini]

I believe we don't have to necessarily believe in that if profit is our goal. There are tons of self-fulfilling prophecies and this might be one of them. If the sentiment of the general market shows signs they treat this "supercycle" seriously we just have to adjust our trading plan and prepare for an exit strategy if it gets broken.

I remember seeing the same narrative about the rainbow cycle, the altcoin cycle, and so on. It's clear those cycles got broken every now and then, but people (especially influencer in social media) still use  them to entice retail traders to participate in the market.

[omori]

Yeah I agree that cycles will never be the same due to the fact that there are situations that we need to consider like the influence of billionaires jumping into crypto especially Bitcoin that which create hype and other factors changing the flow of the crypto market.

In a sense - bigger capital entered the game.
It won't change much, in my opinion, once it is settled, however, as for now - it's a new branch of development adoption-wise. Thus, it affects both sentiment and the market greatly.

[KryptoBull]

Recently, the trade war and its impact on crypto have helped to cool the heads of extremely FOMO investors. Investors are starting to become more cautious and thinking about risk management instead of going all-in and gambling with the market. Thanks to the trade war, we can also imagine many new scenarios for the market crash during the crypto winter, including macroeconomic reasons such as the escalation of the trade war, inflation, financial crisis, and internal reasons such as the instability of revenue-sharing stablecoins and Restaking.

Are you pursuing the belief in the "super cycle" in this cycle?

I also don't believe in the overly optimistic predictions of KOLs because they just want to attract viewers, not the actual investment reality as they brag. Supercycle is something that is easily used, following the trend is easier than going against investors' expectations.

I also only have a plan to take profits in 2025, after that, whether there is a supercycle or not is no longer too important. If the supercycle comes, I will continue to return to invest in 2026-2027, on the contrary, if the crypto winter comes again, I will DCA BTC as I did in 2022-2023

[Mr. Magkaisa]

Are you pursuing the belief in the "super cycle" in this cycle?

According to your explanation above, I think we can be in a "super cycle" right now and it is slowly being pricked by realities in the market so I am wondering...are we soon entering the bear cycle? Now, some people are holding to the belief that this time things can be a little different maybe due to the presence of ETFs and the coming in of Trump and his many actions helping the cryptocurrency market in many ways. But then again, we can still insist that no matter what the 4-year-cycle will still be a big force to reckon with. All I say is that let's just wait and observe things and maybe be cautious and have some plans around so as never to be left behind by the market movement.
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        -     I get your point mate, but I think we are still far from the bear cycle, although what we are experiencing so far is in the retracement period, but it can also recover quickly, and it also depends on the positive and negative news in the crypto space.

but as you say, it is still good to let's wait and see what could possibly happen, because we know that the market is very unpredictable that's why volatility is not absent in cryptocurrency.

[LogitechMouse]

What makes super cycle is different with common cycle? I think there is no much difference between them. Especially in the current cycle, it even can be categorized as a weaker cycle because there is no much pump on altcoins prices. So far, we only saw significant move on Bitcoin price. But for the altcoins, many of them even couldn't reach their ATHs in 2021. How we can expect for super cycle in this year? Do you still believe in big pump on altcoins season?

Based on a quick google search, a super cycle is just a theory still especially in the crypto space since it hasn't happened since, but essentially, we can call it a super cycle when the market will have a longer bull run than the usual one that we are experiencing.

As for most of the altcoins not pumping, it's because the altcoin market is diluted. There are so many altcoins, but the liquidity isn't increasing. The money is being distributed towards many, many altcoins that it isn't enough even for the top to go up in price just like what we saw in 2021 and 2017 bull run. Expectations for a super cycle this year? Low to zero, but who knows. Institutions joined the game already so they might be a game changer.

As for big pumps for altcoins, I still believe that there will be big pump on a FEW top altcoins because the price of altcoins tends to move later than that of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's price pumps, it will take months before altcoins do the same... at least based on history.