Altcoin season index = 78: are we really in Altseason?

[MrSpasybo]

After the BTC Spot ETF was approved, we witnessed a decline in BTC price from $49K to around $42K - 43K while Altcoins did not have a huge decline. Many community members are expecting that we have begun Altseason - the boom period of Altcoins. There are many different definitions of Altseason, but I will refer to the Altcoin Season Index on BlockchainCenter:

If 75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days) it is Altcoin Season. Excluded from the Top 50 are Stablecoins (Tether, DAI…) and asset backed tokens (WBTC, stETH, cLINK,…)^[1]

According to this definition and available data, current Index = 78 > 75 and we are in Altseason. Should we switch to investing in Altcoins to follow the Altcoins boom and gain x10, x50, x100 profits???

I do not think so. I don't dare give a definition of Altseason, but here's what I expect from Altseason:

• BTC halving occurs, confirming the start of a new cycle.
• BTC price has reached a high price to confirm the growth trend, BTC.D increased sharply.
• BTC price goes sideways, money flows to Altcoins.
• Most of the top altcoins increased in price stronger than BTC, BTC.D decreased.

Currently, we still do not have BTC Halving and BTC price has not created a new ATH, and most Altcoins have not created new peaks. BTC.D is still in an uptrend, showing BTC's bullish advantage over Altcoins. So I don't think Altseason has begun and we should still be cautious with investments in Altcoins, at least until the BTC halving.

So what is the problem with the Altcoin Season Index on BlockchainCenter?

This is an index determined by the growth rate of the top 50 Altcoins compared to Bitcoin in the most recent 90 days. This index is very susceptible to noise for a number of reasons:

• The 90 days period is too short, although it represents a season in nature, it is not enough to represent the Altcoins's uptrend in crypto market with 4-year cycle.
• The capitalization distribution among the top 50 altcoins is uneven. The strong growth of the majority of small-cap Altcoins is not representative of Altcoins's trend relative to Bitcoin.

We need a solution to guide the process of investing in Altcoins. My solution: change your perspective on Season.

• 1 year = 1 weather cycle with 4 seasons, each season lasts 3 months = 90 days.
• 1 crypto market cycle = 4 years, each year represents 1 crypto season.

As such, Altcoin Year Index should be used. Data becomes less noisy and easier to track. This index is only at 27, showing that we are not yet in Altseason, but it is recovering to above 25, meaning that the growth potential of Altcoins right now is huge. We can start tracking Altcoins and prepare to shift our investment from BTC to Altcoins.

That is my subjective opinion to evaluate the market, how about you? Do you think Altseason has begun? What are your criteria for Altseason?
[1] Altcoin Season Index

[BitMaxz]

I don't think we are in altcoin season we just see altcoin price surge is due to upcoming Bitcoin events and Bitcoin increase but it doesn't mean it's altcoin season.

Maybe after the block halving, we will see Bitcoin become stable and Altcoin may become bullish but not right now because in the past it always happens every after the block halving.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

We aren't there yet, alt season may be preceded by the bitcoin bullrun to start with, then this may happen at the same time or almost immediately after that, we cannot give a precise prediction on this, but there are many things that may have to determine wether we are having altcoins season or not and part of it is just what had been mentioned about bitcoin bullrun which occurs as a result of the halving, the economy and financial market performance, news, supply and demand rates and some other factors.

[MrSpasybo]

I don't think we are in altcoin season we just see altcoin price surge is due to upcoming Bitcoin events and Bitcoin increase but it doesn't mean it's altcoin season.

Maybe after the block halving, we will see Bitcoin become stable and Altcoin may become bullish but not right now because in the past it always happens every after the block halving.

Yeah, BTC halving is an important milestone and we need to wait until it happens and is followed by strong growth of BTC. At this time, it is too early for us to expect a really big and hot altseason. Rushing into investing in altcoins right now seems a bit risky to me! Patience will be worth it during the real altseason in late 2024 and early 2025.

[electronicash]

there are altcoins that are so bullish though. SOL rise made me feel like i'm too late in buying. so i bought just 3 of it at $64 and sold quickly because i think its also about to plunge. i agree there is really the need for halving to pull the altcoin prices up and this means the altcoin season will still be in mid year.

whenever BTC dumps just like this week. the prices of altcoin are diving deeper than what BTC had. and even a good development news about their roadmap won't matter because BTC is dumping.

[debra]

It is just few altcoins which can increase very significantly. Most altcoins still can't break their current ATH. So, I don't think we are in the altcoins season. Moreover, if we learned the history of altcoins season, it is probably to happen after the Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin halving isn't started yet, so it is not the time for altcoins season. We must be patient to wait for the altcoins season. I think it may happen in Q3 - Q4 of this year. It is still Q1 of 2024, mate.

[sampoerna]

Indeed, if we look at the index, it is already above 75, which means that usually this is already an alt season. It could be that this is just the beginning because the index is not that far along yet, but what is certain is that this is quite a significant change for altcoins, which in fact we have experienced critical times that have made many altcoins unable to survive in the market.

However, whether this alt season can really survive and develop further will depend on what conditions will be in the future. Because after all this has not yet reached the true bullish era. That's it, I've just experienced the ETF and haven't experienced the halffing, so there will still be some developments in the future which might make the index much higher or even drop for a while in preparation for the real altseason. Whatever it is, we should be able to take advantage of all forms to make a profit.

[IyemRoker]

Altcoins season or not still if I don't have a lot of altcoins for hold.
I have also missed the best purchase of Altcoins when the price of Bitcoin is at 20,000 USD in 2022.
At that time in 2022 more precisely in September and the price of Bitcoin 17,000 USD all altcoins and many discounted but I instead ignored it.
If only at that time I bought more altcoins maybe now I already have a profit of more than 200%, there are even coins that have passed 10x like Altcoins Bakery (Bake).

[Nwada001]

Altcoins season or not still if I don't have a lot of altcoins for hold.
I have also missed the best purchase of Altcoins when the price of Bitcoin is at 20,000 USD in 2022.
At that time in 2022 more precisely in September and the price of Bitcoin 17,000 USD all altcoins and many discounted but I instead ignored it.
If only at that time I bought more altcoins maybe now I already have a profit of more than 200%, there are even coins that have passed 10x like Altcoins Bakery (Bake).

This is true, but just because we missed a lot of opportunities in the past to accumulate altcoins does not mean those opportunities are gone forever.
 
There are still some altcoins that have great potential, and if we look deeply into them, we can find something meaningful out of them, and they are worth investing a few cents in them in order for us not to regret our actions again. Just like you are recounting your 2020 experience, if you don't find it important to buy and hold a few of them again, I bet you might also be in the same situation in the next bull run as many altcoins will also join the train and move forward.
 
Back to the Op, the season also looks like altcoin season to me, but it's not going to last for long, especially for those altcoins that have already done more than 10x in the past. Only a few of them can sustain the growth, while others will have to fluctuate as usual.

[IyemRoker]

, I bet you might also be in the same situation in the next bull run as many altcoins will also join the train and move forward.

So, what altcoins do you expect so far to be able to rise more than 10x during the bull run later?
Are you the same as having trading experience at Token Bakery (Bake)?
Or maybe you have a choice of altcoins that you expect?

I also want to know what you expect from an altcoins so that I can buy more Altcoins at this time according to what you buy.

[MrSpasybo]

Indeed, if we look at the index, it is already above 75, which means that usually this is already an alt season. It could be that this is just the beginning because the index is not that far along yet, but what is certain is that this is quite a significant change for altcoins, which in fact we have experienced critical times that have made many altcoins unable to survive in the market.

However, whether this alt season can really survive and develop further will depend on what conditions will be in the future. Because after all this has not yet reached the true bullish era. That's it, I've just experienced the ETF and haven't experienced the halffing, so there will still be some developments in the future which might make the index much higher or even drop for a while in preparation for the real altseason. Whatever it is, we should be able to take advantage of all forms to make a profit.

When talking about Altseason, we will understand that: the whole market is "green" and most altcoins grow better than Bitcoin. We don't have that right now. BTC is moving sideways and Altcoins are slightly decreasing in price, the market is being cautious before the Halving, not being extremely FOMO and greedy.
I still think that the Season of this market lasts 1 year, not 3 months and we should use Altcoin Year Index.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

According to this definition and available data, current Index = 78 > 75 and we are in Altseason. Should we switch to investing in Altcoins to follow the Altcoins boom and gain x10, x50, x100 profits???

I do not think so. I don't dare give a definition of Altseason, but here's what I expect from Altseason:

• BTC halving occurs, confirming the start of a new cycle.
• BTC price has reached a high price to confirm the growth trend, BTC.D increased sharply.
• BTC price goes sideways, money flows to Altcoins.
• Most of the top altcoins increased in price stronger than BTC, BTC.D decreased.

I think it's easier said than done. It is very easy to invest in an altcoin and expect to make a huge profit, like up to 100x, but there is a probability that the token will pump or not. Sometimes there are some altcoins you can invest in, even if you think that it was in the right season, but it will be very funny how other altcoins might be pumping in price but that particular one you invested in will be depreciating in value.

It's true that some investors have made great profits from some altcoins, but getting to know the particular altcoin that will make you a millionaire is very rare, unless you just want to invest randomly in any altcoin with the hope that any one of them can generate a good profit for you.

[MrSpasybo]

I think it's easier said than done. It is very easy to invest in an altcoin and expect to make a huge profit, like up to 100x, but there is a probability that the token will pump or not. Sometimes there are some altcoins you can invest in, even if you think that it was in the right season, but it will be very funny how other altcoins might be pumping in price but that particular one you invested in will be depreciating in value.

It's true that some investors have made great profits from some altcoins, but getting to know the particular altcoin that will make you a millionaire is very rare, unless you just want to invest randomly in any altcoin with the hope that any one of them can generate a good profit for you.

I agree with you, BTC is always the safest investment in this crypto market, and it also ensures quite good profits for investors.

I just present my understanding of market fluctuations in each cycle, this can be found in many places, I did not invent it.

I always think that BTC should make up the majority of the investment portfolio, with only a small portion of capital invested in altcoins to increase profits. However, everything depends on each person's risk appetite and ability, if altcoins can bring profit then it is worth investing.

Anyway, every investment decision is personal ^^

[Mr. Magkaisa]

     -   If I look at the image you showed here, it is clear that we are not yet in the altcoin season; maybe we are getting closer to that thing, but we are not at that stage yet. then this decline in Bitcoin is showing and proving that the demand for Bitcoin is high.

And it is also obvious that institutional investors are increasing their Bitcoin assets for the upcoming bull run. So it is very likely that Bitcoin's rally will start after the Bitcoin halving.

[joniboini]

We need a solution to guide the process of investing in Altcoins. My solution: change your perspective on Season.

• 1 year = 1 weather cycle with 4 seasons, each season lasts 3 months = 90 days.
• 1 crypto market cycle = 4 years, each year represents 1 crypto season.

As such, Altcoin Year Index should be used. Data becomes less noisy and easier to track. This index is only at 27, showing that we are not yet in Altseason, but it is recovering to above 25, meaning that the growth potential of Altcoins right now is huge. We can start tracking Altcoins and prepare to shift our investment from BTC to Altcoins.

From the link that you posted, this yearly index is basically the same 75 top altcoins performance but stretched out to 1 year or so right? Have you calculated how many top coins are moving in and out of the top 75 to see if the tracking is reliable or not? It feels like the data is still heavily distorted by other things while the cut-off is also arbitrary. Why not 100, or even 10 top coins? I don't feel confident on metrics like this, considering how easy it is for the website, and company to arbitrarily change the calculation to suit their own narrative about the market.