We might be facing some extremely big volatility

[MrSpasybo]

This is Bitcoin's first ever halving circle where Bitcoin is not following any of its previous history. Not only Bitcoin but the whole market has forgotten the previous history, this is because some billionaires entered the market and spread different news at different times and destabilized the market. And only small investors are affected from here. All the small and panic investors are pocketing all the money. So the crypto market is now very much like gambling. So I think it is better to refrain from trading or investment to be safe at this time. Because now investing in crypto market is very high risk

Many investors were confident they'd master their investment plans for the 2025 cycle, given their past cycle experiences, but the market's given them a reality check with some fresh history: BTC hit a new ATH pre-halving, BTC price completed a 5-wave impulse structure in January 2025, and the memecoin frenzy's causing inefficient fund allocation.

I'm also pretty puzzled analyzing this cycle market movements. The only thing I still trust is cyclicality: we just had the halving, and 2025 should be a successful year for BTC and the entire crypto market. I've mentioned a target of $150K-170K, and I'm still waiting for BTC price to reach that range this year, ready to take profits and step away before the crypto winter hits ^^

[Mr. Magkaisa]

        -       In my personal assessment, I really see that there will be a big volatility or fall in the price of bitcoin before there is a massive rally towards the price you are talking about op, that's what I really see. Although this is still my speculation.

Now, in the alts season, I think it can start in the middle of this year or even earlier and the altcoins season will only happen for a few months,
maybe 2 or 3 months in my opinion.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

This is very possible when the market is about to rise or fall, we can check to see more from the way of how our chart performances are, using any coin as a practical example, during this period of high volatility, we must know how to endure for the market, also know about it entry points, exit points as well as how we are going to be at upper edge against any form of lost at the market volatility.

[MrSpasybo]

This is very possible when the market is about to rise or fall, we can check to see more from the way of how our chart performances are, using any coin as a practical example, during this period of high volatility, we must know how to endure for the market, also know about it entry points, exit points as well as how we are going to be at upper edge against any form of lost at the market volatility.

Well, I always wish I could pinpoint the exact buy and sell points. Sadly, I still have a lot to learn before I can make a living trading in this market. I opt for the simplest approach possible so everyone can follow and understand my investment view. It's also quite safe and profitable for investors, even if I can't buy the dip & sell the top ^^

BTC price is still moving sideways at $82K, I'm pretty excited watching the price chart and waiting for a big move!

[sampoerna]

What's your take on the market? Do you think the BTC price will go up or down in the next few weeks, and what's the target for that move?

Because I have already held and when the BTC price is still above $ 100k and I don't take all the profits, then I can only surrender and don't want to do anything except to continue holding it first. I think that is the wisest choice for me, by keeping holding, because even if I sell it now, it will actually make us lose and regret it later. Of course, all must be calculated how the profits and losses are. But again, for people like me who do long-term holding, this kind of bad situation will not chance my plans to still keep holding

[BitMaxz]

BTC price is still moving sideways at $82K, I'm pretty excited watching the price chart and waiting for a big move!

From this week's structure, most of the breakouts in short terms are fake; it seems banks are hunting stop-loss or liquidity. I saw many position liquidated on the heatmap I can't trade these days there's something that changed the BTC price action.

Well, this type of price action I don't trade on this if it's always against on my predicted price.

[Nheer]

BTC price is still moving sideways at $82K, I'm pretty excited watching the price chart and waiting for a big move!

From this week's structure, most of the breakouts in short terms are fake; it seems banks are hunting stop-loss or liquidity. I saw many position liquidated on the heatmap I can't trade these days there's something that changed the BTC price action.

Well, this type of price action I don't trade on this if it's always against on my predicted price.

It better to stay off the market than letting the market take advantage of you, I couldn’t even trade also base on the market structure everything seems to be unpredictable but with better understanding and perfect strategy a lot are still making big profits from the same market we run off.
It better to avoid loss and wait patiently for the perfect opportunity than rushing into trading patience will get us to where we are going it just need time.

[Bobcrypto]

        -       In my personal assessment, I really see that there will be a big volatility or fall in the price of bitcoin before there is a massive rally towards the price you are talking about op, that's what I really see. Although this is still my speculation.

Now, in the alts season, I think it can start in the middle of this year or even earlier and the altcoins season will only happen for a few months,
maybe 2 or 3 months in my opinion.

Well, your may be right as regards the duration of the anticipated altcoins season, that is, if it finally start at all. However, based on the previous altcoins season, like in 2021, the season was just about five weeks. I may be wrong, but altcoins season has been on a short periods, though change is constant, i hope we have a longer altcoins season in 2025.
As far as the Bitcoin price is concerned, it appears that more side ways movements is likely before a bounce, probably a break above $84k first, but a break below $80k may send us to $77k, then we may start an uptrends movements. Let see how it goes on either direction in the coming weeks.

[Findingnemo]

I am not a technical analysis person but just wanted to share my perspective though, BTC exploded way early that it's supposed to be due to the Trump manipulation about crypto market then the correction happened later when people realised it's been over overvalued that distorted it's usual growth. So on its own the price will pace up and reach atleast 130K range before going completely bearish.

[Bobcrypto]

Anyway, we've got to be prepared for anything. At least, I have a few criteria like that to keep an eye on and act when needed.

What's your take on the market? Do you think the BTC price will go up or down in the next few weeks, and what's the target for that move?

Here's my optimistic take: BTC will bounce back soon once the tariff tensions smooth out. This season won't fizzle out right at the start of 2025, and BTC's price isn't high enough yet to sustain a long term uptrend.

Fear always has a way of sounding convincing, but ultimately, FOMO will kick back in and take over. The important thing is, BTC is sitting at a very strong price point, and we can stay optimistic about what's ahead.

Currently Bitcoin recent price action is facing increased selling pressure, particularly from short term holders who bought Bitcoin above $83k. I think that with 20% of total supply at loss, many of the traders/holders will sell to cut losses which may send the prices below $80k. There is indication that there are weak demands, however a bounce is likely if Bitcoin maintain stability above $80k
As a matter of facts, fear brings investors sentiments, and FOMO is part of sentiments on either ways, that is, a buy/sell situations.

[Vx1]

BTC price is still moving sideways at $82K, I'm pretty excited watching the price chart and waiting for a big move!

From this week's structure, most of the breakouts in short terms are fake; it seems banks are hunting stop-loss or liquidity. I saw many position liquidated on the heatmap I can't trade these days there's something that changed the BTC price action.

Well, this type of price action I don't trade on this if it's always against on my predicted price.

It better to stay off the market than letting the market take advantage of you, I couldn’t even trade also base on the market structure everything seems to be unpredictable but with better understanding and perfect strategy a lot are still making big profits from the same market we run off.
It better to avoid loss and wait patiently for the perfect opportunity than rushing into trading patience will get us to where we are going it just need time.

We must think positively and have high confidence in getting profit from this trade, it is indeed not easy and often there is loss here. Price changes that are difficult to predict and very significant often make us almost desperate, but we need to know that many people are successful from this trade. If we can't do that, then we need to learn again.

[MrSpasybo]

I am not a technical analysis person but just wanted to share my perspective though, BTC exploded way early that it's supposed to be due to the Trump manipulation about crypto market then the correction happened later when people realised it's been over overvalued that distorted it's usual growth. So on its own the price will pace up and reach atleast 130K range before going completely bearish.

I don't think Trump is the whale behind all the crypto market manipulation, especially for BTC price. We're in a different cycle: new ATH before halving, BTC.D constantly rising, and memecoins causing unusual money flow. However, I'm not surprised or blaming Trump either, because the market always finds ways to surprise investors and make them lose ^^

I have high expectations for Trump actions in the near future, because he's become an influential voice affecting short-term market volatility. If tariffs are compromised early, we could have a favorable global financial environment as soon as the FED cuts interest rates. Conversely, if tensions persist, the market may experience a black swan event before resuming growth.

[electronicash]

i look into my chart and i see we are using different indicators though.  should there be a different candle patterns when you look it under BTC/USDT instead of BTC/USD? seem to confuse me when looking at longer time frame.

i'm seeing trend will change sooner to down trend when it pump higher again but not reaching to anew ATH and then dumps again.

[taufik123]

-snip-
i'm seeing trend will change sooner to down trend when it pump higher again but not reaching to anew ATH and then dumps again.

It only needs to reach the Resistance point where Bitcoin will be free from the decline that continues to occur and this is also caused by bad fundamentals because there is a lot of FUD in circulation.

An increase will definitely occur after this pretty crazy decline, I still believe Bitcoin will reach a new ATH and then the Altcoin will follow with a pretty high price recovery.

[MrSpasybo]

i look into my chart and i see we are using different indicators though.  should there be a different candle patterns when you look it under BTC/USDT instead of BTC/USD? seem to confuse me when looking at longer time frame.

i'm seeing trend will change sooner to down trend when it pump higher again but not reaching to anew ATH and then dumps again.

I think BTC/USDT and BTC/USD are pretty similar. You might try adjusting to a Logarithmic scale instead of an Arithmetic scale. I had a topic on these two scales when using Fibo, you can check it out.

You might be thinking that the BTC price is just a technical bounce, before returning to the ongoing downtrend. That could totally be true if we're in wave A and soon heading to wave B. In a Flat corrective wave structure, the peak (B) can definitely be higher than the peak (5) and we'll have a new ATH at $150K-170K. That's my personal expectation ^^

• You use Fibonacci on the Arithmetic or Logarithmic scale?