Do you believe in the "supercycle" of the crypto market?

[philipma1957]

There is that supercycle and parabolic move that many cant' believe happening during the bull runs. We've got different classifications and descriptions toward it. But whether we like it or not, it is happening. This FOMO, supercycle, parabolic move. They all come together every bull run and it will different this time and then by 2028 to 2029 which will be the next cycle happens.

I believe in the existence of FOMO and parabolic move, but I don't believe in supercycle right now. I will only believe it if the market continuously grows from now until the next BTC halving without experiencing a severe crypto winter.

We will wait and see what happens in 2026. As a cycle investor, I hope I will have the opportunity to buy more tokens in the accumulation zone, for example, when BTC will return to test $40K.

this time is different. I heard it a few times.

I do know this.  coins from 2009 2010 and 2011 are moving no all but some.

This is what is keeping the market price at the 90-110k slot.

when enough of the old coins move price will arc upwards bigly.

in order to get a super cycle need to go upwards this year to at least 125k

then in 2026 to over 160k

then in 2027 to say 200k. now those numbers could be high but what they would show if the 4 year cycle ended.

and the longer super cycle has started.

I actually would prefer.

2024 105k
2025 125k
2026 160k
2027 200k
2028 260k

and upwards for btc many premium stocks have 5 to 10 good years in a row.

why not btc?

here is apple from 2016 to 2025


2016    23.85
2017    26.99
2018    40.51
2019    35.31
2020    72.66
2021   126.56
2022   169.23
2023  125.04
2024  184.73
2025  245.00


I would love to see a pattern like apple of the next 10 years.

23.85 to 245.00 = 10.27x the value. if btc is 96k now in ten years it would be 986k

[omori]

^ About two cycles and 1 mil.. I don't think so, but surely, I would be glad to be proven wrong 10 years later.
We will see about that.

[joniboini]

^ About two cycles and 1 mil.. I don't think so, but surely, I would be glad to be proven wrong 10 years later.

I'd love to see the same thing. But realistically speaking, pattern recognition is a hit-and-miss most of the time. It's also hard to be completely objective distance ourselves from bias and see the counter-example of said pattern. Not to mention calculating geopolitics effect on the price is difficult too. But yeah, if BTC hit 1 million I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong.

[philipma1957]

^ About two cycles and 1 mil.. I don't think so, but surely, I would be glad to be proven wrong 10 years later.

I'd love to see the same thing. But realistically speaking, pattern recognition is a hit-and-miss most of the time. It's also hard to be completely objective distance ourselves from bias and see the counter-example of said pattern. Not to mention calculating geopolitics effect on the price is difficult too. But yeah, if BTC hit 1 million I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong.

well it could by 2029.  but more likely by 2033 I do think the pump and dump stuff will stop.

I think some was done be the very rich when they realized they did not have enough btc and it was costly.

[MrSpasybo]

this time is different. I heard it a few times.

I do know this.  coins from 2009 2010 and 2011 are moving no all but some.

This is what is keeping the market price at the 90-110k slot.

when enough of the old coins move price will arc upwards bigly.

in order to get a super cycle need to go upwards this year to at least 125k

then in 2026 to over 160k

then in 2027 to say 200k. now those numbers could be high but what they would show if the 4 year cycle ended.

and the longer super cycle has started.

I actually would prefer.

2024 105k
2025 125k
2026 160k
2027 200k
2028 260k

and upwards for btc many premium stocks have 5 to 10 good years in a row.

why not btc?

We will wait together, the answer will come this year and next year. $100K is a critical zone for investor psychology so BTC will need more time to overcome this sensitive zone.

I am not as optimistic as you, I only maintain the expectation of ATH at $150K-170K for BTC in this cycle. That means I don't believe in a new history or supercycle. BTC has been rising on its own for a long time and it's time for it to push capital into ALTs and trigger altseason before we have to accept the negative impacts of next crypto winter.

[Crypto Library]

Actually, we have to believe in cycle and as well also have to understand the market psychology like the way the big investor liquidated the crypto market have take market on that position make a good investment and when they make that investment we saw the  bull season.

So even we believe on the super cycle of the crypto market we must not always think that market will go the same way it goes on the before. We have to analyse the market find the resistance and support and make the opposite trade like now most of the people are thinking about maybe market is going to fall on bear season but it could be a trap from the whale to liquided the market.

[rizqillah]

Actually, we have to believe in cycle and as well also have to understand the market psychology like the way the big investor liquidated the crypto market have take market on that position make a good investment and when they make that investment we saw the  bull season.

So even we believe on the super cycle of the crypto market we must not always think that market will go the same way it goes on the before. We have to analyse the market find the resistance and support and make the opposite trade like now most of the people are thinking about maybe market is going to fall on bear season but it could be a trap from the whale to liquided the market.

I agree with you, we have to believe in the cycle but we have to have our own analysis because the market movement will not be the same as it happened [in the previous cycle.
that is the function of knowledge in crypto investment.
make analysis and develop strategies to gain profit.

[bayu7adi]

History repeats itself over and over again, that's what makes this four-year template something I believe in... there's no scientific data on it, but it's happened four times and it can't be a coincidence, right??? So, yes I believe in the four-year super cycle...

It allows me to make decisions going forward about how active I should be in crypto, because there are bearish and bullish periods... so we can maximize opportunities in the buying year and the selling year...

It's not instant money, but at least there's a belief that we're a little more confident that we'll get profit at a certain time... hopefully this super cycle will continue to exist and be something that can provide life for many people in the future...

btw, I thought the image you attached was for a time frame since 2013... turns out it's since 2023... its okay... the graph means it's for a shorter period than 4 years, right?

[bitterguy28]

History repeats itself over and over again, that's what makes this four-year template something I believe in... there's no scientific data on it, but it's happened four times and it can't be a coincidence, right??? So, yes I believe in the four-year super cycle...

the evidence of this 4 year cycle is the halving event that occurs every 4 years satoshi decided on this and the only logical explanation has something to do with economic studies

It's not instant money, but at least there's a belief that we're a little more confident that we'll get profit at a certain time... hopefully this super cycle will continue to exist and be something that can provide life for many people in the future...

it really is not easy quick money and the quicker people realize the quicker they can get up to speed when it comes to making good strategies about the market and maximizing everything there is to maximize

[New Ranger]

it really is not easy quick money and the quicker people realize the quicker they can get up to speed when it comes to making good strategies about the market and maximizing everything there is to maximize

Of course, the pattern is also not much different, the only difference is in the price for the cycle, it can be said that it's almost similar. similar trading situations repeat themselves over time and are also relevant if we relate them to past data and what generally happens, regardless of the conditions. In fact, trend traders enter as early as possible and exit before the trend reverses.

[Crypto Library]

I agree with you, we have to believe in the cycle but we have to have our own analysis because the market movement will not be the same as it happened [in the previous cycle.
that is the function of knowledge in crypto investment.
make analysis and develop strategies to gain profit.

Yeah, that's it.
It is something like the mathematics formula. When you know the formula then even if the question was uncommon on the exam sheet it would be easy for you to solve that question.
Same for the crypto cycle even there is cycle and yes it happen most of the time by around 4years but it is also truth that market position will not be always same so we have to got the analysis skill then we should follow the cycle.

[target]

I agree with you, we have to believe in the cycle but we have to have our own analysis because the market movement will not be the same as it happened [in the previous cycle.
that is the function of knowledge in crypto investment.
make analysis and develop strategies to gain profit.

Yeah, that's it.
It is something like the mathematics formula. When you know the formula then even if the question was uncommon on the exam sheet it would be easy for you to solve that question.
Same for the crypto cycle even there is cycle and yes it happen most of the time by around 4years but it is also truth that market position will not be always same so we have to got the analysis skill then we should follow the cycle.

If this dip continues the down trend you can therefore say this is already a bear market and the next bull season is on the next halving. This bear market will really be more devastating for the altcoin holders because they never get to see the light under that tunnel for a long time. There use to be pumps to unknown tokens but this time, they bulls leave them out.

And if ever there is a supercycle like what they are saying, I can only wish the supercycle will include altcoins be part of its bull run.

[Baofeng]

it really is not easy quick money and the quicker people realize the quicker they can get up to speed when it comes to making good strategies about the market and maximizing everything there is to maximize

Of course, the pattern is also not much different, the only difference is in the price for the cycle, it can be said that it's almost similar. similar trading situations repeat themselves over time and are also relevant if we relate them to past data and what generally happens, regardless of the conditions. In fact, trend traders enter as early as possible and exit before the trend reverses.

Yes, pattern will change due to time, it's not like when we are in the beginning we see huge returns, now it's different. Although we can still profit big, it's not as big as the last all time high.

And that's why where Holding for a long time is really a good strategy because you are going to see your money multiply many times if you have the mentality to hold let's say multiple cycles.

[MrSpasybo]

If this dip continues the down trend you can therefore say this is already a bear market and the next bull season is on the next halving. This bear market will really be more devastating for the altcoin holders because they never get to see the light under that tunnel for a long time. There use to be pumps to unknown tokens but this time, they bulls leave them out.

And if ever there is a supercycle like what they are saying, I can only wish the supercycle will include altcoins be part of its bull run.

Well, I'm not so pessimistic as to give up hope for an altseason in this cycle. I believe it will still happen as it has in previous cycles rather than being delayed until the next cycle. BTC.D shows that money is flowing into BTC and it can't stay there forever, only the rotation of money can create price increases and bring more profit to the whales, they know it and will do it. The only question is the timing and the market fluctuations in the coming months.

ALTs were once thought to be a driving force behind super cycles, helping the market break out of the 4-year cycle created by BTC halving. Now we all know that was a naive view, but it could become a reality in many more cycles.

[Crypto Library]

If this dip continues the down trend you can therefore say this is already a bear market and the next bull season is on the next halving. This bear market will really be more devastating for the altcoin holders because they never get to see the light under that tunnel for a long time. There use to be pumps to unknown tokens but this time, they bulls leave them out.

And if ever there is a supercycle like what they are saying, I can only wish the supercycle will include altcoins be part of its bull run.

Let's not hoping this hope for something good in the near future because, if we just saw the previous bull season it will always notice that before every bull season we saw something like this situation on market that most of the people were thought about the negative thing on market and liquided their fund from market that time we will also saw the last turn of the bull season.
So I am still hoping for the good we I also in the fear of the bear season.