What if the big bull run doesn't happen?

[target]

The problem with no bull run to ATH is that we get no profit and we as crypro investors will struggle the same as how the non investor would suffer the rising prices while there is coming recession. 

It only looks like we are all in for a surprise whennwe all expect bull run after halving yet the manipulation wins.

[Lucius]

I'd be disappointed. What is seemingly a good time to invest because the year is a halving year turned out to be a no profit year. Just thinking about how much time wasted when I could have just invest in gold because its price is more profitable.
~snip~

If you are an investor only for the short term and if you only do it before or after the halving then it makes some sense to talk about gold as an alternative, but in a much bigger picture BTC has surpassed the price of gold astronomically in a period of only 15 years. I want to say that everyone who believed in the success of BTC is still in solid profit today, because not so long ago we had the price of BTC below $20k ($15.5k), and a few weeks ago it was below $50k.

If you wanted to avoid risks, you should have directed part of your investments to something else, because that's what people who want to insure themselves do.

~snip~
Well, thinking of price that will go double isn't imaginable yet in my part, but i expect at least quarter of it or at least at 80k-90k range.

By the end of the year, I'm also skeptical that it would happen, but by the end of 2025 it is realistic to expect 100k+ if things work out the way they should.

I wen with "I will not sell anything more than what I need"
Regarding the question in OP, nothing much will change for me as I certainly won't get rid off bitcoin or sell any significant amount (unless I am aboslutely foced to due life circumstances). Having said that, of course I will be a little bit disappointed as I had some plans if bitcoin reaches 100k+ but that's nothing that can't wait another cycle.

I have the same thinking, because although I don't believe that nothing positive will happen, it won't be a tragedy if we don't reach a new ATH by the end of this year or next year - realistically, we have already reached one, it just happened before the halving.

Honestly, I won't care too much because I'm already pessimistic about the future, if it beats by a considerable margin average stock gains and obviously inflation it would still be good for me.  But there will be a lot of opium and denial around, can't wait to see the theories about how evil organizations are manipulating the price and so on, to be honest, a part of me wants that just once instead of a bullish year to have bearish one so we can see the true faces of those believers!

It's true, if you take into account everything that's happening, the future doesn't look very bright, but I'm an optimist by nature and as long as there's hope that it will get better, I want to believe that we shouldn't look at everything in a dark tone. There are actually very few "believers", the more accurate word would be "opportunists", but we are all somewhat in this second category, although some obviously have life situations that allow them not to depend entirely on the price of BTC.

[nakmantu99]

-snip-
 but the real question is how will people react if something like that doesn't happen?

Give your honest answers in the pool

After the halving occurred the price looked weaker and nothing major happened, it was just close to the last ATH price but was not able to reach the new ATH or at the ATH target most people is $100k++.

It's a little disappointing if the big bull run really doesn't happen, but anything can happen in crypto. When the majority of holders are already disbelieving and pessimistic that a big bull run will not happen, that is where the opportunity for a bullrun begins. 

However, I will still hold and collect as many Bitcoins as I can, put in my bag as well as some of the top altcoins. 

This is my reaction and not necessarily the reaction I have will be the same as everyone else, but this time I will not miss the opportunity to buy more bitcoin before the big bullrun happens.

Our reaction is almost the same because I also collect as much bitcoin as possible right now and store it in my wallet. Although there are some members who are pessimistic that the bull run will never happen because bitcoin has reached ATH before bitcoin halving but I have the same belief as the previous bulls, that the bullish season will occur a year after bitcoin halving unless there is an extraordinary event globally that makes the bullish season never happen.

[Themepen]

I strongly believe that it will happen because long term view is saying this. And I think this bull run will be massive.
I have accumulated many altcoins and Bitcoin too. And I hope I will get huge profit from them.

But if it will not happen so this will be a disappointing moment for me. But still I believe that this will happen soon. So let's wait for that moment. This is my second bull runs I didn't get anything from the last bull run because at that time I was new. But I saw Bitcoin $4000 to $70000. But I didn't invest at that time but now I am in and waiting.

[Stompix]

There are actually very few "believers", the more accurate word would be "opportunists", but we are all somewhat in this second category, although some obviously have life situations that allow them not to depend entirely on the price of BTC.

I think that still opportunists are right now at in advantage, if they bought 1-2 years ago they are still counting profits.

If I look back, from a long-term holder the whole thing is a lot more disappointing, I mean if I would look only for $, I could have sold in 2021 at 69k theoretically and now 3 years later I can sell at 59k, in things of unrealized profits we're really behind, especially if we count inflation or the 30% the stock market gained from then.

But as I said, the sadist in me would really want to experience 3-4 years of running around these same levels, just to get rid of these "investors".

[Lucius]

~snip~
If I look back, from a long-term holder the whole thing is a lot more disappointing, I mean if I would look only for $, I could have sold in 2021 at 69k theoretically and now 3 years later I can sell at 59k, in things of unrealized profits we're really behind, especially if we count inflation or the 30% the stock market gained from then.

You are right to some extent, because if we look at those who have a history of investing in BTC a little more than 4-5 years (which for some is a very long time), then we can say that those who invest through DCA for the past ten years have no (or almost no) reason to be dissatisfied. The only question is what is the percentage of such investors, that is, those who can not only wait, but have such unrealized profit that it is almost incomparable to anything else.

But as I said, the sadist in me would really want to experience 3-4 years of running around these same levels, just to get rid of these "investors".

I don't know if it would change anything, because they would probably come back with the first sign of a serious recovery, and in the meantime they would look for opportunities in altcoins. Only without strong BTC, most altcoins remain at the same level (at best) or lose their value even faster.

[Asiska02]

What everyone expects to happen in the year of the halving is a big bull run that, if nothing else, will at least double the price of BTC, and somehow most people take that for granted - but the real question is how will people react if something like that doesn't happen?

Give your honest answers in the pool

I will be disappointed and I know a lot of people will also be. The reason why bitcoin is been adopted and have a very big impact is because at every bull run, the price it tends to rise to and make those that invested in it profitable is loved by all investors both big and small. Forget about the reason it was invented, for complete decentralization it was, a lot of people embraced it because of the value it gives back after a while which the time after halving do trigger the price to a new All Time High. Your thoughts about it maybe not happening must have been hovering in a lot of people’s mind but they won’t want to believe to keep such thought in mind. This cycle has been unpredictable and what people are expecting have not been the case. Optimism is what is keeping people from voicing out in my opinion.

[LogitechMouse]

Let's not pretend too much about some things, the majority "love" BTC because they believe it will bring them profit, the few appreciate it because it is a cryptocurrency with which they can make transactions anytime and with anyone.

What everyone expects to happen in the year of the halving is a big bull run that, if nothing else, will at least double the price of BTC, and somehow most people take that for granted - but the real question is how will people react if something like that doesn't happen?

I choose "I will not sell anything more than what I need."

As for our beliefs towards Bitcoin, most of the people sees it as an asset more than a currency and it's good. I want to use Bitcoin for various transaction, but I'm sure there are some who don't want to use it for various reasons, and also the mindset of "if they will use their Bitcoins for transactions, they might lose the opportunity for more profits" that's why they're holding it.

Well, if the bull run doesn't happen "at least this year or next year", I still have a plan B. I will sell almost half of my portfolio (Bitcoin and altcoins). I will not sell it at a loss of course, but if shit happens, I guess I'll just continue Dollar-Cost Averaging until the big bull run starts.

[taufik123]

Our reaction is almost the same because I also collect as much bitcoin as possible right now and store it in my wallet. Although there are some members who are pessimistic that the bull run will never happen because bitcoin has reached ATH before bitcoin halving but I have the same belief as the previous bulls, that the bullish season will occur a year after bitcoin halving unless there is an extraordinary event globally that makes the bullish season never happen.

Global events or the state of the world economy that are not good with the occurrence of wars between countries which certainly affect everything.
When more people are pessimistic about the next bullrun, this is the best opportunity to get into bitcoin, as it will be cheaper.

Remember when Warren Buffett said Bitcoin would hit 0 (ZERO), there were a lot of negative sentiments that came up, but when we already believe that it's just nonsense, it's a good chance to start buying more.

And the proof is when Warren Buffett said that after that Bitcoin was able to reach a new ATH and continue to rise until it was able to reach an ATH of $73k, now it is only necessary to wait for the ATH of $100k++ to be reached. Prepare your bag.

[Bobcrypto]

Let's not pretend too much about some things, the majority "love" BTC because they believe it will bring them profit, the few appreciate it because it is a cryptocurrency with which they can make transactions anytime and with anyone.

What everyone expects to happen in the year of the halving is a big bull run that, if nothing else, will at least double the price of BTC, and somehow most people take that for granted - but the real question is how will people react if something like that doesn't happen?

Give your honest answers in the pool


Recommendation for all members, if you are already quoting someone's post, edit (delete) the part that does not apply to your answer. Pyramidal quotes look really ugly and are completely unnecessary.

I tell you plainly, nothing will happen if the expected marker bull run could not come up as people think. One thing you must know is that many of the past expected bullish momentum are just market analysis from different experts, it has been proven that Bitcoin is difficult to predict, and i am  considering that the expected bull run as just the usual predictions that may easily fail.
As you might have observed, crypto market analysis is a probability, it can also be a 50/50 chances, some times some analyst can get it at 95%, and at certain time, a failure outcome.

[ZAINmalik75]

Let's not pretend too much about some things, the majority "love" BTC because they believe it will bring them profit, the few appreciate it because it is a cryptocurrency with which they can make transactions anytime and with anyone.

What everyone expects to happen in the year of the halving is a big bull run that, if nothing else, will at least double the price of BTC, and somehow most people take that for granted - but the real question is how will people react if something like that doesn't happen?

Give your honest answers in the pool


Recommendation for all members, if you are already quoting someone's post, edit (delete) the part that does not apply to your answer. Pyramidal quotes look really ugly and are completely unnecessary.

I will realize the mistake first just like other investors and I already knew I am risking my money but with bull cycle end the risk is bigger we might have to wait for 4 years to get our profit again. I will not distrust BTC and won't talk badly about it because it something not new for us.

Old users already know its how market works if it was supposed to be bullish and it is not then we can only wait until it does. If BTC never pumped due to the crazy buying pressure before the halving event then that will be a big question in itself first but if it has not doubled then we can't really do anything.

[Stompix]

I don't know if it would change anything, because they would probably come back with the first sign of a serious recovery, and in the meantime they would look for opportunities in altcoins. Only without strong BTC, most altcoins remain at the same level (at best) or lose their value even faster.

It's going to be a shock way more than you think, once the 4-year cycle everyone takes for granted and looks at it like the words from the Bible will be broken it will change crypto from something that it's understood as hold every damn token cause it will be of value someday to a thing more relatable to the stock market. Once that belief is shattered it will suddenly look way more complicated and far riskier, and lots will abandon the get rich for doing nothing strategy.
I'm pretty confident it will also shatter a lot of the meme&co token industry!

[JISAN]

I do not know if the bull run is going to be big or mild but I definitely know that bitcoin will get to all-time high. It is also still possible that bitcoin will get to over $100 thousand. 2025 will still be for bulls but the bear market may start in late 2025.

It is not sure whether Bitcoin price will hit one hundred thousand dollars in 2025 but there is a high possibility that Bitcoin can make an ATH.  And if this happens, Bitcoin's bull run will definitely be seen.  If bitcoin bull run is not seen now then many people can lose because many people are collecting bitcoins for future bull run and investing huge amount in bitcoins.  Hopefully Bitcoin doesn't disappoint anyone. Because if we look at previous histories, we will not see any failure history of Bitcoin

[Parzival204]

People who have done analysis long ago will feel disappointed if the bullrun doesn't happen. Moreover, if they have prepared a big concept to sell their coins during the bullrun. And for people who don't have big expectations when the bullrun will be just normal. Remembering Bitcoin are more likely to be taken seriously by people who have invested a lot in this matter

[Sarionadukecom]

People who have done analysis long ago will feel disappointed if the bullrun doesn't happen. Moreover, if they have prepared a big concept to sell their coins during the bullrun. And for people who don't have big expectations when the bullrun will be just normal. Remembering Bitcoin are more likely to be taken seriously by people who have invested a lot in this matter

I think it'll happen but it also depends on manipulations from institutions. Probably in 2025. This year is for grabbing liquidity