Once again we are thinking about something that would be harder and harder to predict the more we get closer. The reason is that when there is like 8 months to go, you give a big range, like 50k to 100k range, a huge one. However, the closer we get, the lower there range gets, it becomes something that will reach to 55k to 60k and so forth. This why I think we should consider it being something much harder. This is why I should avoid getting to make some predictions, it doesn't really feel like it would be something easy for me to do. As long as I can avoid it, there is really nothing to do about it.
Predictions are just an interesting part of the investment journey, because they always give us excitement and surprises. My goal when predicting is to express my personal opinion as logically as possible, then get feedback from the community, and finally create a basis to monitor the fluctuations of BTC price according to time, as a form of market analysis diary.
Although I was quite confident that BTC would reach $39K at Halving, I was really surprised by the strong price increase of BTC yesterday and today. We already have BTC at $57K, and there's no telling what price BTC might reach at the Halving. The market is stronger than all of us ^^
There's no assurance that the bitcoin market price will be at $69,000 by the time of halving, we cannot presumed on what we are not sure of, it may be close or even ahead that all time high, but one thing that is certain is the experience with bullrun after the halving at anytime, while we should still expects more dips along all these periods because its going to be followed by extensive volatility.
If BTC reaches $69K or above $69K at Halving 2024, this will be a new history for BTC and the market, as in previous cycles, BTC was only able to create ATH after Halving thanks to the momentum from the story of increased scarcity.
All my predictions are based on history so I will temporarily believe in history until we have new history. Anyway, watching the BTC price rise is really interesting!