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A big 2 goals advantage and half leg into the final except Arsenal can pull a strong 3 goals comeback in the second leg.
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It was also a bit humiliating to lose at home, but, in Arsenal's defence, they dominated with 70% possession and almost three times more shots on goal than Newcastle. But, at the end of the day, it's the goals that count.
Anyhow, the bookies do not give them much chances to qualify for the final. The odds for that to happen are x4.80, odds for Newcastle: x1.16. This says a lot.
Although 0-2 is not impossible to come back from, the fact that they'll be playing away and that Newcastle is on fire with seven wins in a row will make it close to impossible.