AAUC (AA UNION CAPITAL) - Investment themes for 2019

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We have identified three key themes for 2019:

Interest rate normalization: With monetary policy tightening, forward-looking returns are likely to be lower than in the past few years and volatility higher, favoring active vs. passive managers, especially uncorrelated return strategies.

Regional economic divergence: Differences in the relative strength of labor markets and economic growth between countries have led to large divergences in global monetary policy, driving growing interest rate differentials and large currency moves. It is important for investors to look for large divergences between fundamentals and prices in order to find attractive investment opportunities.

New geopolitical regimes: With populism on the rise, fiscal spending could increase and create possible upside risk for inflation. Countries easing fiscal policy should see equities outperform.



For more details on the Investment Outlook, please visit: www.credit-suisse.com/microsites/private-banking/investment-outlook/en.html

Special topic

US yield curve inversion: Do we need to worry?

The US yield curve has flattened significantly in the course of 2018, and generally a flatter yield curve tends to foreshadow an economic slowdown. However, given the outlook for next year we think it is premature to consider the current flatness a sign of an imminent recession, and we do not expect the US yield curve to invert next year.

Find out more in https://www.aaunioncapital.com/