Analysts: Bitcoin cycle might have been shifted

[MrSpasybo]

There are growing concerns that the Bitcoin four year circle might had been shifted based on factors like, high numbers institutional investors, demands, growing interest from the US, the adoptions of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and others.
Again, 2025 is supposed to kick start bitcoin new circle but there are insinuation and speculations of a bear run, and because of this various market ideas, some market analysts suggest that Bitcoin four year circle is not ineffective as it used to be, the circle might have been permanently shifted,  some analyst insisted. What do you think?

I don't think rushing to conclusions about the cyclical nature of BTC and the crypto market right now is appropriate. I'll make my own assessment of this when we get to mid-2026. If we still have BTC ATH and the start of the crypto winter between now and then, the market will repeat history. Otherwise, we'll have new history: cycles being shortened or lengthened.

Every investor has their own perspective when looking at the market; to me, those perspectives don't mean much. Sometimes, KOLs just want to say what the community wants to hear instead of what's likely to happen in the market. Investors should also be smart and disciplined to make profits, don't completely believe what the media feeds us.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

The circles may still remains as they were, but only the pattern to which they take effect and moves the market that might be changed, because if we are to compare the present market to the previous ones we have been having, there are lots to talk about on it and we may not really have much to proof on all these for now until we go further to see where its going, there have been series of changes from the previous patterns and that cannot be the basis for our conclusion yet except the facts are well established.

[Asiska02]

There are growing concerns that the Bitcoin four year cycle might had been shifted based on factors like, high numbers institutional investors, demands, growing interest from the US, the adoptions of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and others.

Everything that you’ve listed above may actually have caused a lot of effect in the market and that’s why we are seeing the market performing in this way. Although, many still feel all of this cannot annul it change the normal consensus on how this market works, so things will still fall in place and we’ll witness a bull run soon.

Again, 2025 is supposed to kick start bitcoin new circle but there are insinuation and speculations of a bear run, and because of this various market ideas, some market analysts suggest that Bitcoin four year circle is not ineffective as it used to be, the circle might have been permanently shifted,  some analyst insisted. What do you think?

We can’t be so sure that the four years cycle has been shifted, maybe until we see the end of 2025 and we don’t see a bull run happening. Analysts may have done their own analysis and their results could be true but until a proven fact is established, this will remain to be a mere speculation.

[rby]

what i will say though is how often i have heard this already every after a bull run, people claim that there will be no more bearish cycle after that and instead bitcoin is entering a supercycle and guess what it has never happened so i doubt it will happen this year

This is the first time I have heard something like that since I have known about bitcoin. What makes them to be saying rubbish is because of the United States bitcoin reserve and how the all-time high came earlier than expected last year. But you are right that it is just a prediction. They can be right or wrong. What I see is that they can be wrong.

I have heard that narrative but I didn't take it so serious.  But this is the 3rd time I have heard it and the reason of the person that first carried this hypothesis is close to what you have said ;
1. He believed that ATH came before halving
2. ETF bitcoin happened in this cycle
3. Trump endorsement of bitcoin and US national reserve.
This could sustain the bitcoin price for long. So the author suggested that bull run could be longer than normal.

[Faisal2202]

There are growing concerns that the Bitcoin four year cycle might had been shifted based on factors like, high numbers institutional investors, demands, growing interest from the US, the adoptions of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and others.
Again, 2025 is supposed to kick start bitcoin new circle but there are insinuation and speculations of a bear run, and because of this various market ideas, some market analysts suggest that Bitcoin four year circle is not ineffective as it used to be, the circle might have been permanently shifted,  some analyst insisted. What do you think?

You are right, the cycle has been shifted, or as for some, it might not be. I am confused, but due to the adoption level and investment inflow in BTC, I think we might see a delay in the bear run because, sooner or later, Trump will add BTC and another crypto to his reserves, which can change the 4-year cycle, and some even say halving won't be a big factor for the bull run now, it will shift to 4-year political election.

But saying 4-year cycle has been shifted can't be true and it seems like a trap and it is a trap, someone has to become liquidity and this time money is just too much and we need more liquidity that's why these traps are being set IMO.

[Asiska02]

You are right, the cycle has been shifted, or as for some, it might not be. I am confused, but due to the adoption level and investment inflow in BTC, I think we might see a delay in the bear run because, sooner or later, Trump will add BTC and another crypto to his reserves, which can change the 4-year cycle, and some even say halving won't be a big factor for the bull run now, it will shift to 4-year political election.

But saying 4-year cycle has been shifted can't be true and it seems like a trap and it is a trap, someone has to become liquidity and this time money is just too much and we need more liquidity that's why these traps are being set IMO.

Your points also makes a lot of sense and that may also be considered. From speculations that the four years cycle has been shifted, and now the cycle been only related to Trump political period on seat, these are all speculations and until proven are just mere rumours. This should be regarded as a trap and people will fall for this trap because the market is already showing some signs of such. It is necessary that the market continues in this trajectory or people might fall victim of this trap before we realize.

[Z-tight]

Those are the views of those analysts, another group of people can give a completely different analysis, this is why i do not pay attention to what the people you call 'experts' say. BTC is there for us all to draw our own conclusions ourselves. While the network continues to mature, i don't think the cycle has shifted just yet.

[bayu7adi]

In 2025, this is indeed a fact that occurs like that, quite a lot of big investors have entered Bitcoin, and I myself feel that the price movement is faster than the previous cycle... however, to ensure that the cycle has changed, this does not completely agree... I still rely on the halving moment and the four-year cycle, and the large number of investors entering in 2025, in my opinion this is still in the old cycle too... because we need a price explosion to at least skyrocket bitcoin from $60k to $100k.

[bitterguy28]

In 2025, this is indeed a fact that occurs like that, quite a lot of big investors have entered Bitcoin, and I myself feel that the price movement is faster than the previous cycle... however, to ensure that the cycle has changed, this does not completely agree... I still rely on the halving moment and the four-year cycle, and the large number of investors entering in 2025, in my opinion this is still in the old cycle too... because we need a price explosion to at least skyrocket bitcoin from $60k to $100k.

i also believe the four cycle remains but we also cant deny that bitcoin has grown expeditiously from previous cycles it is now being acknowledged by numerous governments and being added to their reserves and being used as payment method for global trades

there is also now bitcoin etf and many more other companies investing in bitcoin so i understand why people might start thinking that all this can alter or even manipulate the market but i do not think so patterns are a big thing and they usually do happen for a reason

[Baofeng]

In 2025, this is indeed a fact that occurs like that, quite a lot of big investors have entered Bitcoin, and I myself feel that the price movement is faster than the previous cycle... however, to ensure that the cycle has changed, this does not completely agree... I still rely on the halving moment and the four-year cycle, and the large number of investors entering in 2025, in my opinion this is still in the old cycle too... because we need a price explosion to at least skyrocket bitcoin from $60k to $100k.

We will see how it goes, everyone has different thoughts on what will happen this year. But I think majority still thinks that we are not or cycle has not yet shifted. The cycle is going to be just the same, with or without ETF or pre halving ATH.

It's that there could be a lot of investors already, that's why we thought that it's very different as compare to the last cycle. Nevertheless the moment of truth or we will know everything in the last quarter of the year if we still have to get to a new all time high or not.

[rby]

Analysts: Bitcoin cycle might have ended.
This was what I erroneous read. I still believe that the cycle have ended. We might not see $100k again till another cycle.
Concerning the shifting of cycle, I believe the massive adoption of Bitcoin this period should impact the market. But I don't know how it will impact or if it had impacted already.

[NotATether]

Not at all, actually. This is completely normal behavior during a cycle.

After a bull run, it is normal for a sideways shift to occur. It happened in 2022 after the 2021 bull run, remember that?

It just means the market is oversaturated right now, and people are waiting until later to buy.

[rby]

Not at all, actually. This is completely normal behavior during a cycle.

After a bull run, it is normal for a sideways shift to occur. It happened in 2022 after the 2021 bull run, remember that?

It just means the market is oversaturated right now, and people are waiting until later to buy.

What do you have to say about the bitcoin 10% dip in 24 hours, is it a clear indication that we are in the bear market now? While we are discussing extension of bitcoin cycle, bear market has taken us unaware.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Not at all, actually. This is completely normal behavior during a cycle.

After a bull run, it is normal for a sideways shift to occur. It happened in 2022 after the 2021 bull run, remember that?

It just means the market is oversaturated right now, and people are waiting until later to buy.

What do you have to say about the bitcoin 10% dip in 24 hours, is it a clear indication that we are in the bear market now? While we are discussing extension of bitcoin cycle, bear market has taken us unaware.

Do you know why i may disagree with this, it was because the market dips to $74,500 and at the same time couldn't be prevented from going to $80,000 and we already saw it around $81,000 and that alone is the first conviction, also, assuming as it fell and then tries to rise but had a resistance above $80,000 then we may say truly we are now in the bear since or the market may choose it correction at this point forward under $80,000 but for now, lets wait to see the number of related bear we could have this month before we can conclude on where we are heading towards.

[Z-tight]

lets wait to see the number of related bear we could have this month before we can conclude on where we are heading towards.

A lot of bitcoiners are unsure of what direction we are heading right now and i completely understand. My recommendation as always is to be patient, if you are a long term investor, you don't need to fret or rush to make a decision, don't fall for fud and don't panic sell. If you wanna sell, it should be because you truly want to, not because you are scared.