I think longer time analysis of like 6 months might be better because by then many would have already get use to all these news and the current FUD would have died down. This would reduce or limit the market manipulation which doaffect the volatility more.
Mate, actually the thing is that, this is crypto space and in my opinion there is there is no fixed time frame for exact, accurate analysis but yes you can say you can fetch probability on the basis of specific time frame and here things happen so unexpectedly so predicting anything here so accuratly is nearly impossible, In this space more you have knowledge more you will learn and this cycle will never stop, and you need to always consider yourself in learning phase just like i consider myself.
On the same hand, if we look at the news headline about the crypto space, many times you will feel that the market is behaving totally opposite to the news you have heard of or read anywhere. This is why, I aforementioned that anything can happen here anytime.