Analysts: Bitcoin cycle might have been shifted

[Gposas]

the altcoin season didn't come along while BTC pumped after the halving. that's one proof that cycle has already changed. thebear market coming again after a year is likely to come and if BTC bull run continues i guess the cycle for BTC is the only that has changed positively while not for altcoins.

BTC adoption has changed a lot in the macro level. with trump elevating it as one of the strategic reserves and institutions coming to accumulate, maybe we can see another ATH.

Bitcoin drives the entire crypto market, so once there is any mentioned of crypto circle, it is directly focus on the Bitcoin ecosystem. I doubt if Altcoins has separate circles, though each altcoins has a separate blockchain networks, but if they do have a circle, unfortunately, this circle are of no effect on the crypto market as far as I know
In addition, It is clear that altcoins has no direct control of the market but Bitcoin does control the market overtimes.

You are right but I believe in the past history of Bitcoin halving and it's circles, after a bullish move of Bitcoin there is also a corresponding Altcoin season. But as of last year till now, analyst has been speaking of the Altcoins season but it wasn't observed. This could be a slight factor to the topic above but a critical look shows a possible change already.
Or else I'm wrong.

[Bobcrypto]

lets wait to see the number of related bear we could have this month before we can conclude on where we are heading towards.

A lot of bitcoiners are unsure of what direction we are heading right now and i completely understand. My recommendation as always is to be patient, if you are a long term investor, you don't need to fret or rush to make a decision, don't fall for fud and don't panic sell. If you wanna sell, it should be because you truly want to, not because you are scared.

Fear has been the major reasons while many long term investors has taken some unnecessary investment decision that has lead to heavy losses. I have written on many post why the long term investors shouldn't worry about their investments when the markets goes dip or dump.

Long term investors should be confident knowing very well that their investments is targeted for many years, and they deserve to be patient, waiting in the future to reap from their investments.

[bayu7adi]

Fear has been the major reasons while many long term investors has taken some unnecessary investment decision that has lead to heavy losses. I have written on many post why the long term investors shouldn't worry about their investments when the markets goes dip or dump.

Long term investors should be confident knowing very well that their investments is targeted for many years, and they deserve to be patient, waiting in the future to reap from their investments.

hold.. hold... hold... then die... living miserably holding BTC, but not enjoying the results..

actually it is not wrong to take advantage to appreciate ourselves for holding and being patient... yes, we all still need a salary and income to live and enjoy life, so actually patience in investing has its limits, not always holding until an undetermined time... we must still have a target when to stop and when to start again...

We can still sell our assets in a bear market, if it is very urgent, such as for sudden medical treatment where the emergency fund cannot cover everything.... teaching someone to hold is good, but as long as we don't understand each other's conditions, it is also not wise to place the blame on the person who sells during bearish times, because no one actually wants a loss...

[Kemarit]

Fear has been the major reasons while many long term investors has taken some unnecessary investment decision that has lead to heavy losses. I have written on many post why the long term investors shouldn't worry about their investments when the markets goes dip or dump.

Long term investors should be confident knowing very well that their investments is targeted for many years, and they deserve to be patient, waiting in the future to reap from their investments.

hold.. hold... hold... then die... living miserably holding BTC, but not enjoying the results..

LOL, but that's true, we can't do anything but to hold right now. And this is what we call delay gratification, we might be suffering right now and our lives miserable, but once thing works out for us as the price goes up again to 6 digits, then we will have the last laugh.

So just be mentally strong and we can go over this problem together. It's that the Trump announcement on the whole tariff war that really affected every market out there not just crypto.

[LogitechMouse]

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Again, 2025 is supposed to kick start bitcoin new circle but there are insinuation and speculations of a bear run, and because of this various market ideas, some market analysts suggest that Bitcoin four year circle is not ineffective as it used to be, the circle might have been permanently shifted,  some analyst insisted. What do you think?

Check here for details: https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-market-cycle-permanently-shifted-polygon-founder

As a believer of the 4-year cycle, I will only believe that things have changed if we will see the bear market this year happening sooner than many are expecting.

If we will follow the 4-year cycle, we expect that the year 2025 will be the year where the crypto market will go up significantly before entering the bear market season the next year. There are some things that could've been a factor towards the shift, but I don't think that they can change the market cycle of cryptocurrency. I might be wrong though and we might see a quicker bull run season that it used to be, or we might see a super cycle where it will last longer than we expected. Whatever the case is, I hope that we are all ready just in case things don't go well.

[Faisal2202]

Your points also makes a lot of sense and that may also be considered. From speculations that the four years cycle has been shifted, and now the cycle been only related to Trump political period on seat, these are all speculations and until proven are just mere rumours. This should be regarded as a trap and people will fall for this trap because the market is already showing some signs of such. It is necessary that the market continues in this trajectory or people might fall victim of this trap before we realize.

The tariff war was a black swan event, and market dumped heavily but now it recovered to $83 which is a big jump which shows it can even make new ATH again in the second peak in no time and things can be very fast therefore anyone who plans to exit the market, IMO they should do it when they have the first chance.

I am trapped in the market for now, waiting for right moment to exit but it is not like, I did not see this trap coming, only I expected it to come later like in Q3, as according to past Q1 suppose to be the most bullish but it was a trap also. Therefore we should not expect much from the DT now, he is playing a big game.

[rby]

lets wait to see the number of related bear we could have this month before we can conclude on where we are heading towards.

A lot of bitcoiners are unsure of what direction we are heading right now and i completely understand. My recommendation as always is to be patient, if you are a long term investor, you don't need to fret or rush to make a decision, don't fall for fud and don't panic sell. If you wanna sell, it should be because you truly want to, not because you are scared.

Same thing I told a friend: if you don’t have an urgent need to sell your bitcoins, keep holding and don’t panic. A lot is happening right now, and we can’t really tell which stage of the cycle we’re in now. But trust me, many will sell at a loss for no real reason, just fear!

[Agbe]

I will not dispute on this fact though I have only spent one cycle in the ecosystem and from 2021 to 2025 many things have changed and people who have been in the system for a long time said the All Time High would come after the halving of 2024 but we saw it before the Halving and after the halving again so we don't know what will happen in the next four years cycle of bitcoin again. Whether the cycle will enter five years now or not because many things have changed in the bitcoin pricing system.

[Jating]

lets wait to see the number of related bear we could have this month before we can conclude on where we are heading towards.

A lot of bitcoiners are unsure of what direction we are heading right now and i completely understand. My recommendation as always is to be patient, if you are a long term investor, you don't need to fret or rush to make a decision, don't fall for fud and don't panic sell. If you wanna sell, it should be because you truly want to, not because you are scared.

Same thing I told a friend: if you don’t have an urgent need to sell your bitcoins, keep holding and don’t panic. A lot is happening right now, and we can’t really tell which stage of the cycle we’re in now. But trust me, many will sell at a loss for no real reason, just fear!

Good advise, we should live and die by it, just kidding, I mean there could be some emergencies in our life that we need to sell. But at the very least, learn to not to sell specially if the price is very low. Just like today, we are still -20% from the previous all time high. So just imagine selling at that price point, you are just losing the potential profit. Maybe you can just borrow to someone and then pay them right away instead of selling our Bitcoin that we have been keeping for a long time and allow others to "steal" it from us.

[Kemarit]

I will not dispute on this fact though I have only spent one cycle in the ecosystem and from 2021 to 2025 many things have changed and people who have been in the system for a long time said the All Time High would come after the halving of 2024 but we saw it before the Halving and after the halving again so we don't know what will happen in the next four years cycle of bitcoin again. Whether the cycle will enter five years now or not because many things have changed in the bitcoin pricing system.

The only thing that we have seen new is that we have a new all time high before the halving. But I still do believed that it might still follow the old pattern, as in the 4 year cycle will still be in effect.

Just like what we have seen in the last couple of days, there is a movement in price hitting as high as $95,000. So it means the bullish feeling of the investors is still here, they just want to see some positive news first before investing again.

So really too early to say that the cycle has shifted or new patterns emerging.

[TomPluz]

Just like what we have seen in the last couple of days, there is a movement in price hitting as high as $95,000. So it means the bullish feeling of the investors is still here, they just want to see some positive news first before investing again. So really too early to say that the cycle has shifted or new patterns emerging.

That bullishness is not yet giving up and we have seen that in the past few days...and I am hoping that this can be extended far more even going into the $100K though am doubting if we are prepared for a new ATH. Still, we can never know what can be as the market is really frail and looking for some inspiration right now. The 4-year-cycle may still be working but we can only conclude on that maybe at the end of the year or early part of 2026. Personally, I prefer that Bitcoin would follow a new pattern instead of the cycle as the market is now very different compared to years ago.

[Jating]

Just like what we have seen in the last couple of days, there is a movement in price hitting as high as $95,000. So it means the bullish feeling of the investors is still here, they just want to see some positive news first before investing again. So really too early to say that the cycle has shifted or new patterns emerging.

That bullishness is not yet giving up and we have seen that in the past few days...and I am hoping that this can be extended far more even going into the $100K though am doubting if we are prepared for a new ATH. Still, we can never know what can be as the market is really frail and looking for some inspiration right now. The 4-year-cycle may still be working but we can only conclude on that maybe at the end of the year or early part of 2026. Personally, I prefer that Bitcoin would follow a new pattern instead of the cycle as the market is now very different compared to years ago.

We could have just hit a barrier at $95k, but it's good that there are no downward spiral after the barrier is not broken, we remain above $90k and as others might see it, still a good sign that the bulls in still inside the market. So it's hard to predict if there are a shift as we haven't seen it before, no precedence whatsoever. So with that, we can only hold for the position that we are bullish and that the price can still go on a massive rise just like the previous bull run years. Just a matter how big big the bull run will be or when we are going to see it.

[taufik123]

-snip-
So with that, we can only hold for the position that we are bullish and that the price can still go on a massive rise just like the previous bull run years. Just a matter how big big the bull run will be or when we are going to see it.

yes just need to wait for the bullrun to arrive and reach an even higher ATH than before.
The trend is still going pretty well, there's no FUD that makes the market worse and the policies Trump made hopefully won't affect the crypto market anymore.

Bitcoin is in good form at the moment, just have to wait and time will tell.
The new ATH and new hope will be a long journey for bitcoin.

[Forsyth Jones]

For me it still remains intact, what I'm noticing is that each new bitcoin cycle has lower historical highs than the previous ones. To reinforce the thesis of the so-called experts, this year needs to end in the red. 

yes just need to wait for the bullrun to arrive and reach an even higher ATH than before.
The trend is still going pretty well, there's no FUD that makes the market worse and the policies Trump made hopefully won't affect the crypto market anymore.

Bitcoin is in good form at the moment, just have to wait and time will tell.
The new ATH and new hope will be a long journey for bitcoin.

There is no FUD, but if Trump announces the tariffs again, it is enough to bring down the price of the markets. I hope that new traditional investors acquire maturity over time and understand that this tariff has no correlation with Bitcoin. In fact, they should buy more due to the political uncertainties caused by political fights and fear of recession.

[taufik123]

There is no FUD, but if Trump announces the tariffs again, it is enough to bring down the price of the markets. I hope that new traditional investors acquire maturity over time and understand that this tariff has no correlation with Bitcoin. In fact, they should buy more due to the political uncertainties caused by political fights and fear of recession.

Trump's policy of increasing tariffs against China has indeed had an impact on the global economy, including bitcoin.
But when the tariff war is over and returns to normal, everything will be fine as it is now.

There is no FUD and any policies from trump that have disrupted the global economy.
Now it's time for bitcoin to reach the new ATH faster.

Investors who exit first are likely to enter and bitcoin dominance increases and eventually when the dominance drops,
but the bitcoin price stabilizes above the new ATH, then the altcoin starts to recover.