In my experience as one who have engaged in active betting for a longtime now I can say with so much confidence that betting is 40% skills and 60% luck
You can go ahead to check head to head, lineup, current form and injury list but I can confirm that a lot of factors that are unforseen affect the outcome of an event.
Unforseen outcomes likes red card few minutes into the game, injury, weather and so many other unforseen factors that cannot be predetermined
It would have been preferable if luck had been 60%, as you mentioned, but I believe luck accounts for 70% in sports betting and 99% in casinos. You could spend all day reading club history, checking stats from various platforms, and checking predictions from various pundit-owned websites and still not win. You can also make predictions without using statistics and win through luck. As you mentioned, some unforeseen factors influence predictions; however, it is these factors that bring luck and favor other gamblers.
I recall vividly predicting a game, and unfortunately, 30 minutes into one of the games, my team was losing 2:0, and I predicted the other team to win. My friend bet on the team that was leading by two goals under 1.5 goals, implying that they would not score two goals in the match, and he lost in the first half. Fortunately for me, the team received a red card 5 minutes into the second half, and 20 minutes later, my team equalized the goals, and 15 minutes later, they scored a penalty, making it 2:3 and the game ended. The red card brought me luck while affecting other gamblers. So, it is the unforeseeable factors that determine which gambler will be lucky.