The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic

[electronicash]

they scheduled this too far ahead,  they really are conditioning Sean to win though. according to some articles Sean's surgery was successful and so he may be in his best when he fight again.

I think the timing is what you'd expect. It's scheduled for 7th June, so only 2 months from now. Merab fought Umar less than 3 months ago, so it will be less than 5 months between those 2 fights. And O'Malley needed (or still needs) some time to recover from the surgery and to reinvent himself.
Odds are clearly in favor of Merab though: x1.33 Vs x3.33 for Sean. 

its not yet on Stake.  well bookmakers don't usually make mistakes on their odds. if its Merab going to win still, too bad for Suga. can't see Suga going to be make it to the top again. he won't even be winning against Umar too.

Dana must have felt bad that his dog only defended his title once and lost it because he risk Suga against Merab. i would risk a few USD for Suga to win though. maybe this time he knows what to do.

more exciting fights though are Volk vs Lopes and Chandler vs Paddy. it looks like Dana is out to remove the veterans out the way to welcome the young warriors.

[pawel7777]

its not yet on Stake.  well bookmakers don't usually make mistakes on their odds. if its Merab going to win still, too bad for Suga. can't see Suga going to be make it to the top again. he won't even be winning against Umar too.

The odds I quoted were from DuelBits. Sometimes it pays to bet early, as bookies who set the odds earlier than others could potentially misplace them. But I don't think that's the case here as these two have already fought against each other, so we know, more or less, what to expect.

Dana must have felt bad that his dog only defended his title once and lost it because he risk Suga against Merab. i would risk a few USD for Suga to win though. maybe this time he knows what to do.

Dana had no choice, he had to match Sean against one of the good grapplers/wrestlers. After he KO'd Aljo, matching him up against Merab might not have sound that risky at the time and, if I remember correctly, Sean was a favourite. But we all know how that ended.

[electronicash]

its not yet on Stake.  well bookmakers don't usually make mistakes on their odds. if its Merab going to win still, too bad for Suga. can't see Suga going to be make it to the top again. he won't even be winning against Umar too.

The odds I quoted were from DuelBits. Sometimes it pays to bet early, as bookies who set the odds earlier than others could potentially misplace them. But I don't think that's the case here as these two have already fought against each other, so we know, more or less, what to expect.

Dana must have felt bad that his dog only defended his title once and lost it because he risk Suga against Merab. i would risk a few USD for Suga to win though. maybe this time he knows what to do.

Dana had no choice, he had to match Sean against one of the good grapplers/wrestlers. After he KO'd Aljo, matching him up against Merab might not have sound that risky at the time and, if I remember correctly, Sean was a favourite. But we all know how that ended.

rumor was that Dana also hated Aljo for not fighting Merab so he matched Suga vs Aljo.  he undermined Merab too much that it only hurt his money makers.  no one even ask for this rematch except Suga but because Dana is desperate to have a popular champ that everybody will cheer, he had to make this fight again hoping Suga will win.

if for instance Suga still loses this rematch. i think he will never be climbing up anymore. so this could be his last chance and Dana will throw him under the bus.

[pawel7777]

rumor was that Dana also hated Aljo for not fighting Merab so he matched Suga vs Aljo.  he undermined Merab too much that it only hurt his money makers.  no one even ask for this rematch except Suga but because Dana is desperate to have a popular champ that everybody will cheer, he had to make this fight again hoping Suga will win.
(...)

I'm not sure about that, I think Merab might have outgrown O'Malley in hype/fame. He wasn't well-known to casual mma fans before their first fight, but his popularity spiked massively ever after. And the win against Umar proved he's a real deal and might be staying at the top for a while.

Odds for all main card fights:

Krylov, Nikita x1.54 Vs Reyes, Dominick x2.45
Mitchell, Bryce x2.80 Vs Silva, Jean x1.44
Rodriguez, Yair x1.50 Vs Freire, Patricio x2.62
Chandler, Michael x2.25 Vs Pimblett, Paddy x1.64
Volkanovski, Alex x1.76 Vs Lopes, Diego x2.08

I think that's a really good card. I wouldn't mind watching all of those fights in full, if time allows.
In terms of odds, I kind of expected Chandler Vs Paddy to be more even, but it's not a secret that odds makers prefer younger fighters, plus, Paddy did very well in his last fight against Bobby Green (I refuse to refer to him as "King").
I'm not sure what would be next for Chandler if he loses. He'll be 39 in two weeks, and he wouldn't be in a position to get any big money fights. So his options would be either hanging up the gloves or accepting fights with lower-ranked fighters (Gamrot, Fiziev, Dariush etc), and I don't think that's something he would be interested in.

[electronicash]

UFC likes the top fighters to be a striker that can be explosive in the cage. one that can satisfy the imagination, Merab isn't a striker who could knockdown opponents to the ground. but sure he is becoming popular.

Chandler losing 3 in a row would be tragic for his career. its over and its very possible now because Paddy isn't the kind of a kid anymore. He is well rounded nowadays.

[pawel7777]

Chandler losing 3 in a row would be tragic for his career. its over and its very possible now because Paddy isn't the kind of a kid anymore. He is well rounded nowadays.

If he was to lose but after a good fight, he would still be getting offers, but it would have to be against guys ranked below him, meaning no more big money fights. And I just can't imagine Chandler would be willing to accept that, so, if he loses, it could be his last fight.

[Zed0X]

^ Chandler was completely dominated by Paddy. He probably landed just one good punch and that's about it. I think he should follow Dustin's footstep of having a retirement fight before every young guy knocks him out and further tarnish his career.

For Paddy, looks like he's just one fight away of a title shot. It would have been nice if he and Ilia slugs it out in the octagon.

[bitbit97]

In UFC 314 there were fighters that came from other promotions, and there they were either champions or really top rank fighters. To bad all of them lost, and fighters that were champions are not as good as average UFC fighters. I have noticed that you discuss Michael Chandler and he is an example of a fighter that was «on top» in other promotion and shows «weak results» in UFC. I make me think that only those who start young in UFC have chances to become champions, but those who were fighting in other promotions and after years of being in prime moved to UFC, have chance only to show average results.

[electronicash]

In UFC 314 there were fighters that came from other promotions, and there they were either champions or really top rank fighters. To bad all of them lost, and fighters that were champions are not as good as average UFC fighters. I have noticed that you discuss Michael Chandler and he is an example of a fighter that was «on top» in other promotion and shows «weak results» in UFC. I make me think that only those who start young in UFC have chances to become champions, but those who were fighting in other promotions and after years of being in prime moved to UFC, have chance only to show average results.

because they are  only noticed by UFC when they deserve to be in UFC. once UFC sees them to be a warrior in the octagon, they invite them from other promotion and offer a contract.

Chandler was a top fighting in other promotion but there was also an incident that he got KO on his old promotion. he was popular and can also show great fights. he was able to climbed. he been inactive for a long  time waiting for conor to fight him, he then got rusty and this is the result.

[pawel7777]

^ Chandler was completely dominated by Paddy. He probably landed just one good punch and that's about it. I think he should follow Dustin's footstep of having a retirement fight before every young guy knocks him out and further tarnish his career.

For Paddy, looks like he's just one fight away of a title shot. It would have been nice if he and Ilia slugs it out in the octagon.

I expected the fight to be more even, and it looked like that in the first round. But later, Paddy absolutely demolished Chandler and now he's in a great position to be calling out everyone from the top 5, except for Islam, as he's not ready for him yet. After another win, he might get a title fight, but I'm not sure if he really wants to fight Islam, he's probably better of to have a couple of easier fights before that against guys like Dustin, Justin or Charles.

[electronicash]

^ Chandler was completely dominated by Paddy. He probably landed just one good punch and that's about it. I think he should follow Dustin's footstep of having a retirement fight before every young guy knocks him out and further tarnish his career.

For Paddy, looks like he's just one fight away of a title shot. It would have been nice if he and Ilia slugs it out in the octagon.

I expected the fight to be more even, and it looked like that in the first round. But later, Paddy absolutely demolished Chandler and now he's in a great position to be calling out everyone from the top 5, except for Islam, as he's not ready for him yet. After another win, he might get a title fight, but I'm not sure if he really wants to fight Islam, he's probably better of to have a couple of easier fights before that against guys like Dustin, Justin or Charles.

definitely not ready for these 3. they are still able to kick asses while Dana is still trying to groom Paddy. he is his dog in UK. These 3 may have been defeated in their last fights but they are still in their best shape.

Paddy still is reckless compare to these 3. they don't strike when range is unsure. he was just lucky that Chandler isn't in his prime anymore. I think even Charles will still be able to submit Paddy.

[Zed0X]

^ Yeah, those are definitely tough fights for Paddy but who else is in line on his rise to the title? I think anything less than those three would be a downgrade unless all of them were injured or already have scheduled fights. Maybe Tsarukyan? Anyway, he already named Oliveira as his preferred opponent next.

[pawel7777]

Thinking of what's next for Volkanovski - the rankings haven't yet been updated, but it looks like Max Holloway would be a top contender. I don't expect the UFC to be very keen on letting them fight each other for the 4th time. Quick research tells me that the only "tetralogy" in the UFC's history was between Moreno and Figuiredo, but the story was quite different, as the first fight was a draw and then they had one win each before they matched them up again. Here, we have Alex winning 3 times already, so I would take Max out of the picture.

That probably boils it down to either Yair Rodriguez (already defeated by Alex by TKO) or Movsar Evloev. I think Alex would be happy to take on either of them and probably would be the favourite. Rodriguez is far more entertaining and would bring in more views than "boring" Evloev, who is undefeated but has never finished anyone in the UFC.
The thought of Evloev becoming a champ must be horrifying to Dana White, but, if he has enough confidence in Alex, he could make that fight happen in hopes Volk would ruin Evloev's undefeated record and send him down the ranks so he wouldn't be a problem anymore.

[electronicash]

^ Yeah, those are definitely tough fights for Paddy but who else is in line on his rise to the title? I think anything less than those three would be a downgrade unless all of them were injured or already have scheduled fights. Maybe Tsarukyan? Anyway, he already named Oliveira as his preferred opponent next.

there will be more fights to happen yet before they will decide which one will be next for paddy's opponent. but he is surely not fit to fight among the top fighters in the lightweight. but because Dana is grooming him, they might give Beneil Dariush.

Thinking of what's next for Volkanovski - the rankings haven't yet been updated, but it looks like Max Holloway would be a top contender. I don't expect the UFC to be very keen on letting them fight each other for the 4th time. Quick research tells me that the only "tetralogy" in the UFC's history was between Moreno and Figuiredo, but the story was quite different, as the first fight was a draw and then they had one win each before they matched them up again. Here, we have Alex winning 3 times already, so I would take Max out of the picture.

That probably boils it down to either Yair Rodriguez (already defeated by Alex by TKO) or Movsar Evloev. I think Alex would be happy to take on either of them and probably would be the favourite. Rodriguez is far more entertaining and would bring in more views than "boring" Evloev, who is undefeated but has never finished anyone in the UFC.
The thought of Evloev becoming a champ must be horrifying to Dana White, but, if he has enough confidence in Alex, he could make that fight happen in hopes Volk would ruin Evloev's undefeated record and send him down the ranks so he wouldn't be a problem anymore.

Alex expressed his interest in fighting Evloev, i think Dana will still give Evloev to Alex. but what could be a big surprise is that if Alex will also vacate the belt and move to LH to chase Tuporia. I'd like to believe a good rematch for them in LH.

[pawel7777]

The UFC rankings have been updated.
Michael Chandler dropped down by five places, from 7th to 12th place. Paddy moved up by 4, to 8th place, pushing up Gamrot to 7th.

I'm not sure why Topuria is not showing in the lightweight ranking, since he officially moved up the weight class. He's still ranked as a featherweight and dropped to number 3 contender.

Dominic Reyes made it to the top 10 of the light heavyweight. If he gets a fight with someone ranked above him and wins, he might be in a position for a shot at the belt. Pretty good considering many have written him off. I predict he could be matched for a rematch with Blachowicz.