USA 2024 Elections betting

[babo]

for me the probability is 50.50
maybe before when Biden was around I would have told you that he was 70% Trump and 30% Biden
but with Kamala Harris our friend Donald Trump was unable to run a decent campaign, I think he had prepared everything based on Joe Biden's debacles
and he was taken aback

[pawel7777]

What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

[electronicash]

What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

don't know which poll you are looking at but most polls don't favor Kamala afaik, they are all Trump. it will likely be a landslide win for Trump.
however this had happened before where Trump was the favored and then he didn't win which the reason for the J6. the media though is promoting Kamala and depicting Trump as the villain which the J6 might happen again if Trump loses.

Trump supporters is much larger withe the help of Elon and clearly Trump is more popular and well liked by the people.

[MUGNIA]

What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

don't know which poll you are looking at but most polls don't favor Kamala afaik, they are all Trump. it will likely be a landslide win for Trump.
however this had happened before where Trump was the favored and then he didn't win which the reason for the J6. the media though is promoting Kamala and depicting Trump as the villain which the J6 might happen again if Trump loses.

Trump supporters is much larger withe the help of Elon and clearly Trump is more popular and well liked by the people.

but will this be real, because as we know most of the time during the campaign we get support, and when the vote count is out of control, as happened previously when Trump dominated the campaign after the count he lost, but I personally hope that Trump will become president so that crtpyo is safe and its price will increase

[Baofeng]

What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

don't know which poll you are looking at but most polls don't favor Kamala afaik, they are all Trump. it will likely be a landslide win for Trump.
however this had happened before where Trump was the favored and then he didn't win which the reason for the J6. the media though is promoting Kamala and depicting Trump as the villain which the J6 might happen again if Trump loses.

Trump supporters is much larger withe the help of Elon and clearly Trump is more popular and well liked by the people.

Still close though if we look at reports of some media, although Trump leads but with the slimest of the margin. Although if we look at it, in the last couple of days, there has been a lot of pump in the price, maybe they are anticipating a Trump win?

Maybe? but let's see till Trump gets elected in the office, if he did, I'm sure we might see $80k-$90k at the end of the year or even exceeding that.

[electronicash]

What do you guys think of the mismatch between the polls, that seem to favour Kamala Harris recently (it can change fast though) and the betting odds, where Donald Trump is a decisive favourite, with odds around x1.50 while odds for Harris are around x2.62.

Who/what is more trustworthy in predicting the result: bettors and bookies, who put their money on the line, or the polls?

I think the advantage of the polls is that they can measure and adjust to the changing situation a bit quicker than the betting odds.

don't know which poll you are looking at but most polls don't favor Kamala afaik, they are all Trump. it will likely be a landslide win for Trump.
however this had happened before where Trump was the favored and then he didn't win which the reason for the J6. the media though is promoting Kamala and depicting Trump as the villain which the J6 might happen again if Trump loses.

Trump supporters is much larger withe the help of Elon and clearly Trump is more popular and well liked by the people.

Still close though if we look at reports of some media, although Trump leads but with the slimest of the margin. Although if we look at it, in the last couple of days, there has been a lot of pump in the price, maybe they are anticipating a Trump win?

Maybe? but let's see till Trump gets elected in the office, if he did, I'm sure we might see $80k-$90k at the end of the year or even exceeding that.

after Trump appeared in Joe Rogan podcast, the support came pouring for Trump. i think that episode locked the win for Trump but we'll find out what could happen by Nov5.

this speculation may not be related to your bet. there is a possibility also that something will happen base on what the speculations of the mad preppers, they are often correct with their paranoia that something will happen before the election or before the inauguration in Jan 2025 which Biden will declare martial law lol

[Zed0X]

^ Yeah, it seems the podcast did him a slot of favor. On the martial law, hmmm I've also seen some post that there will never be an election. I thought it was just taunt that it will be a landslide victory for one party. I wonder if there will be an adverse effect on BTC if Biden decides to remain in power.

[Jating]

^ Yeah, it seems the podcast did him a slot of favor. On the martial law, hmmm I've also seen some post that there will never be an election. I thought it was just taunt that it will be a landslide victory for one party. I wonder if there will be an adverse effect on BTC if Biden decides to remain in power.

Technically, Biden or Kamala is going to be very bad for us, as they have a hard line stance against crypto in general. However, we all know that Bitcoin can't be stop, just like during the pandemic wherein we really did not know what's going to happen as the world is on a lockdown. However, we did survived, have a new all time high and the rest is history.

As for Trump being a guest in the podcast, yeah, it seems that it did had a lot of hype. I remember that Trump jokingly said that Joe will not go and bet on Kamala, but he knows Joe loves Khabib, Lol, that joke alone might struck to some on us in a nice way specially if we know that Joe loves MMA and UFC.

[electronicash]

^ Yeah, it seems the podcast did him a slot of favor. On the martial law, hmmm I've also seen some post that there will never be an election. I thought it was just taunt that it will be a landslide victory for one party. I wonder if there will be an adverse effect on BTC if Biden decides to remain in power.

Technically, Biden or Kamala is going to be very bad for us, as they have a hard line stance against crypto in general. However, we all know that Bitcoin can't be stop, just like during the pandemic wherein we really did not know what's going to happen as the world is on a lockdown. However, we did survived, have a new all time high and the rest is history.

As for Trump being a guest in the podcast, yeah, it seems that it did had a lot of hype. I remember that Trump jokingly said that Joe will not go and bet on Kamala, but he knows Joe loves Khabib, Lol, that joke alone might struck to some on us in a nice way specially if we know that Joe loves MMA and UFC.

this could be because we are still uncertain whether Trump will really do what he promised to do for BTC. the only way we can find out is if he wins. but at least Trump is offering hope for crypto unlike Kamala who says nothing about it.

Trump is also an MMA fan. in the start of campaign period, he used to attend a UFC events too which Dana is giving him and grand entrance and fans are also cheering. the last time i think it was the fight of Covington wearing Trump hat.

[knowngunman]

for me the probability is 50.50
maybe before when Biden was around I would have told you that he was 70% Trump and 30% Biden
but with Kamala Harris our friend Donald Trump was unable to run a decent campaign, I think he had prepared everything based on Joe Biden's debacles
and he was taken aback

Yeah they played a kind of Maradona game with Trump.

But I still don't think the probability is 50:50. Perhaps 60 against 50 in favor of Donald Trump. I'm not from USA but from what I am seeing online, Trump stand a better chance than Kamala but you know election is not by media hype and of course the power of incumbency will play it role for Kamala.

[Rubel007]

for me the probability is 50.50
maybe before when Biden was around I would have told you that he was 70% Trump and 30% Biden
but with Kamala Harris our friend Donald Trump was unable to run a decent campaign, I think he had prepared everything based on Joe Biden's debacles
and he was taken aback

Yeah they played a kind of Maradona game with Trump.

But I still don't think the probability is 50:50. Perhaps 60 against 50 in favor of Donald Trump. I'm not from USA but from what I am seeing online, Trump stand a better chance than Kamala but you know election is not by media hype and of course the power of incumbency will play it role for Kamala.

Even just a month before the election, Kamala Harris's chances were increasing but with time it has started to decrease. At this point, Trump seems to be slightly ahead. But the important thing is that the voters can change their mind at any time that's why we can't trust anything till the election. There is no way to be sure about either depending on the media. There can always be some exaggeration in the media which will be hard to match with reality.

[Jating]

for me the probability is 50.50
maybe before when Biden was around I would have told you that he was 70% Trump and 30% Biden
but with Kamala Harris our friend Donald Trump was unable to run a decent campaign, I think he had prepared everything based on Joe Biden's debacles
and he was taken aback

Yeah they played a kind of Maradona game with Trump.

But I still don't think the probability is 50:50. Perhaps 60 against 50 in favor of Donald Trump. I'm not from USA but from what I am seeing online, Trump stand a better chance than Kamala but you know election is not by media hype and of course the power of incumbency will play it role for Kamala.

Even just a month before the election, Kamala Harris's chances were increasing but with time it has started to decrease. At this point, Trump seems to be slightly ahead. But the important thing is that the voters can change their mind at any time that's why we can't trust anything till the election. There is no way to be sure about either depending on the media. There can always be some exaggeration in the media which will be hard to match with reality.

For me still going to be close, and so we really don't know who is going to win in the end. Yeah, it was Trump leading in the beginning against Biden, and when Kamala takes over, she took the lead from Trump. But as the election gets closer, Trump is cutting that lead and now he is back on the driver side.

However, the data still points that Trump just had a slim lead. So still up to the US voters who will they vote, will they like to make a history with Kamala as the first female US President? Or re-elected Trump?

[electronicash]

^ Yeah, it seems the podcast did him a slot of favor. On the martial law, hmmm I've also seen some post that there will never be an election. I thought it was just taunt that it will be a landslide victory for one party. I wonder if there will be an adverse effect on BTC if Biden decides to remain in power.

i read some reports they are deploying national guards to the swing states so yep its almost about to happen, depends on who would win i think. or it could happen in the inauguration.
none of the two Kamala and Trump will concede in this race even if its an obvious result. there will be protest just like what is going on in Venezuela when even when Maduro wins, the other party will just keep protesting spreading news and fermenting tensions.

back in the days, we only see this tensions and election crime happens in 3rd world countries but now we're seeing it big countries.

[Zed0X]

~
back in the days, we only see this tensions and election crime happens in 3rd world countries but now we're seeing it big countries.

I haven't followed enough elections in developed countries to agree or disagree on that but I saw how nasty it was in the last two POTUS elections.

Anyway, I've seen some predictions on Poly and it seems bettors are going for a Trump win at around 67% probability.

[pawel7777]

We're entering the final hours of voting.
The bets are still open and Trump is still a favourite with odds of around x1.58, odds for Kamala being x2.50
Not sure if this is accurate but Elon Musk has been reporting earlier that men are voting in record numbers, which, if true, should be a good sign for Trump. I can't find that info to be confirmed anywhere else though.